TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread)

SKYSUMMIT
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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 12:58:28 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 20, 2020 12:58:28 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 12:56:27 GMT -6 trethe said:

It appears that the TVCN (Consensus Model) that the NHC usually follows closely has shifted to the western side of Terrebonne Parish.

Yeah, that's over 100 miles east of the current NHC official forecast. Before we know it, 14 will be going to Florida and 13 will be going to Mexico lol

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Post by optimist on Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6

Sorry but between the off topic posts and these two storms, I am getting a tad bit confused. Can someone explain where we are at this point? The Euro shows TD 14 develop but not TD 13? GFS shows both developing but TD 14 weaker and more towards Texas while TD 13 skirts the ridge and goes to the panhandle? Is this correct? Thanks in advance - sorry for the confusion.

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:00:35 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Aug 20, 2020 13:00:35 GMT -6 I would anticipate a shift to the east in the official NHC track at 4:00PM. Perhaps not so extreme of shift due to the NHC liking "consistency".

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:03:49 GMT -6 via mobile gullywasher, grisairgasm, and 1 more like this

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Aug 20, 2020 13:03:49 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6 optimist said:

Sorry but between the off topic posts and these two storms, I am getting a tad bit confused. Can someone explain where we are at this point? The Euro shows TD 14 develop but not TD 13? GFS shows both developing but TD 14 weaker and more towards Texas while TD 13 skirts the ridge and goes to the panhandle? Is this correct? Thanks in advance - sorry for the confusion.

We might need to combine both storm threads into a single thread since what one does will impact the other.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:03:55 GMT -6 grisairgasm, ju, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 20, 2020 13:03:55 GMT -6 It's really simply a matter of when, not if, the official track takes it into Louisiana at this point. My source: my gut feeling LOL

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:04:15 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 20, 2020 13:04:15 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6 optimist said:

Sorry but between the off topic posts and these two storms, I am getting a tad bit confused. Can someone explain where we are at this point? The Euro shows TD 14 develop but not TD 13? GFS shows both developing but TD 14 weaker and more towards Texas while TD 13 skirts the ridge and goes to the panhandle? Is this correct? Thanks in advance - sorry for the confusion.

I personally think it's the close proximity of these two storms. The chance to have two very well organized storms THAT close together is slim to none. One's outflow should greatly inhibit the other's. Maybe it's that which is giving them fits.

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:04:42 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 20, 2020 13:04:42 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6 optimist said:

Sorry but between the off topic posts and these two storms, I am getting a tad bit confused. Can someone explain where we are at this point? The Euro shows TD 14 develop but not TD 13? GFS shows both developing but TD 14 weaker and more towards Texas while TD 13 skirts the ridge and goes to the panhandle? Is this correct? Thanks in advance - sorry for the confusion.

Very very complicated at this point. Many variables to come. In my mind Saturday should give us a clearer picture. Wish I /we knew more. Only takeaway right now is two systems in the Gulf likely.

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:05:17 GMT -6 grisairgasm likes this

Post by gulfbreeze on Aug 20, 2020 13:05:17 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 13:03:55 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

It's really simply a matter of when, not if, the official track takes it into Louisiana at this point. My source: my gut feeling LOL

My gut feeling as well, Will. Hopefully, we are wrong.

Not a professional forecast by any means and should not be viewed as such - just my opinion. Audrey'57, Carla'61 Hilda'64, Betsy'65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Gustav'08, Ike'08, No-Name'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:05:47 GMT -6 grisairgasm, Stacie-Lumberton, MS, and 2 more like this

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 20, 2020 13:05:47 GMT -6

And then on Saturday we will be saying "we'll have a better picture tomorrow" then "by Monday we'll know where this thing is going".

If either one of them come here, I'm gonna do what they do in China (as my dad would say): let it rain.

Last Edit: Aug 20, 2020 13:07:18 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:07:24 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 20, 2020 13:07:24 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 13:04:15 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Aug 20, 2020 12:59:16 GMT -6 optimist said:

Sorry but between the off topic posts and these two storms, I am getting a tad bit confused. Can someone explain where we are at this point? The Euro shows TD 14 develop but not TD 13? GFS shows both developing but TD 14 weaker and more towards Texas while TD 13 skirts the ridge and goes to the panhandle? Is this correct? Thanks in advance - sorry for the confusion.

I personally think it's the close proximity of these two storms. The chance to have two very well organized storms THAT close together is slim to none. One's outflow should greatly inhibit the other's. Maybe it's that which is giving them fits.

Perfectly stated. I’m solid in your corner. And let’s have lots of upwelling to finish out August in our Gulf.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:09:13 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 20, 2020 13:09:13 GMT -6 Recon finding a small area of 30kt winds just northeast of the center.
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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:09:26 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Aug 20, 2020 13:09:26 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 13:05:47 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

And then on Saturday we will be saying "we'll have a better picture tomorrow" then "by Monday we'll know where this thing is going".

If either one of them come here, I'm gonna do what they do in China (as my dad would say): let it rain.

Probably lol! You go 2020 as the freak shows and uncertainty continue.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:11:53 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, gullywasher, and 3 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Aug 20, 2020 13:11:53 GMT -6 LMAO! After 3 minutes I can’t even tell what thread I’m in. Perhaps some body start an interaction thread. I think thermal alluded to that.

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:13:52 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by cajungal on Aug 20, 2020 13:13:52 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 12:56:27 GMT -6 trethe said:

It appears that the TVCN (Consensus Model) that the NHC usually follows closely has shifted to the western side of Terrebonne Parish.

This may shift as Far East as MS before it is all said and done

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

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TROPICAL STORM MARCO (continued in the Laura thread) Aug 20, 2020 13:16:58 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, greeneyedgirl, and 2 more like this

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Aug 20, 2020 13:16:58 GMT -6

Aug 20, 2020 13:11:53 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

LMAO! After 3 minutes I can’t even tell what thread I’m in. Perhaps some body start an interaction thread. I think thermal alluded to that.

I have 2 tabs open: one for TD13 and the other for TD14. I just refresh both as needed.

One combined thread would be helpful, but could get confusing too, with all the different model posts, etc.

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