GFS vs EURO

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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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GFS vs EURO May 17, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on May 17, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -6

GFS vs EURO…. I seem to remember that, when it comes to tropical weather forecasting, some years the GFS rules and others the EURO is king. It’s my (admittedly simple minded) understanding that these models are updated from time to time. My question is this: has either model been updated to any significant extent since last year’s hurricane season? Also a corollary: is it the updating of the models that results in one or the other being more successfully predictive?

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GFS vs EURO May 17, 2022 19:18:48 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on May 17, 2022 19:18:48 GMT -6

Both good questions, and unfortunately I cannot answer them LOL. I haven't been in touch with things as much over these past few months.

I do remember the rule we used to follow on active, mature storms however....the EURO has usually always been west biased, and the GFS right biased so we always would try to split the difference.

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nolasim
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GFS vs EURO May 29, 2022 17:20:47 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on May 29, 2022 17:20:47 GMT -6

May 17, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

I just did some research- there have been no updates to either model since the GFS update in 2021.

I have found over the years that while the EURO is generally considered to be more accurate, it seems to me (in my most amateur observations) that a certain model just seems to do a better job in a particular year. I remember some years ago the UKMET seemed to do extremely well; in 2020, the German ICON of all things nailed some hurricane forecasts with some decent consistency. It seems to me that last year the updated GFS sniffed out some storms and tracks before the EURO jumped on board. Myself, I look at both and look for patterns.

For instance, as you recall about two weeks ago the GFS was sniffing out a major hurricane to strike SE LA on May 26th. Then it delayed that landfall until May 28th for various other locations. Then it backed off all of those solutions altogether. All the while, the EURO never sniffed out anything.

Now if you look ahead to next week, the remnants of TS Agatha are forecast by both to cross over in the BOC, so that's something I'll watch simply out of curiosity. I myself look for patterns in both models.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

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geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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GFS vs EURO Jun 1, 2022 7:35:06 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Jun 1, 2022 7:35:06 GMT -6

May 29, 2022 17:20:47 GMT -6 nolasim said:

May 17, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

I just did some research- there have been no updates to either model since the GFS update in 2021.

Makes sense. Thanks for looking into it. I have to keep reminding myself that models are for guidance and are not set in stone. I just find the ascendency of different models at different times an interesting phenomenon. It would be nice if some met did a detained analysis of why this is. May get some data to improve model forecasting.

nolasim
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GFS vs EURO Jun 1, 2022 9:02:19 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Jun 1, 2022 9:02:19 GMT -6

Jun 1, 2022 7:35:06 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

May 29, 2022 17:20:47 GMT -6 nolasim said:

I just did some research- there have been no updates to either model since the GFS update in 2021.

More than a met, perhaps the Meteorology Department at one of the universities might garner a grant for the purpose of studying this. Research is their thing but of course it requires money.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex
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GFS vs EURO Jun 1, 2022 14:06:08 GMT -6 via mobile nolasim likes this

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Post by geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex on Jun 1, 2022 14:06:08 GMT -6

Jun 1, 2022 9:02:19 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jun 1, 2022 7:35:06 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex said:

More than a met, perhaps the Meteorology Department at one of the universities might garner a grant for the purpose of studying this. Research is their thing but of course it requires money.

Yeah you right!

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