Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2019
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement through roughly Day 5 (Saturday 3-9), with respect to spatial positioning of the main synoptic features. The GFS remains the more aggressive model with respect to deepening of the upper trough as it crosses the Rockies Day 4 and the Plains Day 5, and thus likewise depicts a much stronger surface cyclone during the Day 5 period.
Beyond Day 5, the faster GFS outpaces the slower ECMWF, to the degree that confidence in the potential for accuracy in a convective forecast beyond Day 5 is too low to warrant any areal inclusions.
In the Day 4 to 5 time range, when model agreement is higher, it appears that elevated convection will evolve across portions of Oklahoma and Kansas, and possibly northward into Nebraska. However, confidence is not high enough that any hail risk evident at this point warrants a Day 4 area.
Day 5, a surface cold front is progged to sweep across the central and southern Plains and into Missouri/Arkansas through the day, and then quickly eastward across the Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys overnight. While the strongest large-scale ascent is progged at this time to sweep across the Ozarks vicinity during the day, as the trough takes on a negative tilt, substantial questions remain as to the degree of moistening/destabilization that will be able to occur this far north. Greater severe risk may therefore remain farther south, from east Texas/Louisiana across the Lower Mississippi Valley region, and possibly into the central Gulf Coast states late.
Aside from questions regarding instability, this appears likely to be a strongly dynamic system with strong flow/shear covering a broad area. As such, damaging winds, and potential for tornadoes, is evident at this time. At this time, a large 15% probability area will be issued centered on a north-south zone from Missouri to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with additional areal, and risk-level, refinements to be made in subsequent outlooks.
Last Edit: Mar 8, 2019 5:14:34 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
This outbreak should be interesting. I'm going in tomorrow morning for elbow surgery and won't be able to do my usual severe weather dance, which involves me going from back patio to carport to front porch to watch different angles of bad weather .
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Temperatures are expected to fall to near freezing again tonight for areas that are generally along and north of a line from Centreville to Slidell to Pascagoula. An hour or two right at or just below freezing will be possible in some of the more rural areas.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to affect the forecast area Saturday into Sunday. A few of those storms may be strong to severe. It is too soon to say exactly which threats will be present locally or exactly where the highest threat will be and citizens are advised to continue monitoring the forecast for updates.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated through Friday.
So far the bulk of the severe weather threat remains north of our region, however latest models this morning do show a stretch of enhanced severe potential from Baton Rouge across teh north shore into south Mississippi. Gonna have to watch the trends over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Accuweather's graphic today:
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