[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Both of the most recent GFS and EURO ensembles:

He did indeed. My question is: at what point? For instance, GFS definitely has it going more to the east but mostly after it hits land, arguably a tad before it hits land. EURO has it just about to hit Texas before it gives a right hook to the jaw of Lake Charles and definitely makes and eastern swath. So while a shift east, yes, but is it about the timing?

I've got my toes in the mud down here on the bayou, but I'm still going to wait for some recon and a better position on that. Further east is a beast IMO, don't like that and def don't want to see that verify.

Such a contrast difference on forecasted strength between the GFS & Euro operational runs. Like Zack has always said we can’t imagine one of them being that wrong, a route to take with a consensus between them two is the best one to assume for now of a high end TS or Cat 1 at landfall. The shear will either be a deterrent or help it strengthen. We shall see.

I have never heard of shear being a friend to a tropical system can someone enlighten me?

From what I understand depending on the direction the shear is coming from into the storm (angle) it can create enhanced lift for tstorm development. But what do I really know? 🤷‍♂️