HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

lilspud
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 1:48:03 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 1:48:03 GMT -6

It is looking more and more like this thing is heading for SE Louisiana. We haven’t really had extreme windshield wiper effect in models. They have generally been within a 50-100 mile range for 48 hours now. The models now have recon data as well. I hope everyone takes this storm seriously.

gullywasher
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 1:52:14 GMT -6 Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP likes this

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Post by gullywasher on Oct 6, 2020 1:52:14 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 1:48:03 GMT -6 lilspud said:

It is looking more and more like this thing is heading for SE Louisiana. We haven’t really had extreme windshield wiper effect in models. They have generally been within a 50-100 mile range for 48 hours now. The models now have recon data as well. I hope everyone takes this storm seriously.

and it's still in the Caribbean, we cab talk windshield wiper effect maybe when it gets into the gulf ?

If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 2:24:04 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA, gullywasher, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2020 2:24:04 GMT -6 Looks to be about 970 mb or so, surface winds near 90-100 mph. Almost a Cat 2, if not one by now.

NavyMom: WBR Parish Moderator Posts: 1,571 Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 3:10:28 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 6, 2020 3:10:28 GMT -6 The 4am track coming ashore shifted west.
	“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.” Ambient Weather: ambientweather.net/dashboard/29355f8f3f87e2a4ec7ccc562ab0f3cf WU: www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 3:32:52 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and lisamath like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2020 3:32:52 GMT -6

cajunlady Tropical Low Posts: 13	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 3:33:49 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajunlady on Oct 6, 2020 3:33:49 GMT -6 Size of the storm in miles? And watches and warnings going up today or tomorrow? Evacuations?

lilspud
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Posts: 575

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 3:37:21 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 3:37:21 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 3:33:49 GMT -6 cajunlady said:

Size of the storm in miles? And watches and warnings going up today or tomorrow? Evacuations?

I’m thinking watches come Wednesday morning. Evacuations, I’m not sure on. I’m sure all the usual places will but it will be a hard call for some places. You could have a strong cat 3 sitting in the gulf but it will hopefully weaken some before landfall.

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2020 3:40:12 GMT -6 by lilspud

lilspud GCWX Supporter Posts: 575	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 3:59:47 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 3:59:47 GMT -6 6Z GFS is a smidge west and slightly slower.

roz GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,192	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:19:25 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish and lilspud like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by roz on Oct 6, 2020 4:19:25 GMT -6 06z GFS closer look

Will - Ascension Parish
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:22:55 GMT -6 via mobile VERticalnoGO and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Oct 6, 2020 4:22:55 GMT -6

Is there any aircraft data that is NOT included in the model runs now? Trying to figure out if we are at the point of pretty much knowing where this is headed or if there’s still a lot of uncertainty. Either way, I’m probably not preparing until Thursday afternoon/evening if things still look this way by then. I hate to be part of the problem, but I’m just fed up with pouring money into preparations only for it to go east or west.

gullywasher
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:29:20 GMT -6

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Post by gullywasher on Oct 6, 2020 4:29:20 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 4:22:55 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Is there any aircraft data that is NOT included in the model runs now? Trying to figure out if we are at the point of pretty much knowing where this is headed or if there’s still a lot of uncertainty. Either way, I’m probably not preparing until Thursday afternoon/evening if things still look this way by then. I hate to be part of the problem, but I’m just fed up with pouring money into preparations only for it to go east or west.

well, I'm no expert but I do have reservations at a Holiday Inn Express so I say we don't know nuttin yet < looks around innocently> :embarassed:

If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"

lilspud
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Posts: 575

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:33:29 GMT -6 missmissy, Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP, and 1 more like this

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Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 4:33:29 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 4:22:55 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Is there any aircraft data that is NOT included in the model runs now? Trying to figure out if we are at the point of pretty much knowing where this is headed or if there’s still a lot of uncertainty. Either way, I’m probably not preparing until Thursday afternoon/evening if things still look this way by then. I hate to be part of the problem, but I’m just fed up with pouring money into preparations only for it to go east or west.

I am waiting on Zack to give us his thoughts. I watched Fox 8 this morning and Shelby seemed to have a more serious tone than I have seen her have with some of the other storms. She mentioned the models keep showing the same thing and have for awhile. John Snell started talking to her and tried to downplay it a bit telling people to realize something is out there to keep an eye on but not to get worked up yet and she didn't say much back. It was a bit awkward.

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2020 4:40:27 GMT -6 by lilspud

optimist GCWX Supporter Posts: 637	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:38:03 GMT -6 via mobile roz likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by optimist on Oct 6, 2020 4:38:03 GMT -6 Oct 6, 2020 4:19:25 GMT -6 roz said: 06z GFS closer look GFS doesn’t even show the NE movement once inland. Goes from MC to BR. Guess LSU has to start making decisions.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:48:39 GMT -6 loogaroo, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 4:48:39 GMT -6 Delta has such a tiny eye, the eyewall is about the size of the Cayman Islands.

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 4:53:38 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Oct 6, 2020 4:53:38 GMT -6 As I mentioned yesterday, the cone through Thursday is very narrow; after that it is quite expansive. The models are eye candy for now but best bet is to follow the NHC track.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 1:48:03 GMT -6

Post by gullywasher on Oct 6, 2020 1:52:14 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2020 2:24:04 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 6, 2020 3:10:28 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Oct 6, 2020 3:32:52 GMT -6

Post by cajunlady on Oct 6, 2020 3:33:49 GMT -6

Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 3:37:21 GMT -6

Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 3:59:47 GMT -6

Post by roz on Oct 6, 2020 4:19:25 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Oct 6, 2020 4:22:55 GMT -6

Post by gullywasher on Oct 6, 2020 4:29:20 GMT -6

Post by lilspud on Oct 6, 2020 4:33:29 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Oct 6, 2020 4:38:03 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 4:48:39 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Oct 6, 2020 4:53:38 GMT -6

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