[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:50:57 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, trueblue, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:50:57 GMT -6 Almost a perfect symmetry. Somebody pinch me, I can't believe is I'm looking at this on June 30th in this area of the Atlantic.

nolasim
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:51:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2024 6:51:01 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 4:28:07 GMT -6 trethe said:

It has been trending incrementally northward with each passing model run since yesterday. At some point the models will become more fixed on a location. Have not seen this yet.

And yet the GFS and EURO are wildly dissimilar in their solutions, with the EURO bringing it much further south.

FWIW, the 06Z ICON agrees with the EURO. As for the Canadian........the Crazy Uncle....it has SE LA being slammed with a storm, so for sure we're safe.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,363	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:58:02 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish and houmalady like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:02 GMT -6 If this is what June 30th looks like. I hate to see August and September
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:58:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:41 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:33:03 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

Jun 30, 2024 6:28:56 GMT -6 ndg said:

Both the GFS and Euro now agree that the TUTT in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM is going to move away far enough not to affect Beryl as it tracks in the western Caribbean.

Beryl will be one heck of an ACE maker.

I believe there were hints of such beginning yesterday. And correct me if I am wrong but the narrowing of the TUTT in conjunction with a trough approaching will enhance the ability for Beryl to ventilate and re-intensify as she approaches the Yucatan.

There was a hint of it on yesterday's models but the Euro and GFS were not in agreement until last night's run.
On last night's Euro run it shows three good outflow channels.

SKYSUMMIT
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:02:18 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 7:02:18 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:37:07 GMT -6 ndg said:

Second AF recon pass shows Beryl continues to strengthen.

Recon shows Beryl continues to strengthen this morning.

122300 1043N 05402W 6973 02944 //// +099 //// 107099 108 111 010 01
122330 1041N 05402W 6974 02915 9706 +162 +145 104068 084 112 006 03
122400 1039N 05403W 6967 02907 9677 +178 +127 105053 062 090 000 00
122430 1038N 05403W 6967 02899 9668 +180 +105 106038 049 059 000 00
122500 1036N 05403W 6973 02885 9663 +181 +098 109027 032 038 000 00
122530 1034N 05404W 6967 02889 9654 +183 +098 122017 024 026 001 00
122600 1033N 05405W 6964 02895 9648 +191 +099 113010 013 023 000 00
122630 1031N 05406W 6965 02894 9642 +197 +101 092010 011 026 000 03
122700 1029N 05406W 6967 02894 9679 +165 +102 310011 021 033 001 00
122730 1028N 05407W 6973 02901 9714 +147 +102 295031 038 066 003 00

This is insane. The energy behind this season is scary.

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trethe
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:02:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 7:02:19 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:51:01 GMT -6 nolasim said:

Jun 30, 2024 4:28:07 GMT -6 trethe said:

It has been trending incrementally northward with each passing model run since yesterday. At some point the models will become more fixed on a location. Have not seen this yet.

And yet the GFS and EURO are wildly dissimilar in their solutions, with the EURO bringing it much further south.

FWIW, the 06Z ICON agrees with the EURO. As for the Canadian........the Crazy Uncle....it has SE LA being slammed with a storm, so for sure we're safe.

I am primarily focusing on the consensus model at this point which takes all of the above into consideration. Specifically, the TVCN, which is typically a precursor to what the NHC will do with their track.

BTW... the 0Z NAVGEM agreed somewhat with Crazy Uncle.

Last Edit: Jun 30, 2024 7:04:36 GMT -6 by trethe

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -6 via mobile trethe and darius Bogalusa like this

Quote

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -6

CMC is not the joke model it once was. It actually has some better verification statistics than the GFS although Euro is still king.

Speaking of the euro, ensembles are spread from the Yucatán Gap all the way to Honduras. Only about 5-6 days out…no fantasy land anymore but short term trends mean a lot for long term. That’s why I’m interested that it’s running a bit south of forecast.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:11:35 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, trethe, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 7:11:35 GMT -6

Pressure down to 964mb per the latest AF recon vortex, wow!

