HURRICANE ISAIAS Discussion Thread

Attachment DeletedWhats up with this? Looks like they are finding center way south and west of last advisory. Or am i imagining that?

NHC....best in the world. But intensity skills are still poor and bordering on wacky so far. This thing is large (yes, slower formation at times), it is controlling some of it’s environment, it has structure and good bones at least, the water fuel is vast ahead of it and E Cuba will be the last possible land interaction if at all. Of course I hear “shear”, dry air, yada yada. It is maintaining up to 60 mph per some reports from Hispaniola. Mr I is also skirting the flatter side of the island and looking decent imo. I just think forecasting a TS and nothing more right now is a bit conservative. Man they are good though. I’ll be thrilled if it stays a TS. And hopefully a lesson learned. Looks like it is beginning to clear the coast in a bit. Essentially it’s now August. If I lived in Florida or the OBX Carolina I would be absolutely preparing for at least a low end cane. Just too close of an approach and frankly something doesn’t seem to be in sync with intensity this year. Gonzalo did behave but this is a year like no other.

Yea the NHC already has changed their forecast to show it being a H still se of FL.

Quite possible. Right now, Isaias has good low-level convergence and good upper-level divergence. 

Aaah. Should have checked latest. TX. My comments still stand though about the intensity ideas.