Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1

wilee81 GCWX Supporter Posts: 652	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:06:39 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, tgrgrd00, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by wilee81 on May 25, 2018 17:06:39 GMT -6 Go home, HMON. You're drunk.

Nola Mike Category 1 Posts: 346 Location: Hammond/Robert	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:19:28 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nola Mike on May 25, 2018 17:19:28 GMT -6 That model is always awful. How is that model still in use?

nem1987 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,744	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:20:38 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nem1987 on May 25, 2018 17:20:38 GMT -6 Tonight’s model runs should have the data from the HH today, right?

tgrgrd00 GCWX Supporter Posts: 836 Location: Kenner, LA	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:20:46 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tgrgrd00 on May 25, 2018 17:20:46 GMT -6 I've had a hard time trusting the HMON since it pulled this with Irma. I'd say the HMON has a problem over strengthening storms.

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,515	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:22:16 GMT -6 via mobile SKYSUMMIT likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on May 25, 2018 17:22:16 GMT -6 I would not trust the HMON, HWRF, or GFDL. They are terrible. I don’t even look at them to be honest.
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wilee81 GCWX Supporter Posts: 652	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:25:02 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by wilee81 on May 25, 2018 17:25:02 GMT -6 The NAM 12k never has Alberto recurving back to the NE after landfall. Keeps him plowing straight through SE La towards Alexandria.

lightningfan GCWX Supporter Posts: 319	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:26:11 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lightningfan on May 25, 2018 17:26:11 GMT -6 I think by tomorrow’s 12z on the Euro and all of the gfs runs till that moment will probably give us a better idea of where it’s going. Just my thoughts.
	Dave just Dave

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,382 Member is Online	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:37:15 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on May 25, 2018 17:37:15 GMT -6 Finally got on here. I am outside the watch herein Thibodaux. Wonder if it will get shifted further west.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

allicat1214
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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:40:47 GMT -6 via mobile Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this

Post by allicat1214 on May 25, 2018 17:40:47 GMT -6

I don't like this NAM. Not good for areas outside levee protection on West Bank, lower Jeff, St Bernard & Plaquemines. Would be test of portions of St Charles West Bank levee that is completed.

imgur.com/a/SEOKz0p

Sorry y'all. Posting from my phone. Can't figure out how to get image to load instead of link.

Last Edit: May 25, 2018 17:44:08 GMT -6 by allicat1214

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SKYSUMMIT
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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:41:42 GMT -6 weathergal, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 4 more like this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 25, 2018 17:41:42 GMT -6

May 25, 2018 17:22:16 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

I would not trust the HMON, HWRF, or GFDL. They are terrible. I don’t even look at them to be honest.

I always forget about them, but they are something to kill the time between globals LOL

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:47:41 GMT -6 lightningfan, allicat1214, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 25, 2018 17:47:41 GMT -6 Didn't see an actual graphic yet showing the Tropical Storm Watches:
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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:48:07 GMT -6 via mobile Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this

Post by allicat1214 on May 25, 2018 17:48:07 GMT -6

May 25, 2018 17:37:15 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Finally got on here. I am outside the watch herein Thibodaux. Wonder if it will get shifted further west.

Dylan posted GFS ensembles on Twitter. They are West of the operational GFS.

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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:50:53 GMT -6 allicat1214 likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 25, 2018 17:50:53 GMT -6

May 25, 2018 17:48:07 GMT -6 allicat1214 said:

May 25, 2018 17:37:15 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Finally got on here. I am outside the watch herein Thibodaux. Wonder if it will get shifted further west.

Dylan posted GFS ensembles on Twitter. They are West of the operational GFS.

Here are the GFS ensembles:

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CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:51:13 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 25, 2018 17:51:13 GMT -6

Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018

...ALBERTO MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN
CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

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Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Thread #1 May 25, 2018 17:51:24 GMT -6 via mobile allicat1214 likes this