15% usually equates to a Slight Risk so I'll go ahead and label the threat as "Slight". Reed Timmer did talk about a southern Dixie Alley tornado threat as well.
Post by thermalwind on Dec 29, 2020 4:15:41 GMT -6
Hope everyone is paying attention, this set up has some potential for sure.
Dynamics providing an amble environment for tilted updrafts and rotation. This is from the NAM for noon on New Year's Eve. Enough convective inhibition to keep storms from firing here, but this paints a picture of a dangerous warm sector.
Strong low level jet, especially into southern Mississippi by midnight New Year's.
A solid 140 kt jet pushing in toward our low level jet max, providing some upper divergence right where you have the developing low level jet and moisture pushing in from the Gulf.
I think for us in south Louisiana, we end up with more of a quasi-linear cluster of strong storms with some wind and tornado potential. I do think the highest potential with this will most likely be central LA/southern MS/southern AL. Typical of our winter time severe weather set ups, not a ton of instability shown but enough with robust dynamics to support severe weather. Keep an ear out for warnings NYE y'all.
Hope everyone is paying attention, this set up has some potential for sure.
Dynamics providing an amble environment for tilted updrafts and rotation. This is from the NAM for noon on New Year's Eve. Enough convective inhibition to keep storms from firing here, but this paints a picture of a dangerous warm sector.
Strong low level jet, especially into southern Mississippi by midnight New Year's.
A solid 140 kt jet pushing in toward our low level jet max, providing some upper divergence right where you have the developing low level jet and moisture pushing in from the Gulf.
I think for us in south Louisiana, we end up with more of a quasi-linear cluster of strong storms with some wind and tornado potential. I do think the highest potential with this will most likely be central LA/southern MS/southern AL. Typical of our winter time severe weather set ups, not a ton of instability shown but enough with robust dynamics to support severe weather. Keep an ear out for warnings NYE y'all.
Reed Timmer got my attention on his FB post a few minutes ago!
“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”
If anyone is wondering what Timmer's words were this morning:
"TORNADO OUTBREAK potential on New Year's Eve continues to increase across a large part of Dixie Alley, with the greatest potential for tornadoes across central/southern LA through central/southern MS. Eastern half of the target area will be overnight Thurs PM."
Here is an excerpt from this morning's SPC discussion as well:
Instability is forecast to gradually increase across the moist sector, which should be located from Louisiana to southwestern Alabama. Discrete thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front across the moist sector could have a wind damage and tornado potential. During the late afternoon, the most favorable area would be in far southeast Louisiana, where the models maximize instability at the northern end of the moist axis. The corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to shift eastward across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama during the evening and overnight period. Models suggest the possibility of a convective line located along the moist axis.