Also. All 95's on the tornado watch in western Oklahoma. That has only happened one other time before. April 27, 2011.
For a newbie like me can you explain what the 95's mean?
I should have been more clear here .... When a watch is issued they give probabilities for things like 2 or more tornadoes, EF2+ tornado etc. There are several categories they do this for. For the watch in western OK, all of the categories had 95%+ chance probabilities.
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%
Last Edit: May 20, 2019 15:17:59 GMT -6 by weunice
The midwest is almost experiencing a "right front quadrant" with this strong storm system. Many of the tornado warnings associated with this line have been on the reverse side similar to tropical systems. They'll be moving into the St Louis area later this evening.
Last Edit: May 21, 2019 15:14:51 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
I fear for Jefferson City, Missouri this early morning. They took a hit from an absolute monster of a tornado. Some of the freeze frames from videos show at least a mile wide wedge.
I fear for Jefferson City, Missouri this early morning. They took a hit from an absolute monster of a tornado. Some of the freeze frames from videos show at least a mile wide wedge.
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on May 27, 2019 21:34:24 GMT -6
Potentially dangerous tornadoes hitting in Ohio tonight and people complaining that a TV station interrupted The Bachelorette. This meteorologist was having none of it!
Potentially dangerous tornadoes hitting in Ohio tonight and people complaining that a TV station interrupted The Bachelorette. This meteorologist was having none of it!
Sadly had a similar situation happen here in SELA a few months ago. I didn’t find out till the next day, but while I was sitting in my tub terrified out of my mind during a tornado warning, people were complaining online about the CMA’s being cut off during the warning. If I had been following a livestream of the news channel when the complaints filtered in I would’ve had some choice words for the complainers.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Central Texas Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch area this afternoon and evening, in an environment favorable for damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles south southwest of San Antonio TX to 40 miles south southeast of Palacios TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.
&&
Last Edit: Jun 6, 2019 14:44:28 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0382 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 701 PM EDT Thu Jun 06 2019
Areas affected...Middle Texas Coast
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 062300Z - 070300Z
SUMMARY...Sensitive ground conditions and highly efficient/quick bursts of heavy rainfall pose possible flash flooding conditions in Middle Texas Coast/Houston Metro.
DISCUSSION...GOES-16 Visible imagery denotes two lines of convection starting to rapidly develop across Southeastern TX. One generally parallel to I-10 and a second with more scattered cells along the sea-breeze generally parallel to the coast about 60 miles inland. Strong instability with MLCAPEs to 3000-3500 J/kg in a localized pool of saturated lower profiles (85H Tds near 18C and TPWS near 2") will support very strong, broad downdrafts capable of torrential downpours with hourly rates of 3"/hr possible. Cold pools/outflows already generated due to proximity to the edge of the EML (per GOES 7.3 WV channel) will aid in reducing localized totals toward 2-2.5"/hr given 15-20kt eastward propagation vectors with 15kts rear(SW) inflow. As cells head southeastward, cell mergers becoming increasingly possible given spreading of the 500-1000mb thickness fields. This may also support upscale growth into a much larger complex.
The concern for flash flooding is mostly related to the potential for repeat cells and redevelopment upstream as the shortwave speed max passes eastward into LA after 01z but also the highly saturated grounds that saw over 10-15" quite recently. National Water Model 40cm saturation field ratios are at 1 over a large area of the Middle TX Coast region and into the Houston Metro (particuarly W and S suburbs/exurbs). Rainfall totals of 2-4" are possible through the evening hours with maybe an isolated 5" maxima though over a smaller domain/scattered nature flash flooding is considered possible.
With the two big earthquakes in California the past two days, I wonder if they will get a really big one in the next few days that we feel. I haven't felt one here since 2010.
