Post by SKYSUMMIT on Nov 10, 2023 6:30:45 GMT -6
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2023
With the frontal boundary stationary near the area and southwest
upper flow continuing, don't expect to see sunshine any time soon.
Clouds will remain across the area this weekend, although there
may be a relative lull in rain chances from late Saturday night
through Sunday night as one shortwave moving out of the
southwestern trough shears out north of the local area. The
southern trough eventually gets ejected out of Mexico Sunday night
as troughing moves onto the Pacific Coast. Low pressure at the
surface is expected to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico
Monday and track along or just south of the Louisiana coast on
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This is expected to produce a more
significant area of rainfall across the area beginning during the
day on Monday through Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. Global
guidance is in quite a bit better agreement than it was 24 hours
ago, with both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic guidance painting a
stripe of at least 2-4 inches of rain, and potentially more,
across the area for the Monday-Tuesday event. We're a bit too far
in time from the system to pinpoint where higher amounts could
occur, but some locations could certainly see considerably more
than the 2-4 inches noted above. Any thunder with that system is
expected to remain very limited, if any occurs at all, as
instability remains limited.
Once the system exits to the east on Wednesday, shortwave ridging
tries to build in, with sunnier, drier, warmer conditions
returning briefly for the end of the week and the first half of
next weekend.
Temperatures are generally expected to remain above normal
overall. With little difference between GFS and ECMWF temperature
guidance for the most part, NBM numbers should need little to no
adjustment.
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