TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread

Any chance the ridge goes away sooner than later and the whole thing curves out to sea?

The new 12 z GFS model is locked on Florida none of the models are showing they're coming this way so I think it's very safe to say that it's not coming this way.imo 📰👍

It ain’t over till it’s over.

History has taught us time and time again (and again) that models this far out are wrong - very wrong - 99% of the time. Elsa could hit Bermuda just as easily as she could hit Brownsville at this point. Be patient and watch the models, you'll see them shift one way or another pretty drastically by the time landfall occurs.

12Z GEFS Ensemble guidance. A tad shift south by many members.

Again, goes to show that there's still quite a bit of spread by next Tuesday. A system in the strait between the Yucatan & Cuba or a system in the Bahamas is a spread of 600+ miles. 

Certainly too early to write off the system for the Gulf of Mexico, especially until we get recon data & see how the system favors in the Eastern Caribbean.

true.... but hes putting out great info behind his prediction....He might be bold, but with me still learning the science behind weather I am learning.......His post with the graphics breaking down the steering currents was cool....Even though we might be looking at a storm on our doorstep next week in SE LA, I see no wrong in him sharing his bold predictions amongst a group of weather nerds😊