HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Wyatt Erminger
Meteorologist

Posts: 1,047

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:38:01 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, dutt928, and 4 more like this

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Post by Wyatt Erminger on Jul 9, 2019 12:38:01 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 12:21:49 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Thanks NDG. Wyatt, where ya at?

I'm here, just observing. I'm more in line with waiting to see what we have when the center consolidates.

Needless to say going to be interesting, now that the 'windshield wiper' effect of the models between hot/cold charts has started to settle down they're locking in on the LA coastline. Now the real point of contention is intensity and forward speed.

Last Edit: Jul 9, 2019 12:39:01 GMT -6 by Wyatt Erminger

thibodauxwx
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:38:57 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ and allicat1214 like this

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Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 12:38:57 GMT -6

Terrebonne Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness
2 hrs ·
From the Terrebonne Levee and Conservation District:

The TLCD is preparing for the storm system expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico. The Upper Little Caillou and Placid Canal gates will be closed today. Humble Canal, Bush Canal, Pointe-aux-Chenes, and Dularge gates will be monitored and likely close tomorrow. The rest of the gates may close Thursday including HNC, Cocodrie, and Falgout Canal.

For more information go to the TLCD website: www.tlcd.org

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:41:56 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:41:56 GMT -6 Good to hear from you Wyatt.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:43:32 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:43:32 GMT -6 As usual a few degrees in trajectory is the story of have and have nots.

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6 What are the odds at this point of this thing being a "bust"; "bust" meaning it really never develops into anything of any significance and just kinda meanders as a blob in the Gulf?
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

frankp
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -6 ndg and Dutar76 like this

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Post by frankp on Jul 9, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6 nolasim said:

What are the odds at this point of this thing being a "bust"; "bust" meaning it really never develops into anything of any significance and just kinda meanders as a blob in the Gulf?

Probably less than 20% since the NHC has an 80% chance of development.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:53:50 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:53:50 GMT -6 Always a possibility. Skill still low with intensity forecast. Not likely regarding this particular system.

Blaine Tropical Low Posts: 19	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:54:12 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Blaine on Jul 9, 2019 12:54:12 GMT -6 I would say the opposite of the NHC given development chances?

teemickey
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:55:07 GMT -6

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Post by teemickey on Jul 9, 2019 12:55:07 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6 nolasim said:

What are the odds at this point of this thing being a "bust"; "bust" meaning it really never develops into anything of any significance and just kinda meanders as a blob in the Gulf?

I am wondering the same thing my friend!

I'm a wife, mom of 2 and Grammie of 6!

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,515	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:56:54 GMT -6 via mobile ndg, flora... Covington, near CHS, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jul 9, 2019 12:56:54 GMT -6
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nolasim
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 12:59:02 GMT -6 flora... Covington, near CHS likes this

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Post by nolasim on Jul 9, 2019 12:59:02 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -6 frankp said:

Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6 nolasim said:

What are the odds at this point of this thing being a "bust"; "bust" meaning it really never develops into anything of any significance and just kinda meanders as a blob in the Gulf?

Probably less than 20% since the NHC has an 80% chance of development.

Well I asked a question and got an answer!

More specifically............."development" can be a broad term. It can "develop" into a tropical depression therefore fulfilling the 80% predication and then fizzle out. I guess that was the gist of my question.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

grisairgasm
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Posts: 5,866

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 13:07:10 GMT -6

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Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 13:07:10 GMT -6

Remember that rainfall is generally not part of the actual intensity or development process. Yet it often is the main factor regardless and becomes the ultimate destructive force. That appears to be a given here for somewhere.

frankp
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 13:07:20 GMT -6

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Post by frankp on Jul 9, 2019 13:07:20 GMT -6

Jul 9, 2019 12:59:02 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jul 9, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -6 frankp said:

Probably less than 20% since the NHC has an 80% chance of development.

Well I asked a question and got an answer!

More specifically............."development" can be a broad term. It can "develop" into a tropical depression therefore fulfilling the 80% predication and then fizzle out. I guess that was the gist of my question.

Well a TD is not necessarily a bust, especially if it dumps a ton of rain water in LA... like what happened just a few years ago. I would say the probably of this just fizzling out is pretty remote at the best, less than 2%... it gonna rain and rain hard regardless.... nothing in the cards to stop that from happening from what I can see... my humble opinion..

HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 6,258 Location: Gallatin, TN - 20 miles NE of Nashville Staff Member	HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 13:12:30 GMT -6 stormy911 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Jul 9, 2019 13:12:30 GMT -6 12z EURO rainfall totals, through Monday evening.
	GCWX Director of Public Relations Weather Underground www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLACOVIN110

grisairgasm
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HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS) Jul 9, 2019 13:13:34 GMT -6

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Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 13:13:34 GMT -6

There is almost always a looser regardless as surge, wind, and rain affect the gulf states. Louisiana is particularly prone to all forms of destruction. As history teaches us, especially recently, some people are about to have their lives changed....maybe again. Would love to be wrong.

HURRICANE BARRY - Discussion Thread - (REMNANTS)

Post by Wyatt Erminger on Jul 9, 2019 12:38:01 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Jul 9, 2019 12:38:57 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:41:56 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:43:32 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 9, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Jul 9, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 12:53:50 GMT -6

Post by Blaine on Jul 9, 2019 12:54:12 GMT -6

Post by teemickey on Jul 9, 2019 12:55:07 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jul 9, 2019 12:56:54 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 9, 2019 12:59:02 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 13:07:10 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Jul 9, 2019 13:07:20 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Jul 9, 2019 13:12:30 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 9, 2019 13:13:34 GMT -6

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