[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Very much so a LA landfall...I would push all chips to the table

Reading a previous post that started out "Tonight's entensity forecast" emphasis on tonight's meaning not today's or most likely not tomorrow's made me think same scenerio time and again. Low confidence in storm tracks, at times 300+ mile tracking cones at only a few days from landfall, intensity *forecasts* constantly being adjusted, and we still can not be 100% confident of what will happen until it happens in real time. As great of country as this is, with the technology we have, this is the best we can do? Beginnning to think weather is so complicated that it cannot be forecasted with any degree of consistent accuracy.

LOL I was waiting for you to chime in on my comment 

Was it Sky or Zach who posted a few years ago that storms always pull a little to the east at or right before landfall?

I'm not sure I'd expect anything different though.  Wouldn't you adjust your prediction of who might win a football game as you see it unfolding?  Granted, that's kind of a trivial comparison, but as new information and data comes in, you'd want to make a prediction based on the latest in an always changing environment.  The chaos theory is a whole branch of mathematics that tries to model systems highly dependent on initial conditions and the resulting outcomes even with a the smallest changes in those initial conditions. 

On the topic of the error in NHC track, at 96 hours, it is a 150 mile radius from the center point and that is just a 2/3rds chance it ends up within that radius.  There is a 1/3rd chance it ends up outside of the cone.


Explanation of NHC Cone Link

Trying to catch up on everything. I just found out last night that we would have a home brew in the Gulf. I'm new to Biloxi. Just wondering at this point and the current forecast track, what kind of impacts would we be expecting on the MS gulf coast.