TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread

hurricaner
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 23, 2022 21:07:18 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jun 23, 2022 21:07:18 GMT -6

The disturbance in the eastern Atlantic is now Invest 94L.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Last Edit: Jul 1, 2022 17:54:10 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 23, 2022 23:55:08 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jun 23, 2022 23:55:08 GMT -6

Invest 94L is now at 50%.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development over the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
as this system moves westward at around 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Last Edit: Jun 23, 2022 23:55:45 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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thibodauxwx GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,464	TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 6:03:06 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thibodauxwx on Jun 24, 2022 6:03:06 GMT -6 I won’t be surprised if this developed, we did have Hurricane Cindy the first week of July I’m 2005. Just need to watch it.

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 480	TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 6:31:10 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Jun 24, 2022 6:31:10 GMT -6

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 6:31:26 GMT -6 nolasim and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this

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Post by ndg on Jun 24, 2022 6:31:26 GMT -6

Nothing is written on stone but so far there's no evidence the death ridge will let up across the Deep South protecting the US from 94L, this looks to be a C.A. system.
Sign that this will be a an active Caribbean season, hopefully La Nina ridging will stay in place during the season like 2007.

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 6:53:46 GMT -6

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Post by nolasim on Jun 24, 2022 6:53:46 GMT -6

Jun 24, 2022 6:31:26 GMT -6 ndg said:

Nothing is written on stone but so far there's no evidence the death ridge will let up across the Deep South protecting the US from 94L, this looks to be a C.A. system.
Sign that this will be a an active Caribbean season, hopefully La Nina ridging will stay in place during the season like 2007.

Both the GFS and EURO are in almost identical in that agreement. Both have it hitting Central America around July 2nd. Of course we still monitor.

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 7:06:04 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jun 24, 2022 7:06:04 GMT -6

94L is up to 60% of development by day 5.

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves westward
at around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the
Windward Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Last Edit: Jun 24, 2022 7:06:44 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,608	TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 7:35:29 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jun 24, 2022 7:35:29 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,966 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 8:46:46 GMT -6 VERticalnoGO likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 24, 2022 8:46:46 GMT -6 Latest ensembles. Meanwhile the GFS is showing the heat ridge shifting back east for the 4th.
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 19:19:27 GMT -6 via mobile PinkFreud - Nola FQ, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 1 more like this

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Post by roorufus on Jun 24, 2022 19:19:27 GMT -6

Someone explain to me why the page called “Tropical Storm Central” is saying major hurricane by July 1? I find that kind of fear mongering is not necessary especially for those of us still struggling after Ida. I mean I understand we should be prepared, but I don’t think inciting panic is a good idea 🤷🏼‍♀️Idk how to upload the screen shot because I would if I did.

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 24, 2022 21:11:46 GMT -6 HarahanTim - Now in Covington!, roorufus, and 2 more like this

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Post by pastormichael on Jun 24, 2022 21:11:46 GMT -6

I do not put much stock in "Tropical Storm Central." They take serious what every forecast model has to say like where gonna get blown away, now if Zack or Dylan Federico start to notice a forecast model, I pay attention!

Last Edit: Jun 24, 2022 21:14:17 GMT -6 by pastormichael

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 25, 2022 23:54:36 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jun 25, 2022 23:54:36 GMT -6

Invest 94L is now in the red as storms have begun to increase.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this
week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and
move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Last Edit: Jun 25, 2022 23:55:21 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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lawxnut
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 26, 2022 7:38:03 GMT -6

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Post by lawxnut on Jun 26, 2022 7:38:03 GMT -6

Jun 24, 2022 19:19:27 GMT -6 roorufus said:

Someone explain to me why the page called “Tropical Storm Central” is saying major hurricane by July 1? I find that kind of fear mongering is not necessary especially for those of us still struggling after Ida. I mean I understand we should be prepared, but I don’t think inciting panic is a good idea 🤷🏼‍♀️Idk how to upload the screen shot because I would if I did.

They have several that do that. They post something 5+ days out. It’s a way to get attention. Just ignore it.

homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,128	TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 26, 2022 13:08:54 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Jun 26, 2022 13:08:54 GMT -6 Jun 24, 2022 7:35:29 GMT -6 ndg said: Into the central Caribbean. But nothing shown here, as far as beyond the Caribbean.

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread Jun 26, 2022 17:44:31 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Jun 26, 2022 17:44:31 GMT -6

Invest 94L is now at 60/80%.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward
Islands has changed little in organization since earlier today.
However, environmental conditions appear conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or
while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday
through Friday. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the
northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for
portions of these areas on Monday. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the
northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Last Edit: Jun 26, 2022 17:45:45 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE - Discussion Thread

Post by hurricaner on Jun 23, 2022 21:07:18 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jun 23, 2022 23:55:08 GMT -6

Post by thibodauxwx on Jun 24, 2022 6:03:06 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Jun 24, 2022 6:31:10 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 24, 2022 6:31:26 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 24, 2022 6:53:46 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jun 24, 2022 7:06:04 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 24, 2022 7:35:29 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 24, 2022 8:46:46 GMT -6

Post by roorufus on Jun 24, 2022 19:19:27 GMT -6

Post by pastormichael on Jun 24, 2022 21:11:46 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jun 25, 2022 23:54:36 GMT -6

Post by lawxnut on Jun 26, 2022 7:38:03 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 26, 2022 13:08:54 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Jun 26, 2022 17:44:31 GMT -6

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