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Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm and darius Bogalusa like this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 11:01:52 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Mar 21, 2022 10:53:14 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

Well I'm kind of worried...Being that I'm located approximately 30 miles north of I12....Definitely located in the moderate zone of severe weather....Usually we are just far south enough to still get some protection from the cool gulf waters, while more severe weather forms just north of here....Hopefully this will be the case...But to have a 4/5 threat is very rare....its hard for me to believe that in an area where such a high threat is forecasted that we will not have some supercells to form in front of the main squall line...But I'm still learning patterns and trends when it comes to severe weather...So we shall see

If I lived N of I12 I would have a place to go for a few hours or build / fortify a part of my dwelling or property. It’s just a matter of time until that area gets a nasty tornado. Sorry I sound a little
pessimistic today but I don’t trust the weather anymore. And these SE tornados have no problem showing up in the middle of the night.

Though I am glad not to live in a tornado prone area, having a basement would give me some peace of mind.

I wonder how far from SELA basements become a thing......

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts - 5,165 Likes - 4,604	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:12:52 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:12:52 GMT -6 Looks like E Tx just got upgraded to “moderate” on the severe graph. Think it was “enhanced “ earlier. Don’t like that.

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts - 5,165 Likes - 4,604	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6 Jess23 and rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6 Looks like E Tx just got upgraded to “moderate” on the severe graph. Think it was “enhanced “ earlier. Don’t like that. Double post. Sorry.
	Last Edit: Mar 21, 2022 11:14:09 GMT -6 by grisairgasm

rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:15:48 GMT -6 Jess23 and grisairgasm like this

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Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Mar 21, 2022 11:15:48 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Looks like E Tx just got upgraded to “moderate” on the severe graph. Think it was “enhanced “ earlier. Don’t like that.

Double post. Sorry.

Yep. Their discussion earlier this morning mentioned the possibility of an upgrade. Looks like they went with it.

Last Edit: Mar 21, 2022 11:22:10 GMT -6 by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish

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grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts - 5,165 Likes - 4,604	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:17:11 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:17:11 GMT -6 Couple of individual cells popping off. In Tx now.

cajungal
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:33:20 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm likes this

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Post by cajungal on Mar 21, 2022 11:33:20 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Looks like E Tx just got upgraded to “moderate” on the severe graph. Think it was “enhanced “ earlier. Don’t like that.

Double post. Sorry.

Hubby just arrived in Houston for work for a week. Praying it doesn’t get too bad for him there. I will be a nervous wreck being by myself with the kids if it gets bad here too. At least no more tarp on our roof. I remember in 2015, I was home alone with my son who was only 8 months old at the time. And having to hunker in the hallway. As I was positive a tornado was fixing to hit us as we got 60 miles per hour winds and it looked like midnight at only 9 a.m. and tornado did hit only a couple miles away,

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

mobileweatherwatcher
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 11:35:23 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm and rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish like this

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Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Mar 21, 2022 11:35:23 GMT -6

Looks like little to no change on the new Day 2. If anything, maybe the moderate pulled a tad further north in central Mississippi

ju
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:01:53 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 and grisairgasm like this

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Post by ju on Mar 21, 2022 12:01:53 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 said:

Mar 21, 2022 11:01:52 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

If I lived N of I12 I would have a place to go for a few hours or build / fortify a part of my dwelling or property. It’s just a matter of time until that area gets a nasty tornado. Sorry I sound a little
pessimistic today but I don’t trust the weather anymore. And these SE tornados have no problem showing up in the middle of the night.

Though I am glad not to live in a tornado prone area, having a basement would give me some peace of mind.

I wonder how far from SELA basements become a thing......

My husband's grandparents had a basement here in Thibodaux. Think I'm remembering correctly that what they did was have the foundation built higher than normal and built a room and then the house on top of that. As you know, with such a high water table, what most people think of as a basement would be hard to maintain. Tim said that he and his family spent Hurricane Betsy in that basement.

Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:16:57 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this

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Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 12:16:57 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 12:01:53 GMT -6 ju said:

Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 said:

Though I am glad not to live in a tornado prone area, having a basement would give me some peace of mind.

I wonder how far from SELA basements become a thing......

My husband's grandparents had a basement here in Thibodaux. Think I'm remembering correctly that what they did was have the foundation built higher than normal and built a room and then the house on top of that. As you know, with such a high water table, what most people think of as a basement would be hard to maintain. Tim said that he and his family spent Hurricane Betsy in that basement.

It could definitely be done on the northshore...it's just not part of the building culture here....kind of like dealerships sell cars up north with no AC (or they used to....).

lightningstruck-Bogalusa
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:40:36 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa likes this

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Post by lightningstruck-Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 12:40:36 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 10:53:14 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

Well I'm kind of worried...Being that I'm located approximately 30 miles north of I12....Definitely located in the moderate zone of severe weather....Usually we are just far south enough to still get some protection from the cool gulf waters, while more severe weather forms just north of here....Hopefully this will be the case...But to have a 4/5 threat is very rare....its hard for me to believe that in an area where such a high threat is forecasted that we will not have some supercells to form in front of the main squall line...But I'm still learning patterns and trends when it comes to severe weather...So we shall see

We have been lucky, most of the storms that turn severe do so right over us and then drop tornadoes right to our north. Sadly it seems to me that most people here in Bog don't even keep up with what is happening when it comes to severe weather.

