TROPICAL STORM ELSA Discussion Thread

Yes, I feel safe saying Elsa will a Florida storm.  Models are in agreement and all guidance keeps it far to the east of Louisiana. 

I mean anything can happen in weather, but it would require epic fails by all our modern resources for this storm to go that far west. 

The other years on the list were near-average on named storms but well above-normal on total seasonal ACE. That means the storms were quite strong for the season.

1961 had 5 major hurricanes.

Unfortunately, it's something about being able to generate a hurricane in this area early in the season that hints to a storm filled year.

Yes! I never felt we were ever in danger.

Man I was not ragging u last night.....a bit tired. Just want people here to look at what this season is more than likely going to do. It’s jaw dropping to me already.

It's never over until it's over but the probably of Elsa going some where besides Florida has got to be getting slimmer and slimmer.

Interesting snippet in the NHC 4pm discussion.

"The new forecast track is changed little from the previous advisory, and it lies near the
center of the now reasonably-agreeing track guidance envelope."

Well, assuming it goes to FLA, the NHC nailed another one. At least there's some comfort in what is going to be a nail biter [and tequila shooting] season.