Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 25, 2019 8:02:23 GMT -6
I'm just not seeing it with this frontal passage on Tuesday. Never believe in cold chasing rain type snow. It never happens around here.
I would be watching for the secondary wave that may come down the pipe once the cold is established around Thursday/Friday. You can see the wave in the Gulf on the models but it's too far suppressed to throw any moisture into the cold air. That can change though.
Agree to this Zack. Rain to snow behind the main front does not occur this far south. Got to have an initial push of cold air with a wave/low which I call the Goldilocks low. Not too strong, not too weak, not too far north, not too far south. Still like pattern over the next few weeks/early to mid February should be below normal temps with some precip. Some one in the south should get some wintry precip. Just who will the luck ones be?
Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 25, 2019 8:35:56 GMT -6
The coldest air on the globe will be moving into the U.S. next week and right when you need the Pacific to cooperate, it won't.
Our best chances at snow/sustained cold come when the PNA ridge is strong and positions itself off the coast of Washington. The West Coast ridge next week isn't that strong so it's allowing the west to east flow to push the cold waves quickly east. It's also keeping anything from digging south.
Could you imagine the -30 to -40 degree temps moving into the United States next week coming straight south. There is a reason why it doesn't happen often, it takes so many things to line up correctly.
^^^^^The NAO is also not cooperating, the core of the Arctic air has been coming down the GLs and then east towards eastern Canada, need that classic Greenland Block to stay in place but it has not.
I'm just not seeing it with this frontal passage on Tuesday. Never believe in cold chasing rain type snow. It never happens around here.
I would be watching for the secondary wave that may come down the pipe once the cold is established around Thursday/Friday. You can see the wave in the Gulf on the models but it's too far suppressed to throw any moisture into the cold air. That can change though.
Yeah, as we get closer to the front passage, I was afraid it was turning into our typical scenario of cold air chasing exiting precip. That rarely works out in our favor other than maybe a few flurries or sleet pellets. Perhaps that low will reposition itself further north, and we are all happy. Right now, it appears all the moisture stays off shore. Am I in the ballpark here with my thoughts?
I dont see anything in the forecast that is showing up any colder than what we been getting. I am almost fixing to move on from this winter.
I agree except that I had already given up weeks ago. Cold has been showing up on the models all winter but its always been at least 10-14 days out. Ready to move on from this crappy season and just move on to summer. Probably will be just like last year where we were in the 80's in feburary
Post by grisairgasm on Jan 25, 2019 10:54:06 GMT -6
Looks like a significant warming starting next weekend. It was on the Weather Channel. Yeah.....I know.... but it was Dr. Postel. Good explanation of the factors involved with this Arctic outbreak including stratosphere warming.
Post by grisairgasm on Jan 25, 2019 11:08:00 GMT -6
By the way, great job by NDG. He said weeks ago that the atmosphere was not cooperating for a widespread extreme southern arctic invasion. He always basis his reasoning with theory and sound science. And the exact same during the tropics.
Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Jan 25, 2019 11:45:14 GMT -6
It feels like if we get nothing out of this system, then that’s it for this Winter. This just looks to me like it’s our one and only chance on the Gulf Coast
Post by Zack Fradella on Jan 25, 2019 12:46:30 GMT -6
European starting to see that pattern end of week into next weekend. That I think is the timeframe we need to watch as the cold air will be positioned over the Great Lakes. Any kind of storm will be wintry across the Deep South.