3/23/2021 - 3/24/2021 Heavy Rain, Severe, Flood Discussion

Lake Charles:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
951 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

.UPDATE...
Visible satellite this morning depicts overcast mid and high
clouds emanating from a deepening surface low over north Texas encroaching
from the west. This low is progged to deepen while progressing
east through the day resulting in gusty southerly winds this
afternoon. Isolated showers will develop in the increasingly
saturated atmosphere by this afternoon with more widespread
precipitation expected overnight into Tuesday morning as a
frontal boundary approaches the region. The only change to the
forecast this morning was a massage of hourly PoPs to align with
the latest short range guidance. The rest of the forecast is on
track.

Jones

The hi-res models are really starting to zone into the south shore and MS gulf coast regions.

Is this something schools should be paying attention to for timing? I know in Lafourche Parish there’s areas that buses won’t be able to pass if it floods.

That's it...storm cancel!


NEW ORLEANS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

.A cold front will move into the region Tuesday. This front will
move very slowly through the area and is expected to stall over
southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. This front will remain
over the area through Wednesday before lifting north Thursday with a
cold front finally pushing through late Thursday or Thursday
evening. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected with
widespread 4 to 8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts
possible.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-230145-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0001.210323T1300Z-210326T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington-
St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension-
Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche-
St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St.
Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower
Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa-
Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River-
Hancock-Harrison-Jackson-
Including the cities of Convent, Gonzales, Dexter, Chalmette,
Covington, Buras, Cut Off, Belle Chasse, White Castle, East New
Orleans, Gramercy, Bayou Cane, Amite, Pascagoula, Raceland,
Wakefield, Gloster, Waveland, Easleyville, McComb, McNeil,
Montpelier, Livonia, Darlington, Gillsberg, Gulfport, Jackson,
Spillman, Greensburg, Liberty, Port Allen, Diamondhead, Roseland,
Hammond, Metairie, Salem, Boothville, Galliano, Chauvin, Kenner, St.
Francisville, Enon, St. Martin, Clinton, Labadieville, Dulac,
Thibodaux, Yscloskey, Myrtle Grove, Mandeville, Prairieville,
Violet, Dolorosa, Donaldsonville, Lutcher, Ocean Springs, Robert,
Bogalusa, Larose, Poplarville, Tylertown, Centreville, Destrehan,
Baton Rouge, New Roads, Lettsworth, Picayune, Paincourtville, Pointe
A La Hache, Bay St. Louis, Leeville, Franklinton, Gautier, Slidell,
Walker, Felps, Laplace, Woodville, Denham Springs, New Orleans,
Montegut, Wilmer, Golden Meadow, Cocodrie, Venice, Lacombe,
Plaquemine, Fort Adams, Brusly, Bayou Sorrel, Kentwood, Pierre Part,
Watson, Houma, Addis, Smithdale, Moss Point, Ponchatoula,
Crossroads, Norco, Reserve, Port Sulphur, and Empire
1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and
Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast
Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East
Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower
Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower Terrebonne,
Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Southern Tangipahoa,
St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John The Baptist, St.
Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines,
Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge
and West Feliciana. In Mississippi, Amite, Hancock, Harrison,
Jackson, Pearl River, Pike, Walthall and Wilkinson.

* From Tuesday morning through Thursday evening

* Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain is expected across
southeast Louisiana along with southern and coastal Mississippi.
This could lead to flash flooding.

* Flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is possible with
localized flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

---

MOBILE

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

ALZ051>053-261>266-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230145-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0003.210324T0000Z-210326T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile
Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Wayne-
Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
Including the cities of Chatom, Wiggins, Jackson, Fort Morgan,
Orange Beach, Fairhope, New Augusta, Grand Bay, Butler, Lucedale,
Thomasville, Lisman, Foley, Grove Hill, Spanish Fort, Theodore,
Silas, Citronelle, Leakesville, Waynesboro, Daphne, Gulf Shores,
Mobile, Dauphin Island, Bay Minette, Richton, Prichard, Stockton,
Millry, Beaumont, Saraland, McLain, and Bayou La Batre
1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for Portions of southwest Alabama, including the
following areas, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland,
Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland and
Washington. Portions of southeast Mississippi, including the
following areas, George, Greene, Perry, Stone and Wayne.

* From Tuesday evening through Friday morning.

* A multi-day heavy rainfall is about to unfold across our region.
The first wave will affect the watch area tomorrow night through
midday Wednesday with additional rounds of heavy rainfall
thereafter through late Thursday. After the lead wave of heavy
rainfall, it will be more difficult to pinpoint the exact location
of subsequent excessive rainfall areas. The counties under this
watch have relatively much higher chances of seeing that excessive
rainfall versus not. The northern portion of the watch area was
included due to the heavy rainfall and flash flooding that
occurred last week. While the southern portion of the watch area
did not receive as much, they are most in line to receive between
5 and 10" of rainfall from the first wave during the first 24
hours after onset. Local amounts may be higher.

* Excessively high rainfall rates will likely exceed one-, three and
six hour flash flood guidance across the watch area. This will
likely result in rapid rises in small creeks and streams, and in
particular, flash flooding over urban areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

The VIPIR graphics animation with Bruce Katz a few minutes ago was not all that impressive to me. Yes it showed the stalled front but rain shield seemed small and moving. Dunno. Everything else points to a significant event and Bruce didn’t change the narrative. Never a fan of VIPIR anyway.

Here's the graphic for the FFW:

Bruce just showed the VIPIR animation again. Much more realistic. I think the one 20 minutes ago was the wrong one?  Anyway, he mentioned the FFW starting tomorrow.. And yes, the VIPIR looks nasty.