SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 5:18:43 GMT -6

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Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 20, 2022 5:18:43 GMT -6

Here is our, what seems like weekly, separate thread for the severe storm risk, for Tuesday, March 22.
As of this Sunday morning, a moderate risk has already been issued, to a good part of our membership area, with the lesser enhanced and slight risks, covering all the central gulf coast.

Last Edit: Mar 21, 2022 19:19:14 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLACOVIN110

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,618	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 5:54:25 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 20, 2022 5:54:25 GMT -6 A Moderate risk?!?!?!....
	Last Edit: Mar 20, 2022 5:55:42 GMT -6 by darius Bogalusa

NavyMom: WBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,363	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 6:19:32 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Mar 20, 2022 6:19:32 GMT -6 But wait, there’s more! 👀👀
	“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.” Ambient Weather: ambientweather.net/dashboard/29355f8f3f87e2a4ec7ccc562ab0f3cf WU: www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,100	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 6:54:40 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Mar 20, 2022 6:54:40 GMT -6 And of course it is always the day I will be the most busy and have to be on the road. Between getting the kids to school and dentist appt. And husband out of town for the week
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 7,936 Staff Member	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6 Stacie-Lumberton, MS likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6 Basically they put out a high risk on day 3. They have maxed out all potential percentages with a 3-day outlook.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

jimmycarl
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:19:29 GMT -6

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Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:19:29 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 6:19:32 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

But wait, there’s more! 👀👀
<button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button>

Not sure I understand this graphic. Is everything inside the black circle a high risk?? If so why the different %'s inside of the black circle

Last Edit: Mar 20, 2022 7:24:00 GMT -6 by jimmycarl

I know less than Sgt. Schultz

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,056	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:20:00 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:20:00 GMT -6 Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said: Basically they put out a high risk on day 3. They have maxed out all potential percentages with a 3-day outlook. Where is the high risk?
	I know less than Sgt. Schultz

Will - Ascension Parish
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:22:37 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Mar 20, 2022 7:22:37 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Basically they put out a high risk on day 3. They have maxed out all potential percentages with a 3-day outlook.

Where’s the high risk located?

Randy - Brandon, MS
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:24:20 GMT -6 via mobile HarahanTim - Now in Covington!, trueblue, and 5 more like this

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Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 20, 2022 7:24:20 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 7:22:37 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Basically they put out a high risk on day 3. They have maxed out all potential percentages with a 3-day outlook.

Where’s the high risk located?

They don’t issue high risks on day 3. Zack is saying they put out the highest possible percentages this far out. Part or all of the moderate risk area will likely be upgraded tomorrow.

This is the time of year I tell myself I’m moving out of central Mississippi. Every. Single. Year.

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,056	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:31:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:31:22 GMT -6 In turn will the enhanced areas be upgraded as well to the next level or is that how all that works?
	Last Edit: Mar 20, 2022 7:31:41 GMT -6 by jimmycarl I know less than Sgt. Schultz

darius Bogalusa
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:34:55 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 20, 2022 7:34:55 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 7:24:20 GMT -6 Randy - Brandon, MS said:

Mar 20, 2022 7:22:37 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Where’s the high risk located?

it seems from sandy hook Ms up to Jackson gets slammed every year....Bogalusa has been spared so far, although areas right north of us is a different story

Randy - Brandon, MS
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:36:08 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 20, 2022 7:36:08 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 7:31:22 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

In turn will the enhanced areas be upgraded as well to the next level or is that how all that works?

That’s a little tougher to say. A lot is going to depend on timing and storm mode. It sounds like our office up here is banking more on a QLCS or two…so more linear storms. That said, even if supercells don’t develop, this is going to be a very nasty line.

Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 7:38:16 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP on Mar 20, 2022 7:38:16 GMT -6

The conditions on the South Shore must've changed dramatically. Just a few hours ago we wasn't under any risk level at all then bing Bada boom I'm under a Level 3 risk! I was under the impression that the South Shore was going to be largely uneventful, so I was like 😱!

So they upgrade most or all of the moderate risk to high risk tomorrow, I wonder if they'll also upgrade a good portion of the current enhanced risk to moderate risk too? 🤷 Or perhaps even downgrade the South Shore again? 🤷

SONS RULE

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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 10:58:57 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Mar 20, 2022 10:58:57 GMT -6

Mar 20, 2022 6:19:32 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

But wait, there’s more! 👀👀
View Attachment

Seeing this makes me think of the long path tornado that hit Amite in the early 1900’s. Hope this event is a dud.

Sorry…can’t get the image to show up

Last Edit: Mar 20, 2022 11:00:29 GMT -6 by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex

Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 GCWX Supporter Posts: 8,053	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22 Mar 20, 2022 11:39:48 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 20, 2022 11:39:48 GMT -6 Why in the world would the NWS not have this image on our regional page?!?!

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT - Monday & Tuesday, 3/21/22 - 3/22/22

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 20, 2022 5:18:43 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 20, 2022 5:54:25 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Mar 20, 2022 6:19:32 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Mar 20, 2022 6:54:40 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Mar 20, 2022 7:05:49 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:19:29 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:20:00 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Mar 20, 2022 7:22:37 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 20, 2022 7:24:20 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 20, 2022 7:31:22 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 20, 2022 7:34:55 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Mar 20, 2022 7:36:08 GMT -6

Post by Stephanie Carpenter, WBANK JP on Mar 20, 2022 7:38:16 GMT -6

Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Mar 20, 2022 10:58:57 GMT -6

Post by Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 on Mar 20, 2022 11:39:48 GMT -6

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