[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

swla6 Tropical Storm Posts: 96	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:29:50 GMT -6 via mobile tony2001 and harpman like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by swla6 on Sept 8, 2024 10:29:50 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2024 10:22:38 GMT -6 harpman said: Are the 12z spaghetti plots out yet? free upload imge

roz
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,192

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:30:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:30:23 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:10:58 GMT -6 tcane said:

So that GFS path across Baton Rouge as a major. What would the impacts be for New Orleans area?

Of course things can change but as of now, this is the rainfall potential through Friday morning (9/13) and the wind gusts potential.

GFS 12z 120h QPF:

GFS 12z 120h wind gust potential:

Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 10:32:04 GMT -6 by roz

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:30:33 GMT -6 via mobile lsukev4 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:30:33 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2024 10:29:32 GMT -6 lsukev4 said: Might be redundant, but do we have a recon fix? Not yet. They’re going out later today.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

Kory
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Posts: 1,601

Location: Metairie, LA

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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:36:57 GMT -6 via mobile RowBear likes this

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Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:36:57 GMT -6

My guess is that recon is going to find multiple centers. This isn’t super organized right now but the continual bursts of convection to me is indicating that we will see organization of a more coherent single LLC soon.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 779	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:37:30 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:37:30 GMT -6 Looking like a night time event also on the gfs

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,802	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:39:41 GMT -6 via mobile roz and gentizzy - PRC, MS like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 10:39:41 GMT -6 Just hope it moves fast and gets in and out wherever it goes

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 779	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:42:43 GMT -6 via mobile fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA and houmalady like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:42:43 GMT -6 They just took off from Kessler

tcane
Category 1

Posts: 211

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:43:24 GMT -6 via mobile southpaw, roz, and 2 more like this

Quote

Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:43:24 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:30:23 GMT -6 roz said:

Sept 8, 2024 10:10:58 GMT -6 tcane said:

So that GFS path across Baton Rouge as a major. What would the impacts be for New Orleans area?

Of course things can change but as of now, this is the rainfall potential through Friday morning (9/13) and the wind gusts potential.

GFS 12z 120h QPF:

GFS 12z 120h wind gust potential:

This is great. We need more of this on the board during times like this. Instead of just….. wow look at that run. I say it all the time a lot of us will never be the ones to analyze runs but if we want more common people here the regulars need to realize you’re not just posting to people like yourself

loogaroo GCWX Supporter Posts: 731	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:44:00 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by loogaroo on Sept 8, 2024 10:44:00 GMT -6 That's a bad angle for a storm to come in regarding storm surge. The slosh maps are going to be interesting. I don't know the last major to come in like that.
	Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 10:44:52 GMT -6 by loogaroo

lsukev4 GCWX Supporter Posts: 623	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:49:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by lsukev4 on Sept 8, 2024 10:49:06 GMT -6 What's up with the GFS taking a turn north once it gets inland?
	I’m in Gretna

swla6
Tropical Storm

Posts: 96

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:56:40 GMT -6 via mobile lsukev4 likes this

Quote

Post by swla6 on Sept 8, 2024 10:56:40 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:49:06 GMT -6 lsukev4 said:

What's up with the GFS taking a turn north once it gets inland?

My guess is that when it starts weakening inland it feels the weakness and gets pulled more north

roz
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 1,192

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 10:57:41 GMT -6 lsukev4 likes this

Quote

Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:57:41 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 10:49:06 GMT -6 lsukev4 said:

What's up with the GFS taking a turn north once it gets inland?

If you look at the 500mb height normalized anomaly on Tropical Tidbits, it looks like it is the orientation of the high building to the north and east of it.
www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2024090812&fh=90

nolasim
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Location: Algiers-West Bank

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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 11:03:30 GMT -6 dutt928, roz, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by nolasim on Sept 8, 2024 11:03:30 GMT -6

From a standpoint of overall perspective, this isn't a "system" as of yet. Right now these models are doing just that.......modeling.

Also, everyone's fan favorite, the ICON, is coming in further west than the GFS (although a tad more east from its 06Z run) and strengthening it to a strong tropical storm at best.

Right now these models are simply projections. Of course the problem is that once we do have a center and some reliable data from the Hurricane Hunters, we have a short timeframe before landfall unlike a system coming from the Atlantic or the Caribbean. I'm confident everyone is prepared for whatever because it's hurricane season.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

tony2001 Category 3 Posts: 603	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 11:31:35 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by tony2001 on Sept 8, 2024 11:31:35 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2024 10:29:50 GMT -6 swla6 said: Sept 8, 2024 10:22:38 GMT -6 harpman said: Are the 12z spaghetti plots out yet? free upload imge They moved west. That's in line with the Euro which is showing a much weaker storm.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,364 Member is Online	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 11:37:50 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 11:37:50 GMT -6 Well I was always told if a storm stays weak it will go more west. Stronger to the east which is what GFS is showing. But until we have a defined center expect more shifts
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by swla6 on Sept 8, 2024 10:29:50 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:30:23 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:30:33 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 8, 2024 10:36:57 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:37:30 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 10:39:41 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 10:42:43 GMT -6

Post by tcane on Sept 8, 2024 10:43:24 GMT -6

Post by loogaroo on Sept 8, 2024 10:44:00 GMT -6

Post by lsukev4 on Sept 8, 2024 10:49:06 GMT -6

Post by swla6 on Sept 8, 2024 10:56:40 GMT -6

Post by roz on Sept 8, 2024 10:57:41 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 8, 2024 11:03:30 GMT -6

Post by tony2001 on Sept 8, 2024 11:31:35 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 11:37:50 GMT -6

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