INVEST 99L Discussion Thread

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Remnants/Dissipated

hurricaner
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INVEST 99L Discussion Thread Dec 5, 2022 15:10:34 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Dec 5, 2022 15:10:34 GMT -6

Well the season maybe over but we have new Invest 99L in the central Atlantic.

A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the
next few days. By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming
a subtropical cyclone. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or
earlier.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Last Edit: Dec 5, 2022 15:10:56 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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INVEST 99L Discussion Thread Dec 5, 2022 22:21:35 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Dec 5, 2022 22:21:35 GMT -6

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the
next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential
of tropical transition after that time. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST
Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Last Edit: Dec 5, 2022 22:22:00 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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INVEST 99L Discussion Thread Dec 6, 2022 9:53:03 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Dec 6, 2022 9:53:03 GMT -6

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of
days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward
over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting
subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional
information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9
PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Last Edit: Dec 6, 2022 9:53:35 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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crashtestdummy
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Posts: 591

INVEST 99L Discussion Thread Dec 6, 2022 13:39:05 GMT -6

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Post by crashtestdummy on Dec 6, 2022 13:39:05 GMT -6

Just when you thought you could turn your back on the tropics! Looks like sheer will quell much developement. Looking at the GEOS16 satellite images, though, it looks like the Azores are enjoying a bit of low pressure storminess. :-)

"You can learn a lot from a dummy."

Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

Shoutbox

frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6

frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: :snowing: Nov 25, 2022 19:25:19 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago. Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football! Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues! Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6

gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ? Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie. Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6

nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted. Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it. Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message! Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6

PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him. Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6

chopin - River Ridge: beach cam clearwater: www.beta.myclearwater.com/Visit-the-Beach/Live-Video-of-Clearwater-Beach Sept 26, 2022 15:57:54 GMT -6

HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"! Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6

T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue: Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6