Sometimes I wonder who I was
before the lightning struck and I was no more.

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philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:42:32 GMT -6

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Post by philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring on Mar 21, 2022 12:42:32 GMT -6

A wind advisory has now been issued for all areas of SELA and southern MS, with the advisory issued by LIX corresponding with surrounding weather forecast offices. The advisory is for 9 AM to 9 PM.

Edit: the advisory is for Tuesday, 9 AM to 9 PM

Last Edit: Mar 21, 2022 13:29:15 GMT -6 by philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring

darius Bogalusa
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:51:06 GMT -6 via mobile lightningstruck-Bogalusa and rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish like this

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 12:51:06 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 12:40:36 GMT -6 lightningstruck-Bogalusa said:

Mar 21, 2022 10:53:14 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

Well I'm kind of worried...Being that I'm located approximately 30 miles north of I12....Definitely located in the moderate zone of severe weather....Usually we are just far south enough to still get some protection from the cool gulf waters, while more severe weather forms just north of here....Hopefully this will be the case...But to have a 4/5 threat is very rare....its hard for me to believe that in an area where such a high threat is forecasted that we will not have some supercells to form in front of the main squall line...But I'm still learning patterns and trends when it comes to severe weather...So we shall see

We have been lucky, most of the storms that turn severe do so right over us and then drop tornadoes right to our north. Sadly it seems to me that most people here in Bog don't even keep up with what is happening when it comes to severe weather.

Not a clue to what's going on, until they cancel schools😂

bstelly23
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 12:53:11 GMT -6 via mobile Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 and darius Bogalusa like this

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Post by bstelly23 on Mar 21, 2022 12:53:11 GMT -6

Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6 Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 said:

Mar 21, 2022 11:01:52 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

If I lived N of I12 I would have a place to go for a few hours or build / fortify a part of my dwelling or property. It’s just a matter of time until that area gets a nasty tornado. Sorry I sound a little
pessimistic today but I don’t trust the weather anymore. And these SE tornados have no problem showing up in the middle of the night.

Though I am glad not to live in a tornado prone area, having a basement would give me some peace of mind.

I wonder how far from SELA basements become a thing......

You start finding a bunch of homes north of the state line that have them. Our biggest deterrent for basements down here in the metro area is our soil. The best place for basements in our area would probably be the northern parts of the Northshore.

lightningstruck-Bogalusa GCWX Supporter Posts - 549 Likes - 95	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 13:12:07 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lightningstruck-Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 13:12:07 GMT -6 Anyone know anything about storm shutters? Mine won't roll down. I made a post in Anything Goes to not take up space on this thread. Any ideas/help will be appreciated
	Sometimes I wonder who I was before the lightning struck and I was no more. NWS Skywarn Storm Spotter

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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 21, 2022 13:46:15 GMT -6 Jess23 likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 21, 2022 13:46:15 GMT -6

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Areas affected...Central/East TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211923Z - 212130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Conditions are becoming more favorable for supercell
thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large
hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a strong (i.e. 50-55 kt at
850 mb) low-level jet throughout much of the warm sector. This
mesoanalysis is verified by area 18Z soundings, with CRP and FWD
sampling 55 kt and 65 kt at 850 mb, respectively. Some convective
contamination may have contributed to the stronger winds at FWD, but
the general expectation is for these strong winds to persist
throughout the warm sector this afternoon and evening.

At the same time, strong moisture advection is contributing to air
mass destabilization. Dewpoints increases around 4 deg F have
occurred over the last 3 hours throughout much of central and
eastern TX, with dewpoints now ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s in
the AUS/CLL vicinity to low 60s across much of the Metroplex. Recent
mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded across much of central TX.
This is verified by a recent special sounding from St. Edwards
University in Austin, which sampled limited convective inhibition
remaining. Recent 18Z sounding from Texas A&M shows a bit more
convective inhibition remaining.

The improving thermodynamics, supercell wind profiles and gradually
strengthening ascent all suggest the potential for discrete
supercells capable of all severe hazards this afternoon, including
very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.
Convective interference may limit the duration of any one discrete
cell, but the environmental conditions do support potentially
long-lived updrafts and intense supercells, particularly over
central TX/TX Hill Country. A Tornado Watch will be needed this
afternoon to cover this severe potential.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/21/2022

Hammond, LA
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 11:11:38 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:12:52 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6

Post by rnj79: Addis, WBR Parish on Mar 21, 2022 11:15:48 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Mar 21, 2022 11:17:11 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Mar 21, 2022 11:33:20 GMT -6

Post by mobileweatherwatcher on Mar 21, 2022 11:35:23 GMT -6

Post by ju on Mar 21, 2022 12:01:53 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 21, 2022 12:16:57 GMT -6

Post by lightningstruck-Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 12:40:36 GMT -6

Post by philstorm91 - Greenwell Spring on Mar 21, 2022 12:42:32 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 12:51:06 GMT -6

Post by bstelly23 on Mar 21, 2022 12:53:11 GMT -6

Post by lightningstruck-Bogalusa on Mar 21, 2022 13:12:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 21, 2022 13:46:15 GMT -6

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