Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 6, 2019 18:20:44 GMT -6
This is looking pretty rough for parts of east Texas and west Louisiana this week! 15 INCHES are possible!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
653 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019
.AVIATION...
Dense CI streaming in fm the west this eve with some cu that will
be gone over the next hour or two. Looks like moisture will be on
the increase Tuesday with rains developing acrs the region.
Ceilings to fall in se Tx twrds sr becmg MVFR while srn LA will be
a bit later in pulling in the lwr cloud deck. Fr most of tnght
VFR flight conditions through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019/
DISCUSSION...
The generally pleasant conditions ongoing this afternoon veil the
the very unsettled weather pattern expected to unfold over the
next 5 days.
Clouds will begin to increase overnight tonight in response to a
weak upper trof and surge of moisture lifting northeast along the
Texas coastline. For such a near term forecast, guidance is in
unusually poor agreement with regards to how much precipitation
will result from this system. The GFS and Canadian keep the area
completely dry until Wednesday afternoon while the ECMWF, NAM and
several other short range models develop a large swath of
precipitation across the central Texas coastline that then spreads
northeast into the area. Opted to side with the majority and went
with the wetter solution although PoPs will not strictly reflect
the very enthusiastic nature of the ECMWF out of respect for the
drier solutions. Best timing for the onset of precipitation will
be late tomorrow evening.
The more significant feature, a weak frontal boundary, will
approach the area during the day Wednesday trailing a surface low
moving northeast out of the plains into the great lakes region.
The meridional flow aloft will allow the front to slow and then
stall over the region for several days setting up a potential
widespread flash flood event Wednesday through Sunday.
Confidence is high on the setup for flash flooding with
precipitable water values rising to at or above 2 inches late in
the week. Widespread areas of 8-10 inches of rain and local
amounts of 15+ inches are expected. However, confidence is much
lower with regards to timing and location of the highest
precipitation areas. As of this forecast, the highest rainfall
totals are expected to be across interior southeast Texas and
central Louisiana. However, this is expected to fluctuate somewhat
over the next couple of days.
In addition to the flash flood threat, a low end severe weather
threat will likely exist each day during the daytime hours
Wednesday through Sunday. SPC has part of the area highlighted in
a day 3 slight risk Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate
consistent instability with CAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/KG. Shear
will be a limiting factor reducing the tornado threat. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.
The front will finally be shunted off to the east by a couple of
upper trofs early next week, but it remains to be seen whether we
will see any significant time to dry out.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
653 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019
.AVIATION...
Dense CI streaming in fm the west this eve with some cu that will
be gone over the next hour or two. Looks like moisture will be on
the increase Tuesday with rains developing acrs the region.
Ceilings to fall in se Tx twrds sr becmg MVFR while srn LA will be
a bit later in pulling in the lwr cloud deck. Fr most of tnght
VFR flight conditions through sunrise.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019/
DISCUSSION...
The generally pleasant conditions ongoing this afternoon veil the
the very unsettled weather pattern expected to unfold over the
next 5 days.
Clouds will begin to increase overnight tonight in response to a
weak upper trof and surge of moisture lifting northeast along the
Texas coastline. For such a near term forecast, guidance is in
unusually poor agreement with regards to how much precipitation
will result from this system. The GFS and Canadian keep the area
completely dry until Wednesday afternoon while the ECMWF, NAM and
several other short range models develop a large swath of
precipitation across the central Texas coastline that then spreads
northeast into the area. Opted to side with the majority and went
with the wetter solution although PoPs will not strictly reflect
the very enthusiastic nature of the ECMWF out of respect for the
drier solutions. Best timing for the onset of precipitation will
be late tomorrow evening.
The more significant feature, a weak frontal boundary, will
approach the area during the day Wednesday trailing a surface low
moving northeast out of the plains into the great lakes region.
The meridional flow aloft will allow the front to slow and then
stall over the region for several days setting up a potential
widespread flash flood event Wednesday through Sunday.
Confidence is high on the setup for flash flooding with
precipitable water values rising to at or above 2 inches late in
the week. Widespread areas of 8-10 inches of rain and local
amounts of 15+ inches are expected. However, confidence is much
lower with regards to timing and location of the highest
precipitation areas. As of this forecast, the highest rainfall
totals are expected to be across interior southeast Texas and
central Louisiana. However, this is expected to fluctuate somewhat
over the next couple of days.
In addition to the flash flood threat, a low end severe weather
threat will likely exist each day during the daytime hours
Wednesday through Sunday. SPC has part of the area highlighted in
a day 3 slight risk Wednesday. Forecast soundings indicate
consistent instability with CAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/KG. Shear
will be a limiting factor reducing the tornado threat. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary hazards.
The front will finally be shunted off to the east by a couple of
upper trofs early next week, but it remains to be seen whether we
will see any significant time to dry out.
