Here's what we're looking at for Day 6 as of right now. A large 15% (or Slight Risk). So far a tad north than the last one, but if I recall correctly, the Day 6-7 for our last storm system started with a farther north outlook as well. Looking at upper level forecasts on this morning's GFS, it shows the upper jet splitting almost directly overhead, similar to a few days ago.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Is there a difference from this past week's storm and this one next one severe wise? Or will this be more of a rain maker?
As of right now, we'll be on the tail end of storms, but being a week out, there's plenty of time for things to change. Overall it's a similar set up, but with a slightly farther north storm track.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Looking at the CISP guidance above it would indicate a moderate risk for the southern half of MS… possible for this event perhaps to be more linear then previous event, noting that the discrete cells may not be as prevalent… of course way to early to tell this far out.. the CISP guidance also goes a lot further south than the risk area as presented by the latest SPC today. Latest Euro and GFS disagree on CAPE values as well.. GSF looks much stronger..
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
This was from this morning's area forecast discussion from LIX.
Rain chances through Tuesday remain stunted with strong subsidence aloft. That will be changing, however, going into the mid portion of the week. The highly amplified ridge will be followed by a highly amplified trough. Medium range models are still in good agreement that the trough and associated cold front will swing through the Mississippi Valley late Wednesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the boundary as it comes through. Model soundings, although several days out, show a fairly good potential for severe with modest instability in place and ample shear will accompany the trough. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main threats. Progressiveness of the front will likely limit heavy rainfall potential. Post frontal airmass will certainly knock down temps for a day, but starting out so warm means behind the cold front will feel like normal for this time of year. The cool down will be limited to just 1 day with quick rebound to above normal temps.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by grisairgasm on Mar 26, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6
GFS has been persistent with the threats. On a better note, Harp and I are playing outside from 7-10 pm. Perfect weather! Low dew point also keeps moisture from condensing on the electronic metal amp parts. Almost always a problem down here at night. Guitar strings are rusty the next day.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Main weather concerns in the long term portion of the forecast will pretty much be focused on Wednesday as large scale troughing moves across the center of the country. Low pressure is expected to develop over Colorado on Tuesday and track into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will produce a rather tight pressure gradient across much of the Mississippi River Valley, not too much different than a few days ago. Very strong possibility that Wind Advisories will be necessary Wednesday, with potential minor coastal flooding issues possible depending on wind direction.With dew points moving into the mid 60s and a cold front approaching, there will be an increasing concern for severe weather for mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Still too early to address specific details, as we're still seeing some significant model differences in where the greatest impacts may be. Instability/buoyancy, at least at this point, doesn't look to be quite as strong as the last system, but low and mid level wind flow may actually be stronger, which would argue for a more linear system than what occurred this week. System does look progressive, at least through our area, so rainfall amounts in the 1-2 inch range look reasonable. SPC does outlook a good portion of the area for severe weather on Wednesday, so everyone should continue to track the forecast over the next few days.
Hammond, LA NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23