HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Remnants/Dissipated

julieo - Thibodaux
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:04:12 GMT -6 via mobile VERticalnoGO and cwilken21 like this

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Post by julieo - Thibodaux on Oct 6, 2020 13:04:12 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 10:29:40 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Here is my forecasting experience talking. Usually models have it right at first, then they shift only to shift back. Sally a great example, originally it was more so towards MS Gulf Coast, then that west shift happened days 3-4 sending SE LA into a tizy and welp we know the end result. Laura shifted west, some all the way into Texas/Houston, only to come back to SW LA. I'm not trying to scare anyone because look this track might be solid and dead on but these are the realities from prior storms.

If a storm track goes into Vermilion Bay moving NNW, none of SE LA will be out of the cone anytime soon.

Bumping this in case anyone missed it! The initial track guidance has it coming in St. Mary Parish. Now I'm curious, if the track shifts, whether or not it returns to initial track.

I have made Plans A B & C.
(Patterson, LA)

klstiger
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:05:04 GMT -6 intheridge, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 2 more like this

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Post by klstiger on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:04 GMT -6

Oct 5, 2020 22:54:15 GMT -6 gullywasher said:

I still request a Captain Obvious AND a Captain Oblivious emoji's

Before we get into "storm mode", Gully I hope you get those emojis added.

Geaux Tigers

nolacane Tropical Low Posts: 1	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:05:06 GMT -6 weather2a likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolacane on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:06 GMT -6 Looks like the 3 day cone totally missed including Cancun within 48 hours of impact, which will see a Cat4 with little time to prepare. This cone was just posted yesterday afternoon....

lsuhurricane Category 2 Posts: 552	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:05:38 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsuhurricane on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:38 GMT -6 Same with the west CMC. It shows Delta currently at 992mb. I suspect that reason alone is what drives them further west before making the northern turn.

NavyMom: WBR Parish
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:06:17 GMT -6 nolasim, camphigrades, and 1 more like this

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Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 6, 2020 13:06:17 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 12:55:43 GMT -6 stormweary said:

That is what I am trying to figure out, CMS it sounds like the all clear but the new track hasn’t come up yet. I am confused.

Not one person has said any specific area is out of the woods.
Yesterday, Levi said the spaghetti models are not meant to be used by anyone other than professionals. We need to pay attention to the Cone of Error and the official NHC track.

“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”

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HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:07:03 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish and bunkie68 - WBR Parish like this

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Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Oct 6, 2020 13:07:03 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 13:01:14 GMT -6 stormweary said:

Thank you NG and Harahan Tim I do follow the NHC but all the talk of 5 day cone should be changed to 3 day cone because it’s misleading was very confusing.

Thanks, stormweary, I think that is a great topic...for a separate thread, or another time.

I'm certainly not picking anyone out, for reinforcing the guidelines, just didn't like the general feel, as we are starting to get plenty of interest to the forum, and we don't want people to jump on, and get confused, right off the bat. Lord knows, we have enough confusion, in 2020, and especially this hurricane season!

A big thanks to all, for keeping our discussions interesting and informative!

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weather2a
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:08:48 GMT -6 vacheriegirl likes this

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Post by weather2a on Oct 6, 2020 13:08:48 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 13:05:06 GMT -6 nolacane said:

Looks like the 3 day cone totally missed including Cancun within 48 hours of impact, which will see a Cat4 with little time to prepare. This cone was just posted yesterday afternoon....

The north jog shown in the cone while the storm was still moving W and WNW should have been a big red flag.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6 lisamath likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6 A closer look at the 18z TVCN, a good ~45 mile shift to the west.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,363	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:11:06 GMT -6 via mobile julieo - Thibodaux likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Oct 6, 2020 13:11:06 GMT -6 Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6 ndg said: A closer look at the 18z TVCN, a good ~45 mile shift to the west. Still to close to be a comfort to St Mary, Lafourche and Terrebonne
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

harpman - old GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,449	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:12:18 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman - old on Oct 6, 2020 13:12:18 GMT -6 Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6 ndg said: A closer look at the 18z TVCN, a good ~45 mile shift to the west. This just came out?
	Blowin' harp!

Bayou Medic
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:12:19 GMT -6 nolasim, harpman - old, and 16 more like this

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Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2020 13:12:19 GMT -6

Hey Gang!

Some house rules; This is a forum where many will post their opinions. Some may agree & others may disagree with said opinion.
Please DO NOT bash or name call any other member of the forum; moderators are watching and action will be taken immediately.

If you post an opinion on a topic, please try tro refrain from saying a certain area is now in the clear or such similar wording.

Example: " EURO shows Lake Charles landfall, SELA seems to be in the clear"
Please refrain from such wording, just a simple " EURO showing a Lake Charles impact" gets the message across.

We will be monitoring more closely over the coming hours & days as landfall threat increases for many members.
Please keep the forum topics, on topic, and refrain from the side conversations.

Lastly, we all have opininions on model runs etc, HOWEVER, remember the NHC forecast is the ONLY official forecast that should be utilized to protect you & your family reagrding any storm related preparations etc.

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Bayou Medic
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:14:24 GMT -6 sjbpgal-St. John Parish and fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA like this

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Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2020 13:14:24 GMT -6

With Delta so far out, and such a strong storm at this point. It's almost inevitable to think it won't go through a EWRC (Eye Wall Replacement Cycle). When & if it does, thats when we shall see the storm size expand - including the windfeild.

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weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:15:17 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Oct 6, 2020 13:15:17 GMT -6 Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6 ndg said: A closer look at the 18z TVCN, a good ~45 mile shift to the west. big west huh
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

hurricaner
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:19:16 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2020 13:19:16 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 12:50:09 GMT -6 cms102076 said:

Oct 6, 2020 12:45:28 GMT -6 ndg said:

And to think not one model is in Texas and only 2 show Southwest Louisiana but for some reason I am getting the impression that some people on here are sounding the all clear...Highly Irresponsible. In addition the Euro has been wrong all year and has had a Western Bias....

Keep in mind that most of the model runs on this map are from 06Z or 00Z

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harpman - old GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,449	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 13:22:07 GMT -6 via mobile flora... Covington, near CHS, sjbpgal-St. John Parish, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman - old on Oct 6, 2020 13:22:07 GMT -6 The thing I'm waiting to see is how much of the Yucatán peninsula it crosses and what disruption that would cause to the intensity.
	Blowin' harp!

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Post by julieo - Thibodaux on Oct 6, 2020 13:04:12 GMT -6

Post by klstiger on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:04 GMT -6

Post by nolacane on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:06 GMT -6

Post by lsuhurricane on Oct 6, 2020 13:05:38 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 6, 2020 13:06:17 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Oct 6, 2020 13:07:03 GMT -6

Post by weather2a on Oct 6, 2020 13:08:48 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 13:09:54 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Oct 6, 2020 13:11:06 GMT -6

Post by harpman - old on Oct 6, 2020 13:12:18 GMT -6

Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2020 13:12:19 GMT -6

Post by Bayou Medic on Oct 6, 2020 13:14:24 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Oct 6, 2020 13:15:17 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Oct 6, 2020 13:19:16 GMT -6

Post by harpman - old on Oct 6, 2020 13:22:07 GMT -6

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