HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:14:16 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, abitamom, and 3 more like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2020 19:14:16 GMT -6

It's almost a lose/lose situation right now depending on where you are. I just took a look at layered wind analysis and this is one of those weird scenarios (as of now) that a stronger storm would be steered by deeper layer ridging and move farther west. A slightly weaker storm could turn north sooner. Now this is all looking at the current set up and not taking into account any of the new data being ingested into tonight's models so I'm sure this whole crap post will change LOL

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stormweary GCWX Supporter Posts: 370	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:14:48 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:14:48 GMT -6 The Caminada Chaniere storm took the lives of several of our family around Grand Isle Chaniere and Lafourche.
	Last Edit: Oct 6, 2020 19:17:40 GMT -6 by stormweary

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,540 Staff Member	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6 Recon fixes certainly show it's gaining a good bit a latitude now. More north than true WNW.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

ndg
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:16:12 GMT -6 harpman - old likes this

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Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 19:16:12 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:08:15 GMT -6 harpman - old said:

Oct 6, 2020 19:03:33 GMT -6 ndg said:

Delta has definitely weakened this evening, at least for now.

009
URNT15 KWBC 070058
NOAA3 0626A DELTA HDOB 22 20201007
004900 1959N 08405W 6944 03146 9991 +105 +083 121051 052 033 000 00
004930 1957N 08406W 6945 03142 9992 +102 +086 120053 054 032 000 00
005000 1956N 08408W 6944 03143 9986 +105 +087 119055 056 033 001 00
005030 1954N 08410W 6942 03143 9982 +107 +088 120058 058 032 002 00
005100 1952N 08411W 6945 03136 9977 +109 +080 119057 058 035 001 00
005130 1951N 08413W 6943 03136 9975 +108 +084 120055 056 037 001 00
005200 1949N 08415W 6947 03128 9967 +110 +091 121055 055 038 001 00
005230 1948N 08416W 6944 03127 9954 +119 +081 123057 058 040 001 00
005300 1946N 08418W 6946 03120 9945 +122 +081 123059 059 041 001 00
005330 1945N 08420W 6946 03115 9939 +123 +078 123060 060 042 001 00
005400 1943N 08421W 6944 03113 9930 +125 +082 121063 064 043 001 00
005430 1942N 08423W 6943 03108 9917 +132 +072 119068 069 048 000 00
005500 1940N 08425W 6945 03098 9898 +141 +074 117069 071 049 001 00
005530 1939N 08426W 6949 03085 9886 +141 +088 118073 076 051 002 00
005600 1937N 08428W 6956 03064 9859 +155 +081 117077 078 055 001 00
005630 1935N 08430W 6950 03062 9822 +177 +071 115074 076 059 001 00
005700 1934N 08431W 6954 03033 9771 +204 +069 114075 077 063 000 00
005730 1932N 08433W 6957 03007 9737 +212 +077 117075 078 060 001 00
005800 1931N 08435W 6941 03007 9689 +236 +068 120075 077 053 001 00
005830 1929N 08436W 6946 02977 9669 +234 +068 120072 075 041 001 00

Cat 2?

Yes, at the most.

nolachic
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:18:09 GMT -6 whitecap, courtney0726, and 2 more like this

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Post by nolachic on Oct 6, 2020 19:18:09 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:08:01 GMT -6 loogaroo said:

Check out the 1893 Cheniere Caminada hurricane...link

The Chenière Caminada hurricane, also known as the Great October Storm, was a powerful hurricane that devastated the island of Chenière Caminada, Louisiana in early October 1893. It was one of three deadly hurricanes during the 1893 Atlantic hurricane season; the storm killed an estimated 2,000 people,[1][2] mostly from storm surge.

And, just imagine, no board like this, no news on the hour, no updates, NO TV, no NOTHING. You're sitting on your porch and you know a strong Gulf something is brewing but you have no clue what it about to hit you. I can't fathom the fear as they were going through it.

Thou shall not utter her name

roz
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:19:50 GMT -6

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Post by roz on Oct 6, 2020 19:19:50 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Recon fixes certainly show it's gaining a good bit a latitude now. More north than true WNW.

It is funny that you posted that because I was just looking at that too on Google Earth. It almost looks like if it keeps gaining northerly latitude that it could miss the Yucatan.

solomon2345 Tropical Low Posts: 28	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:20:27 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by solomon2345 on Oct 6, 2020 19:20:27 GMT -6 Should we have a good idea tomorrow morning of where it makes landfall?

