INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:08:38 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

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Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 14:08:38 GMT -6

I mean like the 12z UKMET as conservative as this model is if this model shows something it’s time to really pay attention. It’s also in good agreement with Icon and AIFS

Last Edit: Sept 6, 2024 14:11:54 GMT -6 by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish

nolasim
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:13:03 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish likes this

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Post by nolasim on Sept 6, 2024 14:13:03 GMT -6

Sept 6, 2024 14:05:20 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish said:

Sept 6, 2024 13:57:57 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Euro simply shows a super disorganized mess of rain going into the general Houston area.

GFS shows a depression riding up the Texas coast.

Tbh I feel like gfs and euro are just playing catch up either the Icon and AIFS model but that’s just my OP .

Your opinion is welcome and embraced, even if not everyone is on board, and you may be spot on. The ICON could be "this year's model" (channeling my inner Elvis Costello) that is leading the way. It would be the first time in four years, but hey, data is data, and no one can argue with its success so far this season.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:16:52 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 14:16:52 GMT -6 12z ECMWF-AIFS same idea as 06z but a little weaker

swla6
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:17:07 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by swla6 on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:07 GMT -6

Sept 6, 2024 13:51:36 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Yep that 989 would certainly be a strong storm or weak hurricane. Moving kinda fast like that would probably cause some minor wind issues in Baton Rouge.

However, let's not pretend that a northeast moving storm doesn't usually go further east than forecast. In order for it to hit Baton Rouge, I think it'd have to be forecast to go between Lake Charles and Lafayette lol.

16th run in a row for Euro AI, 5th in a row with a Louisiana landfall. The 12z Euro AI has it on the east side of the Vermillion bays a strong TS

frankp GCWX Supporter Posts: 592	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6 12z UKMET

cajungal
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6

Sept 6, 2024 14:17:07 GMT -6 swla6 said:

Sept 6, 2024 13:51:36 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Yep that 989 would certainly be a strong storm or weak hurricane. Moving kinda fast like that would probably cause some minor wind issues in Baton Rouge.

However, let's not pretend that a northeast moving storm doesn't usually go further east than forecast. In order for it to hit Baton Rouge, I think it'd have to be forecast to go between Lake Charles and Lafayette lol.

16th run in a row for Euro AI, 5th in a row with a Louisiana landfall. The 12z Euro AI has it on the east side of the Vermillion bays a strong TS

If that verified us in Lafourche and Terrebonne would get the bulk

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,379	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:19:29 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 6, 2024 14:19:29 GMT -6 Kinda have Juan 1985 vibes. I was 9 and for some reason don’t remember much of that storm. But the flooding in Terrebonne parish was severe.
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 2,249	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:22:41 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 6, 2024 14:22:41 GMT -6 houma is getting pounded!

darius Bogalusa
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:25:12 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 6, 2024 14:25:12 GMT -6

Sept 6, 2024 14:08:38 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish said:

I mean like the 12z UKMET as conservative as this model is if this model shows something it’s time to really pay attention. It’s also in good agreement with Icon and AIFS

If area of development is in the BOC then this is absolutely possible...

NavyMom: WBR Parish Moderator Posts: 1,571 Staff Member	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 14:54:12 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 14:54:12 GMT -6 Didn’t the UKMET do well with Beryl?
	“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.” Ambient Weather: ambientweather.net/dashboard/29355f8f3f87e2a4ec7ccc562ab0f3cf WU: www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KLAADDIS7

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,805	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 15:04:40 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Sept 6, 2024 15:04:40 GMT -6 This is just flat out BIZARRE.

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 780	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 15:06:10 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 15:06:10 GMT -6 HAFS-A HAFS-B I’ll give the hurricane models one more day before they start locking in.
	Last Edit: Sept 6, 2024 15:07:25 GMT -6 by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish

frankp
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INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 15:15:21 GMT -6

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Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 15:15:21 GMT -6

Per the NHC "A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary." That is one pitiful looking wave, I feel like this is May and not the peak of the hurricane season... side note: the wave down by Honduras and Nicaragua is much more impressive to me.

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 15:19:04 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Sept 6, 2024 15:19:04 GMT -6 Are we getting to the point where we throw out the models and simply look at the atmospheric conditions in place and use expertise to forecast from that? Edited to add: Not MY expertise, mind you.
	Last Edit: Sept 6, 2024 15:19:40 GMT -6 by nolasim "Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

swla6 Tropical Storm Posts: 96	INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread Sept 6, 2024 15:19:06 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by swla6 on Sept 6, 2024 15:19:06 GMT -6 18z Icon with a 990mb storm into Cameron on Wednesday

INVEST 90L - Discussion Thread

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 14:08:38 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 6, 2024 14:13:03 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 14:16:52 GMT -6

Post by swla6 on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:07 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 6, 2024 14:17:58 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 6, 2024 14:19:29 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 6, 2024 14:22:41 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 6, 2024 14:25:12 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 14:54:12 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Sept 6, 2024 15:04:40 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 6, 2024 15:06:10 GMT -6

Post by frankp on Sept 6, 2024 15:15:21 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 6, 2024 15:19:04 GMT -6

Post by swla6 on Sept 6, 2024 15:19:06 GMT -6

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