[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,540 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6 via mobile T-man, roz, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 8, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6 Very dangerous run from the 12Z GFS. Major hurricane impact into Vermilion Bay cutting across Baton Rouge.
	Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 9:57:34 GMT -6 by Zack Fradella Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,364

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 9:59:17 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 9:59:17 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Very dangerous run from the 12Z GFS. Major hurricane impact into Vermilion Bay cutting across Baton Rouge.

That would be horrible. Not only for Baton Rouge. But St Mary. Lafourche and Terrebonne

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 3,282

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:01:04 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:01:04 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Very dangerous run from the 12Z GFS. Major hurricane impact into Vermilion Bay cutting across Baton Rouge.

Yep, that run would be a bad, bad scenario for sela in the Baton Rouge and Morgan City areas.

roz GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,192	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:01:37 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:01:37 GMT -6 12z GFS...that's quite the change!

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6 Could this possibly be a GFS convective feedback issue?
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Zack Fradella
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal, roz, and 2 more like this

Quote

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 8, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6 Kory said:

Could this possibly be a GFS convective feedback issue?

We can only hope. We give pause until the hurricane models come up with this idea.

Our in house GRAF model agrees with the rapid strengthening over the western Gulf though.

Zack Fradella
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cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,364

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:04:14 GMT -6 via mobile lisamath likes this

Quote

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 10:04:14 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6 Kory said:

Could this possibly be a GFS convective feedback issue?

We can only hope. We give pause until the hurricane models come up with this idea.

Our in house GRAF model agrees with the rapid strengthening over the western Gulf though.

😢

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Will - Ascension Parish
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Posts: 3,282

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:07:21 GMT -6 via mobile whitecap and pnuts like this

Quote

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:07:21 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6 Kory said:

Could this possibly be a GFS convective feedback issue?

We can only hope. We give pause until the hurricane models come up with this idea.

Our in house GRAF model agrees with the rapid strengthening over the western Gulf though.

You’re supposed to say the in house GRAF model shows this turning into a September snow event for southern Louisiana.

For the time being, I’ll pretend that’s what you said.

tcane Category 1 Posts: 211	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:10:58 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:10:58 GMT -6 So that GFS path across Baton Rouge as a major. What would the impacts be for New Orleans area?

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,802	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:22:38 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 10:22:38 GMT -6 Are the 12z spaghetti plots out yet?

darius Bogalusa Category 5 Posts: 2,231	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -6 As I mentioned yesterday ANYTHING in the gulf this time of the year is dangerous.....Thats a devastating run

tcane Category 1 Posts: 211	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:24:03 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:24:03 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said: As I mentioned yesterday ANYTHING in the gulf this time of the year is dangerous.....Thats a devastating run For who?

Kory
Moderator

Posts: 1,601

Location: Metairie, LA

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:27:15 GMT -6 via mobile gravomr likes this

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:27:15 GMT -6

GFS ensembles definitely show an uptick in development percentages and intensity. Tight clustering from West to Central LA on a NE trajectory. Kind of an unusual storm motion for us as most of our storms come from the SE.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Will - Ascension Parish
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 3,282

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:27:59 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:27:59 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:24:03 GMT -6 tcane said:

Sept 8, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -6 darius Bogalusa said:

As I mentioned yesterday ANYTHING in the gulf this time of the year is dangerous.....Thats a devastating run

For who?

Lafayette, Morgan City, Baton Rouge

lsukev4 GCWX Supporter Posts: 623	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:29:32 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsukev4 on Sept 8, 2024 10:29:32 GMT -6 Might be redundant, but do we have a recon fix?
	I’m in Gretna

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 8, 2024 9:57:23 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 9:59:17 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:01:04 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:01:37 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:02:26 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 8, 2024 10:03:34 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 10:04:14 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:07:21 GMT -6

Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:10:58 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 10:22:38 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -6

Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:24:03 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:27:15 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:27:59 GMT -6

Post by lsukev4 on Sept 8, 2024 10:29:32 GMT -6

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