Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 22, 2021 17:36:28 GMT -6
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
456 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will move off to the east of the area this evening.
A deep trough with an associated low pressure will move through
central Texas tonight. This will bring an end to the dry weather
as we work our way into Tuesday. Deep low will remain cutoff
slowly moving through the eastern Plains on Tuesday. This will
bring a slow moving cold front into the forecast zones. Front will
stall over the next several days with a slow moving warm front
setting up along the Gulf coast. Multiple impulses will ride
along the frontal boundary bringing heavy amounts of rainfall.
Flash Watch is now in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday
night. A strong 850 south...southwesterly jet will set up along
the boundary allowing for an unseasonably deep moisture layer to
bring PW values as high as 1.65+ through mid week. Rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inch inches are possible with this event. At
this time...it appears the heaviest rainfall will be along and south
of Lake Pontchartrain on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening as
the boundary sets up a warm front along the Gulf with slow
progression northward through Wednesday. A secondary upper level
low will kick out of the four corners region and into the eastern
Plains by Thursday while a surface low develops along the
northwestern Gulf. This will bring more heavy rainfall into the
area through Thursday evening. As far as severe weather...the
risks appears to be low at this point with the best potential
being along the warm frontal boundary. This low pressure system
will finally push a frontal boundary through the area on Thursday
evening ending the rainfall. A brief dry pattern with mild will
temperatures will set up on Friday as strong upper level ridging
builds in over the eastern gulf. Another shortwave will move in
from the west over the weekend bringing the next chance of showers
and storms on Saturday and Sunday.
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
456 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will move off to the east of the area this evening.
A deep trough with an associated low pressure will move through
central Texas tonight. This will bring an end to the dry weather
as we work our way into Tuesday. Deep low will remain cutoff
slowly moving through the eastern Plains on Tuesday. This will
bring a slow moving cold front into the forecast zones. Front will
stall over the next several days with a slow moving warm front
setting up along the Gulf coast. Multiple impulses will ride
along the frontal boundary bringing heavy amounts of rainfall.
Flash Watch is now in effect from Tuesday morning through Thursday
night. A strong 850 south...southwesterly jet will set up along
the boundary allowing for an unseasonably deep moisture layer to
bring PW values as high as 1.65+ through mid week. Rainfall
amounts of 5 to 10 inch inches are possible with this event. At
this time...it appears the heaviest rainfall will be along and south
of Lake Pontchartrain on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening as
the boundary sets up a warm front along the Gulf with slow
progression northward through Wednesday. A secondary upper level
low will kick out of the four corners region and into the eastern
Plains by Thursday while a surface low develops along the
northwestern Gulf. This will bring more heavy rainfall into the
area through Thursday evening. As far as severe weather...the
risks appears to be low at this point with the best potential
being along the warm frontal boundary. This low pressure system
will finally push a frontal boundary through the area on Thursday
evening ending the rainfall. A brief dry pattern with mild will
temperatures will set up on Friday as strong upper level ridging
builds in over the eastern gulf. Another shortwave will move in
from the west over the weekend bringing the next chance of showers
and storms on Saturday and Sunday.
