Hurricane Dorian Discussion Thread

Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 26

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019

500 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019



...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...25.0N 70.7W

ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


Dorian is now moving slow only 9mph and WNW.

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building

to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a

more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge is

forecast to build even more and steer Dorian on a westward track for

the next 3 to 4 days. However, the steering currents will then

weaken, and this should result in a decrease in the hurricane's

forward speed. Given the collapse of the steering currents, the

track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly

uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the

core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep

it near the coast, or offshore. The models have not been very

consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward

turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could

occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given

this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little

to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for

additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future

model trends.

To say the least, The Weather Channel is not what it used to be

I hate to be a nervous Nelly, but I remember the Friday night before Katrina we thought the storm was going to Alabama. Then we woke up Saturday into Sunday and saw a different scenario. What’s the chances that could happen again? Just trying to make sure I know all the information.

Looks like Patrick AFB is in direct path of the Cat 4.  Smashed again ... :shock: (unless something changes)

The strength of the ridge must be a real enigma.