HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread

heatherweather
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:26:56 GMT -6 PinkFreud - Nola FQ, Will - Ascension Parish, and 1 more like this

Post by heatherweather on Sept 14, 2020 14:26:56 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 13:49:14 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Sept 14, 2020 13:44:02 GMT -6 heatherweather said:

Well, the Catholic schools in Baton Rouge have now canceled tomorrow's school cancellations, if that makes sense. My kids will be devastated. Living here, my kids will never know the excitement of school being cancelled for snow or ice storms. I vividly remember staying up all night, listening to my radio (no cell phones back then!), waiting for the radio station to announce school closures. And they often did it the morning of, so it was always an adrenaline rush, waiting for the last minute word. The closest to that here are closures for hurricanes.

Baton Rouge is overdue for some action. I'd settle for a decent tropical storm or a significant cold front with a day's worth of severe thunderstorms. But for now . . . :zzz:

Heather, how long have you lived in Baton Rouge? Since 2014, we have had a lifetime's worth of ice storms, cold, and snow events in Baton Rouge. Not many by most standards but by our standards, a lifetime's worth. I believe we had 2 major ice storms in 2014, a MAJOR snow event in 2017, and record-breaking cold in 2018. Before 2014, I can remember 2 snow events and only a hand full of cold outbreaks.

Either way, don't worry about not having hurricanes in the Baton Rouge area. It does appear that we've been shielded by major tropical events lately but our luck will run out one of these days. SELA is due for a big tropical event. Obviously time for that this year is running out but there's next year. Gustav in 2008 completely shredded Baton Rouge with 100mph winds. It happens here, just not often.

I lived here from 1991-1999 and then returned 2007-present. I grew up in the DC area 1st-8th and upstate NY 8th-12th grade. 1999-2006 lived in Baltimore, Boston, Worcester and Mt. Snow, VT. So, you're absolutely correct. I should have added the caveat that what I consider a memorable winter event is different from those who have spent most of their lives in the South. (I also have a terrible memory.) I've been here the last 13 years and I still haven't adjusted to the heat, no tolerance at all! Cold weather is my jam.
:snowing:

Total severe weather nerd, starting with Hurricane Andrew! Follow me on Instagram @themagicalredhead. Please note that any excitement or disappointment displayed regarding severe weather events is strictly about experiencing the event itself from a meteorological standpoint (not the potential negative impacts to life and property).

Will - Ascension Parish
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:29:06 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish and heatherweather like this

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:29:06 GMT -6

Interesting! What's your connection to Baton Rouge - family?

I grew up here but I'll take the cold (our version of the cold - 20s-30s) all day over the heat & humidity.

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:29:55 GMT -6 nolasim, optimist, and 3 more like this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2020 14:29:55 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 14:22:12 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Alright, alright, I know I have said I won't doubt the NHC anymore BUT...

Looking at the steering currents posted above, I only see Sally being pushed westward. To my UNTRAINED eye, it appears the high over the Midwest won't be moving southeast to whip Sally northward around its periphery. It only appears to be moving almost eastward instead of southeastward. I know I'm an amateur and please don't take this post as me sounding any alarm whatsoever, I just don't see what the experts see (and that's okay). Is there something forecast to push that high over the Midwest southeastward soon?

Her current steering set up is here, which matches the GFS at zero hour. If you pull up the GFS at hour 36, there is a very slight weakness in this steering that allows Sally to turn north and then northeast. It's there but it's very slight. Nothing is actually going to "pull" Sally north. This is just about all her....but man that's a tight line to follow!

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trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:31:15 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 14, 2020 14:31:15 GMT -6 I would think that she should open her eye soon.

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,514 Location: West Side Of The MS Coast	HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6 I didn't understand it to be the ridge to the west building in that will push sally north but the ridge to the east weakening and pulling back that will aloow to turn north. I may have that totally wrong.

missy
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:33:03 GMT -6 nolasim, roorufus, and 2 more like this

Post by missy on Sept 14, 2020 14:33:03 GMT -6

Bruce Katz just said we are still not out of the woods. It still needs to turn. MS/AL landfall projections are just that: projections. Everyone needs to stay vigilant and not totally write Sally off just yet.

heatherweather
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:33:28 GMT -6 lightningfan, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

Post by heatherweather on Sept 14, 2020 14:33:28 GMT -6

I've been dying to do some storm chasing. . . but I'm waiting until my kids are a little older. I would never bring them along - and I'm divorced so I can't rush off at a moment's notice and leave them for several days at a time. . . . yet.