URNT12 KNHC 301300
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 30/12:26:50Z
B. 10.51 deg N 054.10 deg W
C. 700 mb 2851 m
D. EXTRAP 964 mb
E. NA
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 111 kt
I. 019 deg 14 nm 12:23:00Z
J. 109 deg 110 kt
K. 021 deg 15 nm 12:22:30Z
L. 91 kt
M. 263 deg 8 nm 12:39:30Z
N. 328 deg 95 kt
O. 263 deg 8 nm 12:39:30Z
P. 18 C / 3047 m
Q. 20 C / 3050 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF300 0102A BERYL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 110 KT 021 / 15 NM 12:22:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
;

pastormichael
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:15:33 GMT -6 spencer6898 likes this

Quote

Post by pastormichael on Jun 30, 2024 7:15:33 GMT -6

I'm not saying that Beryl is going to shift farther north in its track, but anything can happen when landfall is over 7 days away! We need to pay attention. Look at the track of Edith in 71. She went right up to Corpus Christi then turned due northeast and went into Vermilion Bay.

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lsuhurricane
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:20:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by lsuhurricane on Jun 30, 2024 7:20:11 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -6 Kory said:

CMC is not the joke model it once was. It actually has some better verification statistics than the GFS although Euro is still king.

Speaking of the euro, ensembles are spread from the Yucatán Gap all the way to Honduras. Only about 5-6 days out…no fantasy land anymore but short term trends mean a lot for long term. That’s why I’m interested that it’s running a bit south of forecast.

6z Euro Ensembles agree with this. A very notable northwestern jog on the last frames. Some a bit concerning

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,611 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:24:45 GMT -6 greeneyedgirl, NavyMom: WBR Parish, and 2 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 7:24:45 GMT -6 There were some nasty ensemble members from the overnight Canadian.
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homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:26:18 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 7:26:18 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 7:20:11 GMT -6 lsuhurricane said:

Jun 30, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -6 Kory said:

CMC is not the joke model it once was. It actually has some better verification statistics than the GFS although Euro is still king.

Speaking of the euro, ensembles are spread from the Yucatán Gap all the way to Honduras. Only about 5-6 days out…no fantasy land anymore but short term trends mean a lot for long term. That’s why I’m interested that it’s running a bit south of forecast.

6z Euro Ensembles agree with this. A very notable northwestern jog on the last frames. Some a bit concerning

Historically speaking we (La) do NOT want Beryl “shooting the gap” (Yucatan channel). Crossing the gap? That is fine. But shooting the gap, so to speak, is a bad angle for a hurricane to be taking a path into the SC GOM.

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,037	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:26:32 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Jun 30, 2024 7:26:32 GMT -6 Looks like we can forget about this thing falling apart in the western Caribbean like we were hoping a couple days ago.

homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:28:03 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 7:28:03 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 7:24:45 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

There were some nasty ensemble members from the overnight Canadian.

Noticing more of a spread to the NW/N/NE in the later part of these runs. It started ever so slightly yesterday.

spencer6898
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 7:28:14 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by spencer6898 on Jun 30, 2024 7:28:14 GMT -6

If I am not mistaken, the stronger this storm is. The more it is going to want to be pulled north by the ridge of high pressure above it. Mid term, the land interaction by the Yuctan should weaken it. Long term, how strong it is after the Yuctan should play a role in how far north it goes. I may not like the heat. However, Louisiana does not need another hurricane. I say all of that to say this. We have high pressure over us right now. As long as the high pressure stays over us. We should be good? Say more heat, no hurricane! lol

[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:50:57 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Jun 30, 2024 6:51:01 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:02 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:41 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 7:02:18 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 7:02:19 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 7:11:22 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 7:11:35 GMT -6

Post by pastormichael on Jun 30, 2024 7:15:33 GMT -6

Post by lsuhurricane on Jun 30, 2024 7:20:11 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 7:24:45 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 7:26:18 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Jun 30, 2024 7:26:32 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 7:28:03 GMT -6

Post by spencer6898 on Jun 30, 2024 7:28:14 GMT -6

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