SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022

Not much change on the 12z HRRR. It doesn't maintain a complete linear structure as it moves from west to east. There are multiple embedded cells within the line.

2pm - Lafayette
4pm - Baton Rouge
5pm - Hammond
6 - 7pm Slidell/New Orleans
8 - 9pm clearing SELA, Moving into Biloxi
10pm - Mobile

Winds ahead of the line: 50 - 65mph in gusts

Shear very supportive of rotating updrafts, out the south at the surface, veering to the southwest aloft.

Point and click Thermodynamics with line:
Surface Cape 500: 1200j/kg
Most Unstable CAPE: 1000 - 1300j/kg
0-3km Helicity: 500 - 1000

12z HRRR Sounding for Hammond just ahead of the line:

Not liking that at all esp after dark when we can’t see anything outside. And just hearing the sounds

UPDATED DAY 2 OUTLOOK....MODERATE RISK HAS EXPANDED. COULD WE SEE A HIGH RISK ISSUED TOMORROW?

The new Moderate Risk now includes just about the entire state of Mississipp!

A ridiculously large hatched tornado threat:

Well dang

Unless the SPC is confident in a derecho type impact, I don't see how it could go high without support for discrete cells in front to increase the tornado threat.

I need to speak to whoever made those risk outlines. We couldn't get that last little corner of southwest Hancock County, MS in the MDT risk? Come on.

But seriously...that's a massive hatched area; however, the high STP numbers are generally along and south of I-20 according to the HRRR and 3km NAM. What gives?