Interesting little tidbit about the weekend's arctic blast. I really wish I could have been alive for the superstorm of 93. It would been amazing to see.
LONG TERM...Models continue to be in remarkable agreement in the
extended with the very cold airmass this weekend and then the quick
moderation of it. Next system looks to impact the area around
Tuesday. Overall the NBM looks good but the deterministic values are
on the high end of all the guidance for Sunday morning. It is even
at or abv the 75th percentile. With that we have gone a tad below
the NBM for Sunday morning lows and that would mean numerous records
are within reach.
The interesting note about Sunday is it is the 29th anniversary of
the 93 Superstorm. That was the last time many of our sites were as
cold as we are currently forecasting. The L/W trough on Saturday
will be in phase from the Gulf north through the Arctic Circle. This
is quite impressive and it will help to drive a quick hitting Arctic
airmass into the area. This airmass is originating from north of
Alaska in the Arctic Ocean and will work down the Lee side of the
Rockies from Alaska down through Canada and into the central US. The
bulk of the cold air will actually slide to the northeast but given
how strong this airmass will be it will still drive into the Gulf on
Saturday. LL temps will plummet with h925 temps down to
-4C and h85 down to 0 to -2C by 12z Saturday. After that the LL
temps look to slowly warm up and this is the only concern we have
with seeing the possible record cold Sunday morning. Everything else
will be pristine for a radiational cooling night.
High pressure directly overhead..........check
Very dry LL conditions/dewpoints.....check
Light winds at the sfc and through the LL...check
Clear skies................................check
Upper jet should be exiting the region and with that cirrus should
be as well. Both the GFES and ECS means are indicting temps 25-27
degrees below normal and the NBM is indicating 40-90% probability of
tying or breaking record lows for a good chunk of the area. So what
is the concern, again it is those LL temps which indicate possible
WAA in the LL late Saturday and overnight. This can impact
radiational cooling some but given that the WAA looks weak at this
time not anticipating that much of a impact right now and will
forecast record lows at most locations. MSY is about the only
climate site that doesn`t look like it has a legitimate shot of
breaking its record however, we are forecasting the coldest March
13th day since the 93 Superstorm when MSY hit 35 that day.
Even if lows don`t drop as cold as we are forecasting they will
still be chilly with at least the northern half of CWA likely below
Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 9, 2022 15:28:02 GMT -6
Some clearer skies headed NE...might break 60 after all.
Now as far as the freeze for Sunday morning......bad news my 4 newly planted fruit trees already are sending out new growth...the good news is they are small enough I will at least attempt to cover them to limit the damage
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
