HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

nolachic
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:01:01 GMT -6 redrover, whitecap, and 6 more like this

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Post by nolachic on Oct 5, 2020 16:01:01 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 15:51:55 GMT -6 gullywasher said:

So, if we're going to be at this for a few days I need to make a run for more gin. Anybody need anything ?

Penot Noir - preferably Josh or maybe LeCrema
Pop Tarts - strawberry or cherry. Must be frosted.
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Pepto
Haldol
Immodium
TP

Thou shall not utter her name

M. Geissler Category 1 Posts: 282	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:02:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by M. Geissler on Oct 5, 2020 16:02:12 GMT -6 Latest GFS look damn near close to the current NHC, maybe a tad west but not that dramatic.
	M. Geissler Live Weather Station: Slidell, LA - www.weatherlink.com/embeddablePage/show/5c08f3290b5e4551a008da8e5177f0eb/wide My CWOP Page - aprs.fi/weather/a/GW5218

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:03:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:01 GMT -6 960 mb cat 3 gfs 18z
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:03:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:12 GMT -6 Close to 960mb again at landfall, moving NNE here:
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missy
Category 1

GO LSU TIGERS!

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:03:19 GMT -6

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Post by missy on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:19 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 15:59:21 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Oct 5, 2020 15:54:16 GMT -6 missy said:

Bruce Katz weakens it to Cat 2. 100 mph winds at landfall.

Well, that's not "his" forecast. That's the official forecast. Not yet sure why the NHC is weakening it so fast in the central Gulf. I can see it weakening just prior to landfall, but I haven't looked at much as to why they have it weakening in the central Gulf.

David Bernard just said there may be some wind shear that drops it to a Cat 2 in Central Gulf.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:03:30 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:30 GMT -6 Actually it looks about the same place for landfall from previous 12z run, a little slower.

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:05:08 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:08 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 15:54:16 GMT -6 missy said:

Oct 5, 2020 15:52:17 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Okay, but the NHC mentioned, as have several here, a decrease in strengthening as it approaches the coast. How much de-intensification if you will are we expecting for whichever coast it ultimately hits? Are we talking something like a Lily I think it was in 2002 which was 140 mph but by the time it got to the coast it was a Category 1 hurricane? Or is it really impossible to tell at this point?

Bruce Katz weakens it to Cat 2. 100 mph winds at landfall.

I believe that’s in keeping with the NHC forecast intensity. I’m not a met, but my guess is that the amount of “de-intensification” (😂) will be a nowcasting type of thing. NHC takes it from 120 mph down to 100 mph. I sincerely hope it is no stronger than 100 mph at landfall.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:05:25 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:25 GMT -6 Baton Rouge gets Delta's eye on this run.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

hurricaner Moderator Board Member Posts: 5,167 Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:05:42 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by hurricaner on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:42 GMT -6 The GFS has the strength wrong as it shows Delta having a pressure of 978mb not until 1pm on Wednesday.
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nolasim
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:06:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by nolasim on Oct 5, 2020 16:06:54 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 15:59:21 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Oct 5, 2020 15:54:16 GMT -6 missy said:

Bruce Katz weakens it to Cat 2. 100 mph winds at landfall.

Well, that's not "his" forecast. That's the official forecast. Not yet sure why the NHC is weakening it so fast in the central Gulf. I can see it weakening just prior to landfall, but I haven't looked at much as to why they have it weakening in the central Gulf.

I appreciate you clarifying that this is not "his" forecast per se. These days, especially locally, correct me if I'm wrong but I don't see any mets going rogue on forecasts as it were. Now, there are many doing so (not locally) on their own websites, but not locally.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:09:26 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Oct 5, 2020 16:09:26 GMT -6

nolasim
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:10:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by nolasim on Oct 5, 2020 16:10:40 GMT -6

The NNE direction upon landfall is certainly not a good scenario for SE LA. As with other storms though, this thinking may shift somewhat in the days ahead. Looking at the NHC cone, it's pretty tight through Thursday morning. After that, it opens up a goodly amount until landfall. Still TX/LA border all the way through Florida in play. That's a pretty wide range at the moment.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:12:16 GMT -6 via mobile klstiger, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

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Post by homeymandeville on Oct 5, 2020 16:12:16 GMT -6

Not to be one that brings up previous quotes, BUT, there was a well known, well respected pro-met, that used very poor judgement yesterday and was very condescending and negative in tone, towards Levi Cowen and Tropical Tidbits. He should probably retract his tone and statements made. He would be best served. JMO.

Levi was right in his early analysis.

NavyMom: WBR Parish
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:17:15 GMT -6 nolachic, Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP, and 2 more like this

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Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 16:17:15 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 16:12:16 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

Not to be one that brings up previous quotes, BUT, there was a well known, well respected pro-met, that used very poor judgement yesterday and was very condescending and negative in tone, towards Levi Cowen and Tropical Tidbits. He should probably retract his tone and statements made. He would be best served. JMO.

Levi was right in his early analysis.

Don’t get me started on how this “pro-Met” crawfished his way out of what he said.
I’m done with him.

Levi is the man!

“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”

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WU:
www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 5, 2020 16:18:34 GMT -6 HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN, SKYSUMMIT, and 6 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Oct 5, 2020 16:18:34 GMT -6 I've been done with him since Katrina.
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Post by nolachic on Oct 5, 2020 16:01:01 GMT -6

Post by M. Geissler on Oct 5, 2020 16:02:12 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:01 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:12 GMT -6

Post by missy on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:19 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 5, 2020 16:03:30 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:08 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:25 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 5, 2020 16:05:42 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Oct 5, 2020 16:06:54 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Oct 5, 2020 16:09:26 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Oct 5, 2020 16:10:40 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 5, 2020 16:12:16 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 5, 2020 16:17:15 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Oct 5, 2020 16:18:34 GMT -6

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