SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022

SKYSUMMIT
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 5:47:44 GMT -6 ju and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 25, 2022 5:47:44 GMT -6

Here's what we're looking at for Day 6 as of right now. A large 15% (or Slight Risk). So far a tad north than the last one, but if I recall correctly, the Day 6-7 for our last storm system started with a farther north outlook as well. Looking at upper level forecasts on this morning's GFS, it shows the upper jet splitting almost directly overhead, similar to a few days ago.

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jjc0320 Category 1 Posts: 113	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 5:57:01 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jjc0320 on Mar 25, 2022 5:57:01 GMT -6 Is there a difference from this past week's storm and this next one severe wise? Or will this be more of a rain maker?
	Last Edit: Mar 25, 2022 9:11:57 GMT -6 by jjc0320

SKYSUMMIT
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 6:29:42 GMT -6 grisairgasm likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 25, 2022 6:29:42 GMT -6

Mar 25, 2022 5:57:01 GMT -6 jjc0320 said:

Is there a difference from this past week's storm and this one next one severe wise? Or will this be more of a rain maker?

As of right now, we'll be on the tail end of storms, but being a week out, there's plenty of time for things to change. Overall it's a similar set up, but with a slightly farther north storm track.

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thermalwind - Touro Meteorology Student Posts: 1,407	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 8:54:23 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thermalwind - Touro on Mar 25, 2022 8:54:23 GMT -6 GFS and Euro both have the incoming trough take a negative tilt and swing some energy around over the SE. So yeah, time to start watching... again.

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 1,618	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 10:25:18 GMT -6 via mobile grisairgasm and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 25, 2022 10:25:18 GMT -6 Just read zach's post ..looks like this page will be popular in a few days

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,430	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 25, 2022 11:14:02 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Mar 25, 2022 11:14:02 GMT -6 Patterns, patterns, patterns.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 5:43:11 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 5:43:11 GMT -6 We now have our 15/30% for day 5.
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jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,050	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 6:00:48 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 6:00:48 GMT -6 That's what the GFS showed this morning.
	I know less than Sgt. Schultz

HarahanTim - Now in Covington! Moderator Director of Public Relations Posts: 5,988 Staff Member	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 6:01:55 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 26, 2022 6:01:55 GMT -6 Here is the 06z GFS, and the 00z EURO, on this Saturday morning, for Wednesday evening, Thursday morning.
	Last Edit: Mar 26, 2022 6:02:25 GMT -6 by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! GCWX Director of Public Relations Weather Underground www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLACOVIN110

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,050	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 8:10:23 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 8:10:23 GMT -6
	I know less than Sgt. Schultz

jimmycarl Category 5 Posts: 1,050	SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 8:56:09 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 8:56:09 GMT -6
	I know less than Sgt. Schultz

frankp
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 10:52:56 GMT -6

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Post by frankp on Mar 26, 2022 10:52:56 GMT -6

Looking at the CISP guidance above it would indicate a moderate risk for the southern half of MS… possible for this event perhaps to be more linear then previous event, noting that the discrete cells may not be as prevalent… of course way to early to tell this far out.. the CISP guidance also goes a lot further south than the risk area as presented by the latest SPC today. Latest Euro and GFS disagree on CAPE values as well.. GSF looks much stronger..

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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 13:51:23 GMT -6

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 13:51:23 GMT -6

This was from this morning's area forecast discussion from LIX.

Rain chances through
Tuesday remain stunted with strong subsidence aloft. That will be
changing, however, going into the mid portion of the week. The
highly amplified ridge will be followed by a highly amplified
trough. Medium range models are still in good agreement that the
trough and associated cold front will swing through the Mississippi
Valley late Wednesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to accompany the boundary as it comes through. Model
soundings, although several days out, show a fairly good potential
for severe with modest instability in place and ample shear will
accompany the trough. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main
threats. Progressiveness of the front will likely limit heavy
rainfall potential. Post frontal airmass will certainly knock down
temps for a day, but starting out so warm means behind the cold
front will feel like normal for this time of year. The cool down
will be limited to just 1 day with quick rebound to above normal
temps.

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grisairgasm
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6 harpman, Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59, and 2 more like this

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Post by grisairgasm on Mar 26, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6

GFS has been persistent with the threats. On a better note, Harp and I are playing outside from 7-10 pm. Perfect weather! Low dew point also keeps moisture from condensing on the electronic metal amp parts. Almost always a problem down here at night. Guitar strings are rusty the next day.

SKYSUMMIT
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SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022 Mar 26, 2022 16:10:37 GMT -6 grisairgasm and ju like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 16:10:37 GMT -6

LIX afternoon discussion:

.LONG TERM (Wednesday and beyond)...

Main weather concerns in the long term portion of the forecast
will pretty much be focused on Wednesday as large scale troughing
moves across the center of the country. Low pressure is expected
to develop over Colorado on Tuesday and track into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night and Thursday. This will produce a rather tight
pressure gradient across much of the Mississippi River Valley, not
too much different than a few days ago. Very strong possibility
that Wind Advisories will be necessary Wednesday, with potential
minor coastal flooding issues possible depending on wind
direction. With dew points moving into the mid 60s and a cold
front approaching, there will be an increasing concern for severe
weather for mainly Wednesday afternoon and evening. Still too
early to address specific details, as we're still seeing some
significant model differences in where the greatest impacts may
be. Instability/buoyancy, at least at this point, doesn't look to
be quite as strong as the last system, but low and mid level wind
flow may actually be stronger, which would argue for a more linear
system than what occurred this week. System does look progressive,
at least through our area, so rainfall amounts in the 1-2 inch
range look reasonable. SPC does outlook a good portion of the
area for severe weather on Wednesday, so everyone should continue
to track the forecast over the next few days.

REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!)
Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/
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stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: 3/30/2022

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 25, 2022 5:47:44 GMT -6

Post by jjc0320 on Mar 25, 2022 5:57:01 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 25, 2022 6:29:42 GMT -6

Post by thermalwind - Touro on Mar 25, 2022 8:54:23 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Mar 25, 2022 10:25:18 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Mar 25, 2022 11:14:02 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 5:43:11 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 6:00:48 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Mar 26, 2022 6:01:55 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 8:10:23 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Mar 26, 2022 8:56:09 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Mar 26, 2022 10:52:56 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 13:51:23 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Mar 26, 2022 14:31:17 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Mar 26, 2022 16:10:37 GMT -6

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