Spring / Summer 2022 Daily Weather General Discussion Thread

Interesting little tidbit about the weekend's arctic blast. I really wish I could have been alive for the superstorm of 93. It would been amazing to see.



LONG TERM...Models continue to be in remarkable agreement in the

extended with the very cold airmass this weekend and then the quick

moderation of it. Next system looks to impact the area around

Tuesday. Overall the NBM looks good but the deterministic values are

on the high end of all the guidance for Sunday morning. It is even

at or abv the 75th percentile. With that we have gone a tad below

the NBM for Sunday morning lows and that would mean numerous records

are within reach.



The interesting note about Sunday is it is the 29th anniversary of

the 93 Superstorm. That was the last time many of our sites were as

cold as we are currently forecasting. The L/W trough on Saturday

will be in phase from the Gulf north through the Arctic Circle. This

is quite impressive and it will help to drive a quick hitting Arctic

airmass into the area. This airmass is originating from north of

Alaska in the Arctic Ocean and will work down the Lee side of the

Rockies from Alaska down through Canada and into the central US. The

bulk of the cold air will actually slide to the northeast but given

how strong this airmass will be it will still drive into the Gulf on

Saturday. LL temps will plummet with h925 temps down to

-4C and h85 down to 0 to -2C by 12z Saturday. After that the LL

temps look to slowly warm up and this is the only concern we have

with seeing the possible record cold Sunday morning. Everything else

will be pristine for a radiational cooling night.



High pressure directly overhead..........check

Very dry LL conditions/dewpoints.....check

Light winds at the sfc and through the LL...check

Clear skies................................check



Upper jet should be exiting the region and with that cirrus should

be as well. Both the GFES and ECS means are indicting temps 25-27

degrees below normal and the NBM is indicating 40-90% probability of

tying or breaking record lows for a good chunk of the area. So what

is the concern, again it is those LL temps which indicate possible

WAA in the LL late Saturday and overnight. This can impact

radiational cooling some but given that the WAA looks weak at this

time not anticipating that much of a impact right now and will

forecast record lows at most locations. MSY is about the only

climate site that doesn`t look like it has a legitimate shot of

breaking its record however, we are forecasting the coldest March

13th day since the 93 Superstorm when MSY hit 35 that day.



Even if lows don`t drop as cold as we are forecasting they will

still be chilly with at least the northern half of CWA likely below

freezing.

I don't really see me hitting 64 today...I'm just up to 53 right now....we don't get back into the warm air until tomorrow.

Satellite is teasing sun, but can't tell who will get it today....

Looks like Randy might have a shot at a few flakes Saturday wee hours.....

Only managed 57 today..didn't get enough sun to get any warmer.

Enjoying it while it lasts

NWS Mobile survey on the Mobile County tornado

My forecasted low on Saturday night according to the NWS will be 31F with northerly winds of 10-20mph.


Current conditions at:
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi (KBIX)
Lat: 30.42°N Lon: 88.92°W Elev: 33ft.
Overcast👈
51°F👈
11°C
Humidity 88%👈
Wind Speed E 7 mph👈
Barometer 29.96 in (1014.9 mb)
Dewpoint 47°F (8°C)👈
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 48°F (9°C)👈
Last update 9 Mar 8:56 pm CST


bigstevo29 😎🇺🇦
Biloxi, MS
03/09/22