Just looking at tomorrow, the SPC has highlighted much of west Louisiana as a Slight Risk.
...Southern TX...LA and southwest MS...
Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning from southeast OK into adjacent portions of AR/TX in the vicinity of a cold front. This convection will likely be elevated and to the cool side of the surface boundary. Ahead of the front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will reside across much of central/southern TX into LA. Southwesterly low level flow will transport Gulf moisture eastward through the afternoon into southern MS just prior to frontal passage. Most guidance suggests that convection should intensify or redevelop along the front from northern/central LA southwestward into east TX during the late morning/early afternoon. Strong heating and midlevel lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km will result in moderate MLCAPE and surface-based convection. Steep lapse rates should support some large hail, through this will be dependent on storm mode remaining somewhat discrete. Strong forcing along the front and deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary will likely result in storms quickly taking on a linear mode, increasing the potential for damaging wind gusts.
There is some uncertainty with regards to the north and eastward extent of the severe threat. Morning frontal position and ongoing convection will play a role in this, as will eastward extent of higher surface dewpoints ahead of the front. The cold front should move offshore from the upper TX/LA/MS coasts around 00-03z.
Further to the west/southwest, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across south TX with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s expected. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates emanating from the Mexican Plateau will reside over the region, with values between 8-9 C/km possible. Strong afternoon heating into the mid 80s to low 90s F will result in strong instability and steep low-level lapse rates. While forcing and deep layer flow will be weaker across this area, at least a conditional threat for a severe storm or two will exist. If storm develop, large hail and strong downburst winds would be possible.
Post by grisairgasm on May 8, 2020 11:06:47 GMT -6
Impressive line heading this way. I’m hoping for a good burst of rain but who knows as recent history has almost everything weakening as it approaches the Southshore. Regardless of rain, I do expect some gusty winds even if it is just a leftover outflow boundary. Should feel great when it passes but we don’t need 50mph winds. We’ll see shortly.
ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION ASSUMPTION BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY TERREBONNE VERMILION WEST BATON ROUGE
We're getting a good soaking here in my little corner of Brusly. Solid rain, and I've heard a couple of rumbles of thunder.
It got dark too!!
We were talking about how it felt like time to start winding down for bed! R asked Brian if he could have a snack. Brian started to say, no, it's time for bed. Then he realized it actually wasn't, it was just dark. LOL