2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – The Atlantic basin could see up to 22 named storms this upcoming hurricane season, according to researchers at North Carolina State University.

According to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at N.C. State, this hurricane season will see 18 to 22 named storms, which is above both long- and short-term averages.

The Atlantic basin includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

According to researchers, the long-term (1951 to 2019) average of named storms is 11, and the short-term (1995 to 2019) average is 14.

Of this season’s named storms, eight to 11 may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the historical average is six), with the possibility of three to five storms becoming major hurricanes, according to N.C. State researchers.

Xie said the Gulf of Mexico could see an extremely active hurricane season with “the likelihood of six to 10 named storms forming in the region, with two to five of them becoming hurricanes, and one to two becoming major hurricanes.”

According to researchers, historic averages for the Gulf are just three named storms and one hurricane.

“Xie’s methodology evaluates more than 100 years of historical data on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables, including weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures, to predict how many storms will form in each ocean basin,” the release from the university said.

Xia Sun, graduate research assistant in marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State, also contributed to the research.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.