[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 5:57:54 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 5:57:54 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 5:54:06 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

UNTHINKABLE and for lste June no less! What lies ahead for all the pro mets as this is an unprecedented weather event? This is the most intriguing aspect of Beryl to me. They have no previous examples to look at for a major in this area and future path at this time of the season.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,611 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 5:58:47 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 5:58:47 GMT -6 I am not sure about the earliest Major, but if Beryl reaches Cat 4 intensity prior to 7/4 (which he will), Beryl will become the earliest storm in Atlantic history to reach Cat 4 status.
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Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 5:59:59 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT, trethe, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 5:59:59 GMT -6 2005 Emily is about the closest thing we have as an analog. Maybe the 1933 hurricane, but it never got this strong this fast.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,424	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:08:05 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 6:08:05 GMT -6 What also has me intrigued is that she is moving (so fast) westward at 21 mph and has been able to do what she has been doing.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:11:00 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 6:11:00 GMT -6 Seems to be running a little south of forecast track in the near term.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:11:06 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:11:06 GMT -6 Recon confirms that Beryl is a Major Hurricane this morning. 15900 1041N 05355W 7528 02300 9786 +163 +159 108105 110 104 007 00 115930 1040N 05355W 7536 02250 9749 +160 +161 113098 104 107 003 01

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:13:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:13:05 GMT -6

Extrap pressure in the 960s mb.

120000 1038N 05355W 7539 02220 9681 +209 +138 113064 088 106 000 03
120030 1036N 05356W 7529 02217 9657 +222 +120 119040 053 086 001 00
120100 1034N 05356W 7531 02214 9658 +216 +125 137025 033 041 000 00
120130 1033N 05357W 7526 02220 9660 +215 +110 154015 024 034 000 00
120200 1031N 05357W 7536 02212 9664 +217 +106 185010 011 032 000 00
120230 1029N 05357W 7501 02264 9669 +224 +100 221014 018 033 000 00
120300 1027N 05357W 7495 02281 9680 +221 +105 237032 038 073 002 00

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,424	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:14:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 6:14:12 GMT -6 Just looking at the 06z model plots and the agreement amongst them are pretty amazing throughout her life in the Carribean.

homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,517	[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:18:43 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:18:43 GMT -6 Jun 30, 2024 6:14:12 GMT -6 trethe said: Just looking at the 06z model plots and the agreement amongst them are pretty amazing throughout her life in the Carribean. Scary

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:21:16 GMT -6 trethe likes this

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:21:16 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:08:05 GMT -6 trethe said:

What also has me intrigued is that she is moving (so fast) westward at 21 mph and has been able to do what she has been doing.

That's because just about all columns of the atmosphere are moving westward about the same speed. That's the same reason why Major Hurricanes in the northern Atlantic moving NE about this same speed if not higher along with the strong westerlies are able to keep their strength as long as the waters are warm enough.

Kory
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:25:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 6:25:09 GMT -6

I think the key for any northern gulf problem will be where it hits the Yucatan. Those members of the global ensembles that bring it north toward the northern Gulf are stronger and have it impact north of Belize toward Cancun and Cozumel. A good bit of Euro ensembles have it take a W/WSW dive into Belize/Honduras once in the western Caribbean...that would bury it deep in Central America and I don't think even a weakness in the ridge opening will be enough to pull it north.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

homeymandeville
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Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:27:39 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:27:39 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:25:09 GMT -6 Kory said:

I think the key for any northern gulf problem will be where it hits the Yucatan. Those members of the global ensembles that bring it north toward the northern Gulf are stronger and have it impact north of Belize toward Cancun and Cozumel. A good bit of Euro ensembles have it take a W/WSW dive into Belize/Honduras once in the western Caribbean...that would bury it deep in Central America and I don't think even a weakness in the ridge opening will be enough to pull it north.

Let’s hope for the EURO ensembles are the ticket for Beryl to visit somewhere.

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:28:56 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:28:56 GMT -6

Both the GFS and Euro now agree that the TUTT in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM is going to move away far enough not to affect Beryl as it tracks in the western Caribbean.

Beryl will be one heck of an ACE maker.

Last Edit: Jun 30, 2024 6:30:30 GMT -6 by ndg

homeymandeville
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:33:03 GMT -6 via mobile ndg likes this

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Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:33:03 GMT -6

Jun 30, 2024 6:28:56 GMT -6 ndg said:

Both the GFS and Euro now agree that the TUTT in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM is going to move away far enough not to affect Beryl as it tracks in the western Caribbean.

Beryl will be one heck of an ACE maker.

I believe there were hints of such beginning yesterday. And correct me if I am wrong but the narrowing of the TUTT in conjunction with a trough approaching will enhance the ability for Beryl to ventilate and re-intensify as she approaches the Yucatan.

Last Edit: Jun 30, 2024 6:35:40 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

ndg
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[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread Jun 30, 2024 6:37:07 GMT -6

Quote

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:37:07 GMT -6

Second AF recon pass shows Beryl continues to strengthen.

Recon shows Beryl continues to strengthen this morning.

122300 1043N 05402W 6973 02944 //// +099 //// 107099 108 111 010 01
122330 1041N 05402W 6974 02915 9706 +162 +145 104068 084 112 006 03
122400 1039N 05403W 6967 02907 9677 +178 +127 105053 062 090 000 00
122430 1038N 05403W 6967 02899 9668 +180 +105 106038 049 059 000 00
122500 1036N 05403W 6973 02885 9663 +181 +098 109027 032 038 000 00
122530 1034N 05404W 6967 02889 9654 +183 +098 122017 024 026 001 00
122600 1033N 05405W 6964 02895 9648 +191 +099 113010 013 023 000 00
122630 1031N 05406W 6965 02894 9642 +197 +101 092010 011 026 000 03
122700 1029N 05406W 6967 02894 9679 +165 +102 310011 021 033 001 00
122730 1028N 05407W 6973 02901 9714 +147 +102 295031 038 066 003 00

[H] HURRICANE BERYL - Discussion Thread

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 5:57:54 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 30, 2024 5:58:47 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 5:59:59 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 6:08:05 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 6:11:00 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:11:06 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:13:05 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jun 30, 2024 6:14:12 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:18:43 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:21:16 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Jun 30, 2024 6:25:09 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:27:39 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:28:56 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Jun 30, 2024 6:33:03 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Jun 30, 2024 6:37:07 GMT -6

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