Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 22, 2021 9:33:03 GMT -6
Scary stuff, because the GFS and EURO, certainly show the setup is there. The only difference, they have had the heaviest of the rain, just slightly south and east of metro New Orleans. The HRRR brings the heaviest, right into the most vulnerable area. The HRRR has always had my attention, ever since the Baton Rouge/North Shore flood of August, 2016. The area had already been served a crazy amount of rain, but that Saturday evening, the HRRR went bonkers, forecasting like a foot more, for that night. Ignored by almost all the professionals (we amateurs were sounding the alarm here), we know the model proved right. Hopefully, this time, it is off a bit!
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 951 AM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
.UPDATE... Visible satellite this morning depicts overcast mid and high clouds emanating from a deepening surface low over north Texas encroaching from the west. This low is progged to deepen while progressing east through the day resulting in gusty southerly winds this afternoon. Isolated showers will develop in the increasingly saturated atmosphere by this afternoon with more widespread precipitation expected overnight into Tuesday morning as a frontal boundary approaches the region. The only change to the forecast this morning was a massage of hourly PoPs to align with the latest short range guidance. The rest of the forecast is on track.
Scary stuff, because the GFS and EURO, certainly show the setup is there. The only difference, they have had the heaviest of the rain, just slightly south and east of metro New Orleans. The HRRR brings the heaviest, right into the most vulnerable area. The HRRR has always had my attention, ever since the Baton Rouge/North Shore flood of August, 2016. The area had already been served a crazy amount of rain, but that Saturday evening, the HRRR went bonkers, forecasting like a foot more, for that night. Ignored by almost all the professionals (we amateurs were sounding the alarm here), we know the model proved right. Hopefully, this time, it is off a bit!
Exactly right.....I stay in Bogalusa...I remember the HRRR prediction of the flood of 2016...The amount of rain fall that it predicted was laughable....But the HRRR got the last laugh.....It flooded in places that has NEVER flooded before...It was SPOT on....So someone will be seeing some dangerous rainfall.....
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 22, 2021 10:48:25 GMT -6
Thanks for the graphic Scott. Just another classic setup of training. 5 miles will probably be the difference between the drier winners and flooded losers. This event and probably most of the week is a nowcaster’s dream.
Post by courtney0726 on Mar 22, 2021 11:08:07 GMT -6
Is this something schools should be paying attention to for timing? I know in Lafourche Parish there’s areas that buses won’t be able to pass if it floods.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
.A cold front will move into the region Tuesday. This front will move very slowly through the area and is expected to stall over southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. This front will remain over the area through Wednesday before lifting north Thursday with a cold front finally pushing through late Thursday or Thursday evening. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected with widespread 4 to 8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-230145- /O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0001.210323T1300Z-210326T0500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington- St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension- Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche- St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa- Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River- Hancock-Harrison-Jackson- Including the cities of Convent, Gonzales, Dexter, Chalmette, Covington, Buras, Cut Off, Belle Chasse, White Castle, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Bayou Cane, Amite, Pascagoula, Raceland, Wakefield, Gloster, Waveland, Easleyville, McComb, McNeil, Montpelier, Livonia, Darlington, Gillsberg, Gulfport, Jackson, Spillman, Greensburg, Liberty, Port Allen, Diamondhead, Roseland, Hammond, Metairie, Salem, Boothville, Galliano, Chauvin, Kenner, St. Francisville, Enon, St. Martin, Clinton, Labadieville, Dulac, Thibodaux, Yscloskey, Myrtle Grove, Mandeville, Prairieville, Violet, Dolorosa, Donaldsonville, Lutcher, Ocean Springs, Robert, Bogalusa, Larose, Poplarville, Tylertown, Centreville, Destrehan, Baton Rouge, New Roads, Lettsworth, Picayune, Paincourtville, Pointe A La Hache, Bay St. Louis, Leeville, Franklinton, Gautier, Slidell, Walker, Felps, Laplace, Woodville, Denham Springs, New Orleans, Montegut, Wilmer, Golden Meadow, Cocodrie, Venice, Lacombe, Plaquemine, Fort Adams, Brusly, Bayou Sorrel, Kentwood, Pierre Part, Watson, Houma, Addis, Smithdale, Moss Point, Ponchatoula, Crossroads, Norco, Reserve, Port Sulphur, and Empire 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana. In Mississippi, Amite, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Pike, Walthall and Wilkinson.
* From Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
* Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Louisiana along with southern and coastal Mississippi. This could lead to flash flooding.
* Flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is possible with localized flash flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
MOBILE
Flood Watch National Weather Service Mobile AL 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
ALZ051>053-261>266-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-230145- /O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0003.210324T0000Z-210326T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Wayne- Perry-Greene-Stone-George- Including the cities of Chatom, Wiggins, Jackson, Fort Morgan, Orange Beach, Fairhope, New Augusta, Grand Bay, Butler, Lucedale, Thomasville, Lisman, Foley, Grove Hill, Spanish Fort, Theodore, Silas, Citronelle, Leakesville, Waynesboro, Daphne, Gulf Shores, Mobile, Dauphin Island, Bay Minette, Richton, Prichard, Stockton, Millry, Beaumont, Saraland, McLain, and Bayou La Batre 1243 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for Portions of southwest Alabama, including the following areas, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Choctaw, Clarke, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland and Washington. Portions of southeast Mississippi, including the following areas, George, Greene, Perry, Stone and Wayne.
* From Tuesday evening through Friday morning.
