HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 29, 2020 21:27:58 GMT -6 grisairgasm, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Jul 29, 2020 21:27:58 GMT -6 11pm Video Update on Isaias

hurricaner
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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 29, 2020 21:58:57 GMT -6 grisairgasm and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this

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Post by hurricaner on Jul 29, 2020 21:58:57 GMT -6

My only problem with the models are they are intializing the storm too far north and looking at the 00Z GFS by 1am to night it still does not have a organized system. because of this between 6hr and 12hr positions the system jumps NNW to north of Hispanola (it goes from 16.5N 67.5W at 6hrs to 19.3N 68.2W at 12hrs). If it does not do this the whole 00z run is bad.

Last Edit: Jul 29, 2020 22:02:43 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 29, 2020 22:12:25 GMT -6 VERticalnoGO likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 29, 2020 22:12:25 GMT -6 Very legitimate point. And 2020 rolls on....

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 29, 2020 22:31:15 GMT -6 harpman - old, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jul 29, 2020 22:31:15 GMT -6 I do believe our biggest challenge with this storm is pronouncing it.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 29, 2020 22:52:59 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Jul 29, 2020 22:52:59 GMT -6 Got that right! Goodnight. It is good.

VERticalnoGO
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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 0:47:50 GMT -6 via mobile PinkFreud - Nola FQ and ju like this

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Post by VERticalnoGO on Jul 30, 2020 0:47:50 GMT -6

Jul 29, 2020 21:07:36 GMT -6 gullywasher said:

Jul 29, 2020 19:28:28 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

Subject to change but as of 18z the GFS Ensembles thinks it's going east.

looks like VIPRE forecast foe Katrina

Reminds me of my late grandmother when she, along with me, my parents and dog, were told we had to evacuate the Hilton after Katrina passed. We prayed we could make it to TN with no gas, no bathrooms, and no food on hand or in sight.
As my grandmother put it, “Bob Breck can take that VIPER and shove it up his a - - !”
She was 84 at the time and got 10ft of water in her tiny 600 sq ft apt in Lake Terrace. Like most, she lost EVERYTHING. So blessed that she lived to see another ten beautiful years.

"The Hilton was a HOT commodity"

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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 3:28:42 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jul 30, 2020 3:28:42 GMT -6

Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

Last Edit: Jul 30, 2020 3:29:16 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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chloe06 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,254	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 3:53:16 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by chloe06 on Jul 30, 2020 3:53:16 GMT -6 Since Isiais is already taking that NW turn, can we safely say now the Gulf Coast is not getting this storm?

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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 6:16:06 GMT -6 chloe06 likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 6:16:06 GMT -6

Jul 30, 2020 3:53:16 GMT -6 chloe06 said:

Since Isiais is already taking that NW turn, can we safely say now the Gulf Coast is not getting this storm?

Personally, I'm fairly confident now it will not get into the Gulf, and even if it did, as long as this trough stays in play, it would turn well before Louisiana. So far models have been fairly consistent showing this trough. The Canadian is the only model I've seen this morning that still shows Gulf entry.

Canadian:

Trough position for Saturday:

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Wyatt Erminger
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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 7:20:47 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish and allicat1214 like this

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Post by Wyatt Erminger on Jul 30, 2020 7:20:47 GMT -6

Definitely feeling more confident this morning of the trough picking him up, the gain in latitude is a huge help. I think it's more so a game of chicken with the east coast now.

Last Edit: Jul 30, 2020 7:21:08 GMT -6 by Wyatt Erminger

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 7:46:38 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Jul 30, 2020 7:46:38 GMT -6 Am I seeing it right that the Euro is still losing it as it reaches the Florida Straits?

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 7:52:56 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2020 7:52:56 GMT -6 Anyone surprised that it is at 60 mph as of the 7:00 adviso? I didn't think it would get close to that before reaching the land masses in the Caribbean.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 8:02:31 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 8:02:31 GMT -6 Jul 30, 2020 7:46:38 GMT -6 jimmycarl said: Am I seeing it right that the Euro is still losing it as it reaches the Florida Straits? It's there, just not quite as deep of a storm. 1
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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 8:03:43 GMT -6 Dutar76 likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 8:03:43 GMT -6

Jul 30, 2020 7:52:56 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Anyone surprised that it is at 60 mph as of the 7:00 adviso? I didn't think it would get close to that before reaching the land masses in the Caribbean.

Nice blow up of convection this morning. I'm anxious to see just how much the D.R. tears him apart. If he can maintain this over the next few hours, it may not be all that much.

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thermalwind - Touro
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HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread Jul 30, 2020 10:24:44 GMT -6 via mobile Dutar76 likes this

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on Jul 30, 2020 10:24:44 GMT -6

I actually think Hispaniola ends up helping the storm organize. Overall circulation is big enough the strongest east winds over the north stay over water and gets a little convergence help from friction with the mountains. Plus it should kill that pesky south side of the system that has kept it oblong this entire time.

I suspect we get a center reform north of Hispaniola and increased organization and strength for the trouble. Of course, there's count to be plenty of shear to deal with in the near term so the higher end possibilities are still low.

HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread

Post by Mike Naso on Jul 29, 2020 21:27:58 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 29, 2020 21:58:57 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 29, 2020 22:12:25 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 29, 2020 22:31:15 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Jul 29, 2020 22:52:59 GMT -6

Post by VERticalnoGO on Jul 30, 2020 0:47:50 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jul 30, 2020 3:28:42 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Jul 30, 2020 3:53:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 6:16:06 GMT -6

Post by Wyatt Erminger on Jul 30, 2020 7:20:47 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Jul 30, 2020 7:46:38 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jul 30, 2020 7:52:56 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 8:02:31 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 30, 2020 8:03:43 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Jul 30, 2020 10:24:44 GMT -6

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