Apparently the top CIPS analog is 4/27/2011 and I remember that day well as I followed much of the TV coverage in Alabama while it was ongoing. I doubt we have a repeat of that but a high end outcome (a few violent tornadoes) is not out of the question today. FWIW, I remember the weather that day being a little clear yet to our north the disaster unfolding was just mind boggling. Prayers for our brothers and sisters in the mid-south today. May they all get timely information and find safety when they need it.
4/27/11......I will never forget watching ABC 33/40 with James Spann and Jason Simpson on the internet as that tornado went through Tuscaloosa. Watching it live as it happened and the feeling of what I was seeing happen was surreal. I hope to never see that today or any other day
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger instability develops into the warm advection zone.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Mar 25, 2021 9:16:32 GMT -6
We just had some huge raindrops fall here a few minutes ago. It was so loud that I had to get up and look outside my office to make sure it wasn't some marble sized hail! Sadly, it wasn't hail. I guess by the time I finally do get significant hail here, my ugly roof will be so old that the insurance company won't pay out for it anyway LOL! I cross my fingers every spring in hopes that I get some hail so I can get a cheap roof replacement!
There are already a lot of storms/rain up there. Those won’t help stabilize the atmosphere?
Normally it would but it’s already partly cloudy in parts of Mississippi and Alabama. Theses pre event storms are moving out quickly and the heating combined with extreme instability will reload and cock the atmosphere shortly.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 25, 2021 10:09:56 GMT -6
Any of these storms in our area need close attention. Even down here the atmosphere is juiced. They will be fast moving and hail and a tornado are certainly in the cards. Fortunately I think it will be very limited if it happens though. To me this is the type of day that can provide some quick surprising severe stuff.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 25, 2021 10:15:40 GMT -6
Taking a look at central and N Mississippi satellite, there are still some high fast moving cirrus and a lack of convection. I bet this will be one of those explosive situations where there is a blank radar then a severe tornado storm 30 minutes later. Happens all the time along those W Texas dry line tornado watches. They just come out of nowhere.
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 25, 2021 10:31:54 GMT -6
One of my lifetime observations is wind and it’s relationship to severe weather. On a very basic scale, strong winds off the Gulf headed to severe areas well N of us into Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee sometimes means a lack of widespread severe here. The energy is simply headed to the instability and lower pressures. Not always but as a general rule I see this. The wind here in SE LA has certainly not picked up as forecast just yet. Makes me pay attention a bit more so far today. Dr. Postel just mentioned a PDS for the now posted Tornado Watches on TWChannel.