* A multi-day heavy rainfall is about to unfold across our region. The first wave will affect the watch area tomorrow night through midday Wednesday with additional rounds of heavy rainfall thereafter through late Thursday. After the lead wave of heavy rainfall, it will be more difficult to pinpoint the exact location of subsequent excessive rainfall areas. The counties under this watch have relatively much higher chances of seeing that excessive rainfall versus not. The northern portion of the watch area was included due to the heavy rainfall and flash flooding that occurred last week. While the southern portion of the watch area did not receive as much, they are most in line to receive between 5 and 10" of rainfall from the first wave during the first 24 hours after onset. Local amounts may be higher.
* Excessively high rainfall rates will likely exceed one-, three and six hour flash flood guidance across the watch area. This will likely result in rapid rises in small creeks and streams, and in particular, flash flooding over urban areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Last Edit: Mar 22, 2021 11:44:33 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
.A cold front will move into the region Tuesday. This front will move very slowly through the area and is expected to stall over southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. This front will remain over the area through Wednesday before lifting north Thursday with a cold front finally pushing through late Thursday or Thursday evening. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected with widespread 4 to 8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.
LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-230145- /O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0001.210323T1300Z-210326T0500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Pointe Coupee-West Feliciana-East Feliciana-St. Helena-Washington- St. Tammany-Iberville-West Baton Rouge-East Baton Rouge-Ascension- Livingston-Assumption-St. James-St. John The Baptist-Upper Lafourche- St. Charles-Upper Jefferson-Orleans-Upper Plaquemines-Upper St. Bernard-Upper Terrebonne-Lower Terrebonne-Lower Lafourche-Lower Jefferson-Lower Plaquemines-Lower St. Bernard-Northern Tangipahoa- Southern Tangipahoa-Wilkinson-Amite-Pike-Walthall-Pearl River- Hancock-Harrison-Jackson- Including the cities of Convent, Gonzales, Dexter, Chalmette, Covington, Buras, Cut Off, Belle Chasse, White Castle, East New Orleans, Gramercy, Bayou Cane, Amite, Pascagoula, Raceland, Wakefield, Gloster, Waveland, Easleyville, McComb, McNeil, Montpelier, Livonia, Darlington, Gillsberg, Gulfport, Jackson, Spillman, Greensburg, Liberty, Port Allen, Diamondhead, Roseland, Hammond, Metairie, Salem, Boothville, Galliano, Chauvin, Kenner, St. Francisville, Enon, St. Martin, Clinton, Labadieville, Dulac, Thibodaux, Yscloskey, Myrtle Grove, Mandeville, Prairieville, Violet, Dolorosa, Donaldsonville, Lutcher, Ocean Springs, Robert, Bogalusa, Larose, Poplarville, Tylertown, Centreville, Destrehan, Baton Rouge, New Roads, Lettsworth, Picayune, Paincourtville, Pointe A La Hache, Bay St. Louis, Leeville, Franklinton, Gautier, Slidell, Walker, Felps, Laplace, Woodville, Denham Springs, New Orleans, Montegut, Wilmer, Golden Meadow, Cocodrie, Venice, Lacombe, Plaquemine, Fort Adams, Brusly, Bayou Sorrel, Kentwood, Pierre Part, Watson, Houma, Addis, Smithdale, Moss Point, Ponchatoula, Crossroads, Norco, Reserve, Port Sulphur, and Empire 1237 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...
The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a
* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the following areas, in southeast Louisiana, Ascension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Lower Jefferson, Lower Lafourche, Lower Plaquemines, Lower St. Bernard, Lower Terrebonne, Northern Tangipahoa, Orleans, Pointe Coupee, Southern Tangipahoa, St. Charles, St. Helena, St. James, St. John The Baptist, St. Tammany, Upper Jefferson, Upper Lafourche, Upper Plaquemines, Upper St. Bernard, Upper Terrebonne, Washington, West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana. In Mississippi, Amite, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Pike, Walthall and Wilkinson.
* From Tuesday morning through Thursday evening
* Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Louisiana along with southern and coastal Mississippi. This could lead to flash flooding.
* Flooding of low lying and flood prone areas is possible with localized flash flooding.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not enter or cross flowing water or water of unknown depth.
Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become unstable and unsafe.
I'm picking my pirogue up now, according to this I won't be needing it after all, LMBO!
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 22, 2021 11:49:28 GMT -6
The VIPIR graphics animation with Bruce Katz a few minutes ago was not all that impressive to me. Yes it showed the stalled front but rain shield seemed small and moving. Dunno. Everything else points to a significant event and Bruce didn’t change the narrative. Never a fan of VIPIR anyway.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 22, 2021 11:59:49 GMT -6
Bruce just showed the VIPIR animation again. Much more realistic. I think the one 20 minutes ago was the wrong one? Anyway, he mentioned the FFW starting tomorrow.. And yes, the VIPIR looks nasty.
Last Edit: Mar 22, 2021 12:01:29 GMT -6 by grisairgasm
The VIPIR graphics animation with Bruce Katz a few minutes ago was not all that impressive to me. Yes it showed the stalled front but rain shield seemed small and moving. Dunno. Everything else points to a significant event and Bruce didn’t change the narrative. Never a fan of VIPIR anyway.
David Bernard is the worst.... He does a 5 minute weather segment and the thing you want to see most is the timing of rain during these types of events and he just lets the motion play out all the way through and says something like "and here it comes through New Orleans" and stops it 3 hours through. I have to rewind and slow play back to see Oh it's going to get here at 3:00 or whatever. He does it every time, so much so last night I decided I'm not watching him anymore. He does his forecast are more for entertaining at this point, becoming a Bob Breck. He used to be the best, but if you can't deliver the basics. It's pretty ridiculous that you can watch a five minute segment and not get the most important thing anymore.