TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER - Discussion Thread

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1100 miles
east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 1000
miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later today or tomorrow while the system moves toward the
west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be near
the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and interests
there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Upper-level
winds are likely to become less conducive for development when the
system reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part
of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 650 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward
Islands continue to show signs of organization. However,
satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicated that the
system does not yet have a well-defined surface circulation. Only
a slight increase in organization of this system would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm, which is
expected to occur later today or tonight while the low moves toward
the west-northwest at about 15 mph. This system is expected to be
near the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, and
interests there should monitor its progress. Upper-level winds are
likely to become less conducive for development when the system
reaches the southwestern Atlantic by the early to middle part of
next week. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

We now have TD #16.


Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021


...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...



SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 53.1W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

The center of TS Peter is relocated south and west.


Tropical Storm Peter Special Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021


...CENTER OF PETER FOUND FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...
...STILL EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...



SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 56.0W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

What a blessing! I have been following this thread with bated breath. Thank you for this update.