We need to all be pulling for 95L to be a beast in the Atlantic. If she is, out to sea she'll go. If not, she'll run with the shallow steering layer and continue west. So far intensity guidance is somewhat on our side.
Latest discussion says it’s less organized now, but will eventually get its act together. It doesn’t look like it’s going to be a beast anytime soon. 😩
Does it look more likely than not that this monster to be will head out to sea and not bother us or is there a chance it could wind up in the GOM?
All I can tell you is what the GFS is showing and it has consistently been taking it out to sea; on the last run, waaaaaaaay out to sea. I will say that the critical moment APPEARS to be Monday when it really begins its journey to up,up, and away. If it's still heading quite westerly at that point, then..........well we shall see.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
But what about the TUTT? Could it actually work in this storm’s possible development vs shearing it apart?
Acronym Alert! What does TUTT stand for? And while you're at it, what does BOC refer to? That one has been driving me crazy. My only guess is Bottom of Carribean??
Total severe weather nerd, starting with Hurricane Andrew! Follow me on Instagram @themagicalredhead. Please note that any excitement or disappointment displayed regarding severe weather events is strictly about experiencing the event itself from a meteorological standpoint (not the potential negative impacts to life and property).
Post by nolachic1st on Sept 16, 2021 17:15:41 GMT -6
TUTT = Tropical upper tropospheric trough. A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), also known as the mid-oceanic trough, is a trough situated in the upper-level (at about 200 hPa) tropics. Its formation is usually caused by the intrusion of energy and wind from the mid-latitudes into the tropics. It can also develop from the inverted trough adjacent to an upper level anticyclone. TUTTs are different from mid-latitude troughs in the sense that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. When strong, they can present a significant vertical wind shear to the tropics and subdue tropical cyclogenesis. When upper cold lows break off from their base, they tend to retrograde and force the development of, or enhance, surface troughs and tropical waves to their east. Under special circumstances, they can induce thunderstorm activity and lead to the formation of tropical cyclones.
BOC = Bay of Campeche, also called Gulf of Campeche, Spanish Bahía de Campeche, bay of the Gulf of Mexico, southern Mexico. It is bounded by the Yucatán Peninsula to the east, by the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to the south, and by southern Veracruz to the west.
So, I will come clean on this - I knew Bay of Campeche but not a clue on TUTT. Learn something new everyday! LOL!