2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 5,099

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 12:12:46 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on May 12, 2022 12:12:46 GMT -6

May 12, 2022 12:10:47 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

May 12, 2022 12:09:46 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Cancelled our Memorial Day weekend camping trip to save money.

but hoping for no storms. Too early for this crap and still haven’t started in home repairs other then the roof

We'll be in Sopchoppy, FL for our honeymoon. The good thing there though is we're away from the beach so we're going regardless.

We are going to Daytona beach mid June. We were going to camp same campground in Berwick Memorial Day weekend. But then it is just too close to other trip. And realized it just won’t be in the budget that close.

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

thermalwind - Touro
Meteorology Student

Posts: 1,407

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 13:15:29 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by thermalwind - Touro on May 12, 2022 13:15:29 GMT -6

May 12, 2022 11:09:14 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

The 12Z GFS is still showing a system developing in the NW Caribbean now about day 9 (so it is not moving back in time). It then takes the system into the central GOM by day 14 as a hurricane (968mb).

View Attachment

Im very skeptical of such a solution. It strengthens too fast, which allows it to push the shear back and get strong. I very much doubt something forming off the Gyre could get together that fast.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 2,775	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 13:41:55 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 13:41:55 GMT -6 Did Audrey develop off the gyre back in 1957 (or whatever year that was)?

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,618	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 13:57:17 GMT -6 via mobile trueblue, bunkie68 - WBR Parish, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on May 12, 2022 13:57:17 GMT -6 The fact that we are discussing a possible cat 2 -3 storm already is absurd

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,099	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 13:57:34 GMT -6 via mobile bunkie68 - WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on May 12, 2022 13:57:34 GMT -6 Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out
	Last Edit: May 12, 2022 13:57:52 GMT -6 by cajungal 60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 2,775

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 14:00:10 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal likes this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 14:00:10 GMT -6

May 12, 2022 13:57:34 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out

Bingo! I posted it because I think it’s very interesting and I’m intrigued right now because of how early it is. Nothing is even formed yet so this is still only the GFS’s imagination.

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,618	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 14:16:26 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on May 12, 2022 14:16:26 GMT -6 Absolutely nothing to worry about right now.....But already discussing model predictions of a storm this strong, this early is ridiculous.

hurricaner
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 14:33:34 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on May 12, 2022 14:33:34 GMT -6

May 12, 2022 14:00:10 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

May 12, 2022 13:57:34 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Just not going to get worried yet as it is only May. Nothing has formed yet and it will prob be gone next run or showing something different. And it is almost 2 weeks out

Bingo! I posted it because I think it’s very interesting and I’m intrigued right now because of how early it is. Nothing is even formed yet so this is still only the GFS’s imagination.

Just remember this is the 6th run in a row something has developed on about the same day. Now how strong it becomes and where it goes has changed on every run.

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rebekahb-Metairie
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Posts: 136

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:05:16 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by rebekahb-Metairie on May 12, 2022 17:05:16 GMT -6

If these storms keep targeting our areas I don’t even want to know what my homeowner’s policy will creep up to. We really need a break and like everyone else I can’t believe we’re watching this in the middle of May. Hoping it’s a bust.

hurricaner
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:06:35 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on May 12, 2022 17:06:35 GMT -6

Well the 18Z GFS develops the system again around day 9 and this time takes it north over Cuba and then once it is off the SW Florida coast and turns WNW and then west. By May 26th we have a hurricane (960mb) moving slowly west over central GOM. Waiting to see where it ends up at the end of the run.

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Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 2,775

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:13:21 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:13:21 GMT -6

May 12, 2022 17:06:35 GMT -6 hurricaner said:

The NOLA (or as they like to refer to themselves, “SELA”

) core of this board’s posters are about to go into full-blown panic mode.

Last Edit: May 12, 2022 17:26:13 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,419	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:14:22 GMT -6 via mobile bunkie68 - WBR Parish, fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on May 12, 2022 17:14:22 GMT -6 A 952 mb storm in MAY?? Gfs is on crack.
	Blowin' harp!

Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 2,775

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6 via mobile TalonII and philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring like this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6

I have major doubts a hurricane - if one forms at all - reaches 950mb in May. I have a feeling the gfs is seeing the departure from normal SST’s and using that to justify such deepening. First of all, “warmer than normal” does NOT equate to August SSTs. It just means the surface is around late Juneish, which still very likely won’t result in that kind of strengthening and organization. Secondly, I doubt those warmer than normal temps are very deep.

Last Edit: May 12, 2022 17:17:50 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 2,775

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:20:33 GMT -6 via mobile harpman, TalonII, and 1 more like this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:20:33 GMT -6

Gulfport landfall of a 2/3 hurricane on this run. One thing is for sure… this sure is interesting to watch in the month of May. It’s not going to happen. If it DOES happen, and the gulf coast gets slammed with a category 3 hurricane in May, I may actually start believing in global warming.

Spoiler alert: I don’t and never will. It’s a cycle, the earth breathes in and breathes out. That’s a whole other topic for another thread in another board, though.

Last Edit: May 12, 2022 17:21:36 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

lilspud GCWX Supporter Posts: 572	2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion May 12, 2022 17:22:15 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lilspud on May 12, 2022 17:22:15 GMT -6 So lets go ahead and forget about this GFS run and hope for it to disappear tonight.

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Open Discussion

Post by cajungal on May 12, 2022 12:12:46 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on May 12, 2022 13:15:29 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 13:41:55 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on May 12, 2022 13:57:17 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on May 12, 2022 13:57:34 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 14:00:10 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on May 12, 2022 14:16:26 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on May 12, 2022 14:33:34 GMT -6

Post by rebekahb-Metairie on May 12, 2022 17:05:16 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on May 12, 2022 17:06:35 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:13:21 GMT -6

Post by harpman on May 12, 2022 17:14:22 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:15:11 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on May 12, 2022 17:20:33 GMT -6

Post by lilspud on May 12, 2022 17:22:15 GMT -6

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