Cancelled our Memorial Day weekend camping trip to save money. but hoping for no storms. Too early for this crap and still haven’t started in home repairs other then the roof
We'll be in Sopchoppy, FL for our honeymoon. The good thing there though is we're away from the beach so we're going regardless.
We are going to Daytona beach mid June. We were going to camp same campground in Berwick Memorial Day weekend. But then it is just too close to other trip. And realized it just won’t be in the budget that close.
The 12Z GFS is still showing a system developing in the NW Caribbean now about day 9 (so it is not moving back in time). It then takes the system into the central GOM by day 14 as a hurricane (968mb).
Im very skeptical of such a solution. It strengthens too fast, which allows it to push the shear back and get strong. I very much doubt something forming off the Gyre could get together that fast.
Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out
Last Edit: May 12, 2022 13:57:52 GMT -6 by cajungal
Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out
Bingo! I posted it because I think it’s very interesting and I’m intrigued right now because of how early it is. Nothing is even formed yet so this is still only the GFS’s imagination.
Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out
Bingo! I posted it because I think it’s very interesting and I’m intrigued right now because of how early it is. Nothing is even formed yet so this is still only the GFS’s imagination.
Just remember this is the 6th run in a row something has developed on about the same day. Now how strong it becomes and where it goes has changed on every run.
Post by rebekahb-Metairie on May 12, 2022 17:05:16 GMT -6
If these storms keep targeting our areas I don’t even want to know what my homeowner’s policy will creep up to. We really need a break and like everyone else I can’t believe we’re watching this in the middle of May. Hoping it’s a bust.
Post by hurricaner on May 12, 2022 17:06:35 GMT -6
Well the 18Z GFS develops the system again around day 9 and this time takes it north over Cuba and then once it is off the SW Florida coast and turns WNW and then west. By May 26th we have a hurricane (960mb) moving slowly west over central GOM. Waiting to see where it ends up at the end of the run.
Well the 18Z GFS develops the system again around day 9 and this time takes it north over Cuba and then once it is off the SW Florida coast and turns WNW and then west. By May 26th we have a hurricane (960mb) moving slowly west over central GOM. Waiting to see where it ends up at the end of the run.
The NOLA (or as they like to refer to themselves, “SELA” ) core of this board’s posters are about to go into full-blown panic mode.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6
I have major doubts a hurricane - if one forms at all - reaches 950mb in May. I have a feeling the gfs is seeing the departure from normal SST’s and using that to justify such deepening. First of all, “warmer than normal” does NOT equate to August SSTs. It just means the surface is around late Juneish, which still very likely won’t result in that kind of strengthening and organization. Secondly, I doubt those warmer than normal temps are very deep.
Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:20:33 GMT -6
Gulfport landfall of a 2/3 hurricane on this run. One thing is for sure… this sure is interesting to watch in the month of May. It’s not going to happen. If it DOES happen, and the gulf coast gets slammed with a category 3 hurricane in May, I may actually start believing in global warming.
Spoiler alert: I don’t and never will. It’s a cycle, the earth breathes in and breathes out. That’s a whole other topic for another thread in another board, though.