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:20:50 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, xty624, and 4 more like this

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Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 6, 2020 19:20:50 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:18:09 GMT -6 nolachic said:

Oct 6, 2020 19:08:01 GMT -6 loogaroo said:

Check out the 1893 Cheniere Caminada hurricane...link

And, just imagine, no board like this, no news on the hour, no updates, NO TV, no NOTHING. You're sitting on your porch and you know a strong Gulf something is brewing but you have no clue what it about to hit you. I can't fathom the fear as they were going through it.

When you go back and research these storms you realize just how far weather forecasting has come. Imagine no warning? It just comes.

Weather forecasts will never be perfect but a week ago we talked about the potential of a storm in the Gulf. A WEEK AGO. Precision is the enemy of accuracy as everyone wants to know what about my house? That just doesn't exist in weather and may never in our lifetime.

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stormweary
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:21:51 GMT -6 via mobile whitecap and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this

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Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:21:51 GMT -6

I was told it was a tourist spot and a ferry had to take them to the Mainland but by the time they realized how bad it was it was too late. There was a book on it. I read it over 50 years ago. My older family members spoke of it often.

homeymandeville
Category 5

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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:21:56 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 6, 2020 19:21:56 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Recon fixes certainly show it's gaining a good bit a latitude now. More north than true WNW.

And thus would possibly factor into the 0z model runs showing a smidge back to the east. I guess we’ll look for the trends once again.

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:23:37 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 6, 2020 19:23:37 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:18:09 GMT -6 nolachic said:

Oct 6, 2020 19:08:01 GMT -6 loogaroo said:

Check out the 1893 Cheniere Caminada hurricane...link

And, just imagine, no board like this, no news on the hour, no updates, NO TV, no NOTHING. You're sitting on your porch and you know a strong Gulf something is brewing but you have no clue what it about to hit you. I can't fathom the fear as they were going through it.

There was a book written about it. A friend from Grand Isle told me some of the survivors’ stories. Terrible stuff.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,282	HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:24:25 GMT -6 via mobile greeneyedgirl, redrover, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Oct 6, 2020 19:24:25 GMT -6 I’m really beginning to think that we will know much more once we know more.

optimist
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:29:30 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by optimist on Oct 6, 2020 19:29:30 GMT -6

Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Recon fixes certainly show it's gaining a good bit a latitude now. More north than true WNW.

I thought that earlier looking at radar. Slightly more north than WNW. Wondering how much of the Yucatán gets hit.

lsurebel
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:30:49 GMT -6 via mobile xty624, burasla, and 4 more like this

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Post by lsurebel on Oct 6, 2020 19:30:49 GMT -6

During Cristibol, Marcos, Laura, Sally, all SE LA were in the cone, then 36 hours out I wake up and pull up this forum and something drastic has changed. Shift East, shift west, weakened, etc.

When we wake up tomorrow morning, what are we going to find? The models are tight now, but are we going to wake up to a west swing, east swing, or status quo?

Regardless I wish all of you luck for family safety and property. There will be more than likely loss of life because people are people and don’t listen to warnings. This could be a storm they “hope - forecast” slows down. A major landfall in Louisiana will be life changing for who ever it lands on. Ask Laura victims, or Sally victims that dealt with a Cat 2. Good luck everyone, make your preps tomorrow.

Last Edit: Oct 6, 2020 19:33:56 GMT -6 by lsurebel

stormweary
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HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread Oct 6, 2020 19:31:30 GMT -6 via mobile redrover, PinkFreud - Nola FQ, and 1 more like this

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Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:31:30 GMT -6

Look up delta farms it’s just north of Larose. My mother was born there. It flooded twice. They evacuated for Betsy and it flooded and it was decided not to drain it. Everything is still down below the water where they left it. No lives were lost at least.

HURRICANE DELTA Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 6, 2020 19:14:16 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:14:48 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 6, 2020 19:15:52 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Oct 6, 2020 19:16:12 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Oct 6, 2020 19:18:09 GMT -6

Post by roz on Oct 6, 2020 19:19:50 GMT -6

Post by solomon2345 on Oct 6, 2020 19:20:27 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Oct 6, 2020 19:20:50 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:21:51 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Oct 6, 2020 19:21:56 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Oct 6, 2020 19:23:37 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Oct 6, 2020 19:24:25 GMT -6

Post by optimist on Oct 6, 2020 19:29:30 GMT -6

Post by lsurebel on Oct 6, 2020 19:30:49 GMT -6

Post by stormweary on Oct 6, 2020 19:31:30 GMT -6

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