For being just 24-30 hours out, the models are still all over the place, as far as the dividing line between minimal and rather heavy rain.
Yeah, I don't want to downplay it, but it is looking more like one of our typical Spring storms. I don't think we'll get to 40 pages with this thread like we did last week.
Certainly not like last week, but, I have noticed all the models are kicking up the wind, over a pretty good area. Gusts of over 30mph are on all the models. Also, CAPE values are rather impressive, on most of the models. Another interesting day, in the gulf south.
Post by darius Bogalusa on Apr 4, 2022 15:14:46 GMT -6
I went from 2-3 inches to 1-2 inches also...Flash flood watch in my area....Don't see much happening...But will not be surprised if a storm stays in an area long enough to drop more inches than predicted.
The NWS discussion does indeed state a threat more for the northern end of the forecast area.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 401 PM CDT Mon Apr 4 2022
There has been a notable slowing trend in the latest guidance and the threat window for severe storms continues to shift from the overnight to the early to mid morning. There are an increasing number of CAMs that keep the QLCS upstream of Wilkinson Co, MS (the northwestern-most zone in our CWA) until daybreak (11-12Z). There has also been a slight northward shift in the model guidance regarding the southern extent of the bowing segment in this line (this is where the threat for damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes is greatest) tomorrow morning. There is increasing support from CAMs that even our northern tier (SW and coastal MS and Florida Parishes) could be located just south of the bowing segment. However, SPC D1/D2 outlooks still highlight areas north of I-10/12 in an enhanced risk for severe weather. This seems like a reasonable depiction of the southern extent of the more widespread damaging wind threat from a bow echo after considering the tendency for CAMs to displace the convective cold pool on the southern flank too far to the north. to As is common with these setups, the cold pool on the southern flank of the MCS bow echo is expected to become increasingly oriented west to east across the area. This will may cause the boundary to get hung up over the northern CWA and increase the likelihood for storms to train over the same areas. Models have come into better agreement, showing areas to the north of I-12 in SW MS and adjacent Florida parishes as most likely being where a band of locally heavy (2-3"+) rainfall could set up. We issued a Flash Flood Watch for these northern two tiers of counties/parishes for Tuesday morning but future shifts may need to consider expanding the watch southward toward the LA Northshore and Coastal MS if there is more of an indication that convection will stay organized as the line drifts this far south late in the morning-early afternoon.
The threat for severe weather and flash flooding should diminish by late morning and as you go south of I-10/I-12 as the best lift with the shortwave trough quickly pass to our north and northeast. Despite plenty of instability in the lingering warm- sector, the exit of the deeper lift will make the mid-level subsidence inversion more of an inhibiting factor for sustained, robust convection.
"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"
On his FB page Zack stated the risk was more in the line of damaging wind and heavy rain than tornados, and hail. I just hope we don't get anything that will blow the tarp off my home.
Surprise, Zach isnt wrong here imo.
Hmmmm….all I know is family in Eden Isles is under a severe thunderstorm warning reporting hail and the “whatever” disturbance/front is still about 12 hours from the NOLA area. What’s up with this? SE LA springtime and a GOM are always suspect. Hopefully an acute anomaly and tomorrow is ok.