Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Apr 1, 2022 6:25:44 GMT -6
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 011129
SPC AC 011129
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
CORRECTED FOR DAY-7 AND 8 LABELS
...DISCUSSION...
A complex pattern is evident during the Day 4-8 period with several
mid/upper shortwave troughs, surface lows and cold fronts
anticipated to impact severe potential across parts of Texas into
the southeastern U.S. through Day 6/Wed.
...Day 4/Monday - Central/Eastern TX into Western LA...
A mid/upper trough is forecast to shift east from the southwestern
U.S./northern Mexico to OK/TX. A stalled front is forecast to extend
from northwest TX to the Lower OH Valley early Monday. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward across
central/east TX and the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast. As the
western trough ejects eastward, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop over TX and shift east toward AR/LA. While uncertainty
exists in the northward extent of better moisture transport, a
corridor of moderate instability amid 40+ kt effective shear will
exist from central TX into western LA. Strong to severe
thunderstorms, including supercells, will be possible from
central/eastern TX into western LA. All severe hazards will be
possible.
...Day 5/Tuesday - Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast Vicinity...
The positive-tilt mid/upper trough extending from the Ozark Plateau
into TX will shift east/northeast across the TN Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic. A strong warm advection regime will exist across the
lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states as enhanced deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreads the region. There is some uncertainty
in how much destabilization will occur as clouds and widespread
rainfall could envelop much of the area. However, ensemble guidance
indicates at least pockets of modest destabilization within a
strongly sheared environment, as a weak surface low lifts northeast
from AR/LA to the central Appalachians through the evening hours.
This should support at least isolated severe potential.
...Day 6/Wednesday - TN Valley/southern Appalachians Vicinity...
A deep upper low and associated intense upper trough over the
Plains/Upper Midwest will develop eastward across much of the
central U.S. A strong cold front is forecast to advance
east/southeast across the southern and central U.S. Ensemble
guidance indicates adequate moisture will reside ahead of the front
across the TN Valley into the southern Appalachians with
temperatures warming into the mid 70s to low 80s. Strong deep-layer
shear, mainly parallel to the surface boundary will support
potential QLCS development and an attendant damaging wind threat
across portions of the region.
...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday...
The central U.S. mid/upper trough will move offshore during the end
of the period. Some severe potential could develop across parts of
the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic, but guidance varies considerably in
timing of both surface and upper level features, resulting in low
confidence.
..Leitman.. 04/01/2022
