Post by grisairgasm on Apr 19, 2020 20:08:02 GMT -6
I hear you. The #1 reason we stay is we are fortunate to live in a rare N’awlins non flood zone. Medical jobs also required us here. I simply got tired of the fear and stress every season. I hope people can make some use of our discussion above. A little thought, effort, and money has been a game changer. Electricity, air conditioning , and water is all you really need. I know it’s quite an expense for a lot of people. However, when you add up all the real expenses of evacuations over the years it makes sense. But anyone considering these ideas has to absolutely understand their particular risk assessment.
Post by grisairgasm on Apr 19, 2020 20:10:43 GMT -6
I hear you. The #1 reason we stay is we are fortunate to live in a rare N’awlins non flood zone. Medical jobs also required us here. I simply got tired of the fear and stress every season. I hope people can make some use of our discussion above. A little thought, effort, and money has been a game changer. Electricity, air conditioning , and water is all you really need. I know it’s quite an expense for a lot of people. However, when you add up all the real expenses of evacuations over the years it makes sense. But anyone considering these ideas has to absolutely understand their particular risk assessment.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Apr 20, 2020 7:20:42 GMT -6
RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – The Atlantic basin could see up to 22 named storms this upcoming hurricane season, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.
According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, this hurricane season will see 18 to 22 named storms, which is above both long- and short-term averages.
The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
According to researchers, the long-term (1951 to 2019) average of named storms is 11, and the short-term (1995 to 2019) average is 14.
Of this season’s named storms, eight to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes, according to N.C. State researchers.
Xie said the Gulf of Mexico could see an extremely active hurricane season with “the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes.”
According to researchers, historic averages for the Gulf are just three named storms and one hurricane.
“Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin,” the release from the university said.
Xia Sun, graduate research assistant in marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, also contributed to the research.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
I don’t know how reliable this university is in their predictions but to see a prediction of 22 named storms with such an active Gulf of Mexico prediction is eye-opening. 6-10 GOM storms would break this site’s servers!!
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Apr 22, 2020 10:19:43 GMT -6
That wet pattern screams tropical activity. I wonder how the overall upper level winds will be. If those are favorable and are in place, look out. I really think this year will be a busy/fun one to watch.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 4, 2020 10:13:54 GMT -6
Another forecast for a potentially record-setting season in terms of number of named storms. I'm so ready to track this season and I wonder if we'll have another bout of pre-season action in the Gulf.
Another forecast for a potentially record-setting season in terms of number of named storms. I'm so ready to track this season and I wonder if we'll have another bout of pre-season action in the Gulf.
Post by grisairgasm on May 4, 2020 14:42:33 GMT -6
12Z GFS has a weak low off the East Florida Coast around Saturday 5/16. Remains weak and may not be completely warm core tropical. I don’t know if your Facebook source is looking at that or something else. It is also time for the Central American gyre to begin and I think the MJO is supposed to show up around here in about 2 weeks. Just the normal indications of what is about to begin. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong.
12Z GFS has a weak low off the East Florida Coast around Saturday 5/16. Remains weak and may not be completely warm core tropical. I don’t know if your Facebook source is looking at that or something else. It is also time for the Central American gyre to begin and I think the MJO is supposed to show up around here in about 2 weeks. Just the normal indications of what is about to begin. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong.
He didn't mention any specifics- just that we may see the tropics stirring in 2-3 weeks, and reminded us about the neutral ENSO conditions/Warm SSTs in place.
I'm not wishing destruction or harm to anyone, but I'm ready to start tracking!
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
Post by grisairgasm on May 4, 2020 19:04:43 GMT -6
No need to downplay the natural human curiosity! Like it or not, hurricanes cause adrenaline release in all of us. They are absolutely fascinating and scary at the same time. I'm still amazed by Dorian and Michael. I will make this statement that I do every year this time. A MAJOR hurricane going over any one spot is actually very rare. As an example, New Orleans proper has not had the eye of a Cat 3 or greater pass over the city since 1915. Betsy and Katrina did not. However, you obviously don't need an eye to wreck lives. More proof that a "center" can have very little ramifications in the big picture. Anyway, happy tracking!
Post by grisairgasm on May 5, 2020 14:06:08 GMT -6
A named storm in the Gulf or off the East Coast in mid May would be quite unusual. Models could be real entertaining the next few days. I just never say never anymore when it comes to the weather these days lol!