)

Sept 14, 2020 13:52:55 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Sept 14, 2020 13:49:14 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

You could always take a road trip. It isn’t like MS/Al is that far. But I would not recommend doing that with children especially near the coast because of the surge. Sometimes I dreamed of having Jim Cantore’s job

Total severe weather nerd, starting with Hurricane Andrew! Follow me on Instagram @themagicalredhead. Please note that any excitement or disappointment displayed regarding severe weather events is strictly about experiencing the event itself from a meteorological standpoint (not the potential negative impacts to life and property).

Will - Ascension Parish
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:35:05 GMT -6 missmissy, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:35:05 GMT -6

Thank you for that explanation! So basically SELA is counting on a very slight weakness in that ridge to allow it to meander northward? Looking at that map, the ridge just seems way too strong and large to allow for a weakness but again, I'm not the professional here so I'm not always 100% certain of what I'm looking at.

Last Edit: Sept 14, 2020 14:37:05 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

nolasim
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -6 trueblue, harpman - old, and 1 more like this

Post by nolasim on Sept 14, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

I didn't understand it to be the ridge to the west building in that will push sally north but the ridge to the east weakening and pulling back that will aloow to turn north. I may have that totally wrong.

Chris Franklin was just on WWL-TV with a very detailed forecast; he said there is a ULL over near Texas that is going to actually push Sally north. He said the fact that the storm has increased in intensity means the storm is more stacked or "taller", allowing the ULL to "push" it and make it go north.

That was his explanation, although he was much more detailed.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

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grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:36:19 GMT -6 harpman - old, Jess23, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Sept 14, 2020 14:36:19 GMT -6 Interesting NHC update in a minute. I think watches and warnings are about to shift E.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,283	HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:38:34 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:38:34 GMT -6 They should've been shifted eastward to the panhandle last night if you ask me!

cloudydreamsunreal
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:38:51 GMT -6 via mobile optimist likes this

Post by cloudydreamsunreal on Sept 14, 2020 14:38:51 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

I didn't understand it to be the ridge to the west building in that will push sally north but the ridge to the east weakening and pulling back that will aloow to turn north. I may have that totally wrong.

Chris Franklin was just on WWL-TV with a very detailed forecast; he said there is a ULL over near Texas that is going to actually push Sally north. He said the fact that the storm has increased in intensity means the storm is more stacked or "taller", allowing the ULL to "push" it and make it go north.

That was his explanation, although he was much more detailed.

Levib said the same thing in his update yesterday.

dirkd
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:41:04 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by dirkd on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:04 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 14:24:39 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Sept 14, 2020 14:08:08 GMT -6 dirkd said:

What’s the best radar link to Sally at this point?

Also, where is the donation link for the forum?

I've been watching the Mobile radar.

On home page of the forum, right hand column toward the top.

Got it. You need to use the desktop version to donate.

optimist
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HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:41:42 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:42 GMT -6

Sept 14, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

I didn't understand it to be the ridge to the west building in that will push sally north but the ridge to the east weakening and pulling back that will aloow to turn north. I may have that totally wrong.

Chris Franklin was just on WWL-TV with a very detailed forecast; he said there is a ULL over near Texas that is going to actually push Sally north. He said the fact that the storm has increased in intensity means the storm is more stacked or "taller", allowing the ULL to "push" it and make it go north.

That was his explanation, although he was much more detailed.

This is what Levi's video said yesterday. However, when he was explaining the storm was much further to the west then what the 18z earlies are showing.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread Sept 14, 2020 14:41:59 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:59 GMT -6 NOAA has said in the past that hurricane winds are up by 30% above 70ft. The Superdome roof after the K storm reminds me of that.

HURRICANE SALLY Discussion Thread

Post by heatherweather on Sept 14, 2020 14:26:56 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:29:06 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 14, 2020 14:29:55 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 14, 2020 14:31:15 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Sept 14, 2020 14:32:29 GMT -6

Post by missy on Sept 14, 2020 14:33:03 GMT -6

Post by heatherweather on Sept 14, 2020 14:33:28 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:35:05 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 14, 2020 14:35:51 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 14, 2020 14:36:19 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 14, 2020 14:38:34 GMT -6

Post by cloudydreamsunreal on Sept 14, 2020 14:38:51 GMT -6

Post by dirkd on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:04 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:42 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 14, 2020 14:41:59 GMT -6

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