SUMMARY...Thunderstorms potentially capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a weak tornado or two are possible this evening across the FL Panhandle. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 730pm EDT.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over the central Gulf Coast shows a quasi linear bowing segment with several small-scale circulations moving east in the near-shore waters south of Mobile Bay. The squall line will move east this evening across the northeast Gulf Coast as moisture advection/destabilization occurs ahead of the line. Surface analysis indicates dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s at the immediate coast near Tyndall AFB to the low-middle 60s near the GA/AL/FL border. Given the quality of moisture being highest near the coast, the severe and conditional tornado risk are likely going to focus near the coast this evening. Forecast soundings show a slight strengthening in the low-level wind profile during the next few hours which would be more supportive for low-level rotation.
Farther north over southeast AL, weak/transient circulations have been observed via single site 88D imagery during the past 30-45 minutes. Although there is some risk for a strong/locally severe storm with activity on the northern edge of greater buoyancy, the current expectation is the drier boundary layer/weaker buoyancy will tend to limit the overall risk across southeast AL into southwest GA this evening.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mobile AL 612 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
ALC035-039-041-053-FLC091-113-260215- /O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0022.190425T2312Z-190426T0215Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Crenshaw AL-Escambia AL-Conecuh AL-Covington AL-Okaloosa FL- Santa Rosa FL- 612 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Southern Crenshaw County in south central Alabama... Eastern Escambia County in south central Alabama... Southeastern Conecuh County in south central Alabama... Covington County in south central Alabama... Northern Okaloosa County in northwestern Florida... Northeastern Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...
* Until 915 PM CDT.
* At 610 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain over the advisory area. 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized amounts around 3 inches have recently fallen. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will result in minor flooding of urban and low lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include... Andalusia, Opp, Brewton, East Brewton, Brantley, River Falls, Red Level, Dozier, Heath, Gantt and Riverview.
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
It's important to note that the Ruston EF-3 tornado, with a damage path of a half a mile wide, was well outside the slight risk category and in the marginal risk area yesterday. Just goes to show that anytime there's ANY risk of severe weather it's important to pay attention to it.
I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL - ALL OF MY POSTS ARE BASED ON MY OPINIONS ONLY.
We also had an EF-1 over near Kiln, MS. Here are those storm reports:
1 SSW Kiln [Hancock Co, MS] EMERGENCY MNGR reports TORNADO of EF1 at 25 Apr, 11:22 AM CDT -- NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS BROKEN WITH SCATTERED TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.TORNADO BEGAN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 603 AND APACHE DR AND TRAVELED EAST-NORTHEAST LIFTING JUST BEFORE SHAWNEE ST. ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS 90 MPH. PATH LENGTH 0.4 MILES.
6 ESE Brooksville [Noxubee Co, MS] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 18 Apr, 5:29 PM CDT -- THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG BALDWYN RD, WHERE THE TIN ROOF OF A CHURCH WAS PARTIALLY REMOVED AND A LARGE TREE WAS UPROOTED. IT CONTINUED NORTHWARD PARALLELING MICKERS CLAY RD, PARTIALLY FLIPPING AN IRRIGATION PIVOT IN A FIELD WEST OF THE ROAD. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO CAUSE ROOF DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE HOMES AND TREE DAMAGE. IT LIFTED BEFORE REACHING MS HIGHWAY 388.
4 W Plum Grove [Lowndes Co, MS] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 18 Apr, 5:42 PM CDT -- THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG TRINITY RD, WHERE A FEW TREES WERE UPROOTED. IT CONTINUED TO CARSON RD, WHERE A LARGE EMPTY GRAIN BIN WAS SLID OFF OF ITS BASE AND BENT INWARD. ACROSS THE ROAD, THE ROOF OF A LARGE METAL BUILDING WAS PARTIALLY REMOVED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHWARD INTO AN OPEN FIELD, LIFTING BEFORE REACHING LINDSEY FERRY RD. PATH LENGTH OF 3.12 MILES AND MAX WIDTH OF 150 YARDS. MAX WINDS ESTIMATED OF 110 MPH.
6 E Brooksville [Noxubee Co, MS] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 18 Apr, 5:29 PM CDT -- THIS TORNADO BEGAN ALONG BALDWYN RD, WHERE THE TIN ROOF OF A CHURCH WAS PARTIALLY REMOVED AND A LARGE TREE WAS UPROOTED. IT PARTIALLY FLIPPED AN IRRIGATION PIVOT IN A FIELD AND CONTINUED TO CAUSE ROOF DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE HOMES AND TREE DAMAGE. IT LIFTED BEFORE REACHING MS HIGHWAY 388. MAX ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 MPH. PATH LENGTH OF 2.03 MILES AND MAX WIDTH OF 500 YARDS.
7 W Jena [La Salle Co, LA] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 25 Apr, 2:59 PM CDT -- AN EF-2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 7 MILES WEST OF JENA AND MOVED NORTHEAST FOR A PATH LENGTH OF 8.8 MILES WITH A MAXIMUM WIDTH OF 700 YARDS. IT UPROOTED AND SNAPPED NUMEROUS TREES ALL ALONG ITS PATH, DOWNING SEVERAL ON HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES. THE GREATEST DAMAGE WAS TO A WELL-BUILT HOME NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SEARCY EDEN ROAD AND LA 500. THE TORNADO LIFTED 6 MILES NORTH OF JENA NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF SUMMERVILLE.
Last Edit: Apr 26, 2019 17:26:51 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
1 WNW Madden [Leake Co, MS] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 25 Apr, 6:36 PM CDT -- THIS TORNADO BEGAN NORTH OF MS HIGHWAY 488, PRODUCING A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE ON RADAR, AND CONTINUED EASTWARD ACROSS THAGGARD RD. AT THIS LOCATION, THE ROOF OF A SENIOR CARE FACILITY WAS PEELED BACK, A SMALL TREE WAS SNAPPED, THE ROOF OF A SHED WAS DAMAGED, AND THE FENCE OF A BASEBALL FIELD WAS BLOWN OVER AND A SCOREBOARD DAMAGED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED EASTWARD, CROSSING MS HIGHWAY 488. MAX WINDS ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH. PATH LENGTH OF 1.35 MILES. MAX WIDTH OF 25 YARDS.