HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT
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Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:21:59 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:21:59 GMT -6

Sept 13, 2021 12:04:22 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

How big of a tornado threat will we have?

Doesn't seem like the SPC is highlighting much of a risk, but being in the right front quadrant, at least a minimal threat exists.

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,379	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:24:09 GMT -6 via mobile julieo - Thibodaux likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 13, 2021 12:24:09 GMT -6 Just praying that Terrebonne/Lafourche doesn’t get flooding rains. A bit concerned
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:34:10 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:34:10 GMT -6 A plot of the GFS:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:40:03 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:40:03 GMT -6 While the NAVGEM is usually not a good model in the tropics, it does have Nicholas staying offshore somehow and not making a landfall until Cameron Parish.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

weatherboyy Category 5 Posts: 2,413	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:41:41 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by weatherboyy on Sept 13, 2021 12:41:41 GMT -6 HRRR
	weather geeks i don't really talk much I post image

cms102076 Category 1 Posts: 119	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:43:37 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cms102076 on Sept 13, 2021 12:43:37 GMT -6 I am surprised they have not issued Flash Flood Watches yet for Southeast Louisiana ..
	Last Edit: Sept 13, 2021 12:51:55 GMT -6 by cms102076

prairievilledog
Category 3

Posts: 773

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:46:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 13, 2021 12:46:55 GMT -6

Flood Watches will be issued in the afternoon update about 4 or 5pm, guaranteed. With the latest high resolution models showing a great risk of flooding rains, its a given they will probably be issued covering all of SELA.

flora... Covington, near CHS
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:47:33 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 13, 2021 12:47:33 GMT -6

This is just not good. I’m sure many are in a similar situation like me, with a half ass tarp on the roof while waiting for the official Blue Roof and praying we did a good enough job to keep torrential rains out.

In Ponchatoula, where I work, hardly any of the tree debris has been picked up and it’s all blocking the drainage ditches.

Just not good. 😠

Covington... near CHS

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:51:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:51:09 GMT -6 25kts of westerly shear is doing its job. Could be good news for Texas but bad news for Louisiana.
	Last Edit: Sept 13, 2021 12:51:54 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

TalonII
Category 2

Posts: 419

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:51:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by TalonII on Sept 13, 2021 12:51:44 GMT -6

Sept 13, 2021 12:47:33 GMT -6 flora... Covington, near CHS said:

This is just not good. I’m sure many are in a similar situation like me, with a half ass tarp on the roof while waiting for the official Blue Roof and praying we did a good enough job to keep torrential rains out.

In Ponchatoula, where I work, hardly any of the tree debris has been picked up and it’s all blocking the drainage ditches.

Just not good. 😠

I'm here in LC looking at the building next to my office with what is left of its tarp from a year ago and can see sun shining through a window.

Looks like they will be getting the squeegee out again.

PWS - www.wunderground.com/weather/us/la/iowa/KLAIOWA11

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,379

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:58:07 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by cajungal on Sept 13, 2021 12:58:07 GMT -6

Sept 13, 2021 12:47:33 GMT -6 flora... Covington, near CHS said:

This is just not good. I’m sure many are in a similar situation like me, with a half ass tarp on the roof while waiting for the official Blue Roof and praying we did a good enough job to keep torrential rains out.

In Ponchatoula, where I work, hardly any of the tree debris has been picked up and it’s all blocking the drainage ditches.

Just not good. 😠

Same here in Thibodaux. Almost everyone on our street except for a select few had significant roof damage and are tarped.

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring Category 4 Posts: 959	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 12:58:43 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring on Sept 13, 2021 12:58:43 GMT -6 South Texas radar appears to indicate the storm moving east of the NHC track currently.

roz
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HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 13:02:59 GMT -6 TalonII likes this

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Post by roz on Sept 13, 2021 13:02:59 GMT -6

Sept 13, 2021 12:58:43 GMT -6 philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring said:

South Texas radar appears to indicate the storm moving east of the NHC track currently.

Yep, it's staying on the eastern edge of the cone. You can zoom in and animate this one, along with the NHC track. zoom.earth/storms/nicholas-2021/

nolachic GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,252	HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 13:09:31 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolachic on Sept 13, 2021 13:09:31 GMT -6 Between the westerly sheer and it slowly running out of real estate, I’m guessing that lessens the likelihood of a Cat 1 at landfall?
	Thou shall not utter her name

VERticalnoGO
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Posts: 557

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread Sept 13, 2021 13:13:44 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by VERticalnoGO on Sept 13, 2021 13:13:44 GMT -6

Sept 13, 2021 12:51:09 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

25kts of westerly shear is doing its job. Could be good news for Texas but bad news for Louisiana.

Geez. That shift is scaring the heck out of me as I sit in carline on the Lakefront if Mandeville. Lakeshore Dr and all of Old Mandeville is literally a disaster.

"The Hilton was a HOT commodity"

HURRICANE NICHOLAS - Continuing Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:21:59 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 13, 2021 12:24:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:34:10 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:40:03 GMT -6

Post by weatherboyy on Sept 13, 2021 12:41:41 GMT -6

Post by cms102076 on Sept 13, 2021 12:43:37 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 13, 2021 12:46:55 GMT -6

Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 13, 2021 12:47:33 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 13, 2021 12:51:09 GMT -6

Post by TalonII on Sept 13, 2021 12:51:44 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 13, 2021 12:58:07 GMT -6

Post by philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring on Sept 13, 2021 12:58:43 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 13, 2021 13:02:59 GMT -6

Post by nolachic on Sept 13, 2021 13:09:31 GMT -6

Post by VERticalnoGO on Sept 13, 2021 13:13:44 GMT -6

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