Hard to believe that disturbance will be coming out of way down in southern MX/EPAC instead of all of the convection over the eastern GOM, but when the GFS and Euro agree on a solution I don't doubt it. We will have to watch the trends if they get closer to LA.
Post by hurricaner on Sept 10, 2021 18:00:02 GMT -6
Now up to 60/80%.
The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Last Edit: Sept 10, 2021 18:01:17 GMT -6 by hurricaner