Severe Weather Discussion - 12/31/2020

I will get to test out my new weather station Santa brought!!

15% usually equates to a Slight Risk so I'll go ahead and label the threat as "Slight". Reed Timmer did talk about a southern Dixie Alley tornado threat as well.

Is this weather supposed to be earlier in the day or the evening? We have a big firework display....

Hope everyone is paying attention, this set up has some potential for sure.




Dynamics providing an amble environment for tilted updrafts and rotation. This is from the NAM for noon on New Year's Eve. Enough convective inhibition to keep storms from firing here, but this paints a picture of a dangerous warm sector. 



Strong low level jet, especially into southern Mississippi by midnight New Year's. 



A solid 140 kt jet pushing in toward our low level jet max, providing some upper divergence right where you have the developing low level jet and moisture pushing in from the Gulf. 

I think for us in south Louisiana, we end up with more of a quasi-linear cluster of strong storms with some wind and tornado potential. I do think the highest potential with this will most likely be central LA/southern MS/southern AL. Typical of our winter time severe weather set ups, not a ton of instability shown but enough with robust dynamics to support severe weather. Keep an ear out for warnings NYE y'all.

I love ya Reed, just don't want to see you in my neck of the woods!

Seriously though, Sky's and Reed's posts definitely have my attention!

Pretty confident we'll see an upgrade to Enhanced Risk at some point