[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 19:53:41 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by homeymandeville on Sept 8, 2024 19:53:41 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 19:28:23 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said:

Sept 8, 2024 19:22:31 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Here we go.

Watch this thing continue eastward putting all of Louisiana on the good side and it goes into Mobile lol

Not going that far east unless the high completely breaks down. Don’t see that.

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 779	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:05:35 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 20:05:35 GMT -6 x.com/crownweather/status/1832961938399150450?s=46

ju
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 701

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:07:44 GMT -6 cajungal likes this

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Post by ju on Sept 8, 2024 20:07:44 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 19:48:18 GMT -6 Dat Fireman said:

Trying to catch up on everything. I just found out last night that we would have a home brew in the Gulf. I'm new to Biloxi. Just wondering at this point and the current forecast track, what kind of impacts would we be expecting on the MS gulf coast.

It really depends upon where the storm comes ashore. Being situated east of the storm is the "dirty" side which means, probably in this case for Biloxi, rain and maybe a bit of wind. You really just never know. Storms speed up, they slow down, etc. Tracks change. Katrina was a FL storm until she wasn't.
We live in Thibodaux and as Tropical Storm Allison was coming our way, we felt blessed that is wasn't a hurricane until it dropped 29-30 inches of rain on our town.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,364	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:10:53 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:10:53 GMT -6 I saw a post that Jim Cantore is headed to Lafayette
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

darius Bogalusa
Category 5

Posts: 2,231

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:12:35 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 20:12:35 GMT -6

hummmm what high are some of you referring to?......There is not much of a ridge there that will keep it from any shift east....Someone correct me if I'm wrong....I'm thinking intensity will determine how far east or west this thing will go...Or most importantly where the COC is located

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 779	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:13:51 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 20:13:51 GMT -6 He told Perillo “See you soon” so it might be true

goodlife
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 446

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:14:32 GMT -6 ju likes this

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Post by goodlife on Sept 8, 2024 20:14:32 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 17:51:49 GMT -6 kjchaisson said:

Yes it was wild. Dropping Tornadoes close to my parents home next to Annunziata Church on the East side

I grew up in that neighborhood too. We lived on Nixon. I was married and lived in Dularge but we went and stayed with my parents for Andrew.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,364	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:16:14 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:16:14 GMT -6 Sept 8, 2024 20:13:51 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish said: He told Perillo “See you soon” so it might be true That is post I am referring to
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,364

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 20:14:32 GMT -6 goodlife said:

Sept 8, 2024 17:51:49 GMT -6 kjchaisson said:

Yes it was wild. Dropping Tornadoes close to my parents home next to Annunziata Church on the East side

I grew up in that neighborhood too. We lived on Nixon. I was married and lived in Dularge but we went and stayed with my parents for Andrew.

We had a camp on Bayou Dularge near Lake Mechant. Andrew completely destroyed it. Bought a new camp after Andrew near sister lake Dularge. Damaged from Ida but still standing

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,974	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:18:02 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:18:02 GMT -6 After being on opposite ends 12-24 hrs ago is crazy how similar now the GFS and Euro are this evening. Odds have definitely gone up on future Edit: Francine in making landfall at least as a Cat 2.
	Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 20:26:33 GMT -6 by ndg

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,364

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:19:20 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:19:20 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 20:18:02 GMT -6 ndg said:

After being on opposite ends 12-24 hrs ago is crazy how similar now the GFS and Euro are this evening. Odds have definitely gone up on future Franklin in making landfall at least as a Cat 2.

Franklin? You mean Francine?

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

klstiger
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 442

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:19:34 GMT -6 via mobile cajungal likes this

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Post by klstiger on Sept 8, 2024 20:19:34 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Sept 8, 2024 20:14:32 GMT -6 goodlife said:

I grew up in that neighborhood too. We lived on Nixon. I was married and lived in Dularge but we went and stayed with my parents for Andrew.

We had a camp on Bayou Dularge near Lake Mechant. Andrew completely destroyed it. Bought a new camp after Andrew near sister lake Dularge. Damaged from Ida but still standing

We must be camp neighbors

Geaux Tigers

jimmycarl
Category 5

Posts: 1,514

Location: West Side Of The MS Coast

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:22:47 GMT -6 ju likes this

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Post by jimmycarl on Sept 8, 2024 20:22:47 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 19:41:55 GMT -6 lawxnut said:

Sept 8, 2024 19:31:05 GMT -6 jimmycarl said:

Reading a previous post that started out "Tonight's entensity forecast" emphasis on tonight's meaning not today's or most likely not tomorrow's made me think same scenerio time and again. Low confidence in storm tracks, at times 300+ mile tracking cones at only a few days from landfall, intensity *forecasts* constantly being adjusted, and we still can not be 100% confident of what will happen until it happens in real time. As great of country as this is, with the technology we have, this is the best we can do? Beginnning to think weather is so complicated that it cannot be forecasted with any degree of consistent accuracy.

Considering where we were 20 years ago with Katrina and such, i feel we've come a long way. We're 3 days away from a storm hitting louisiana, with models saying that all day.

Now the issue of accuracy down to the exact location, I doubt that ever will happen in our lifetime. People are wanting a literal "will this affect me in my yard in this location" type of accuracy that is just not there.

We have come a long way since Katrina and we are much better most of the time but seems like with the billions of $ that has been spent on technology over the las 19 yrs we should maybe be a little better. We have some extremely good mets so not sure what more can be done.

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,974

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:22:48 GMT -6 southernchelle likes this

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Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:22:48 GMT -6

Some high chances of rapid intensification by the SHIPS model between tomorrow night and Tuesday night.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  64% is   5.9 times climatological mean (10.9%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  46% is   6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  32% is   8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  45% is   9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  43% is   9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  24% is   4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 20:25:47 GMT -6 by ndg

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,974

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 20:23:37 GMT -6 cajungal and Bayou Medic like this

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Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:23:37 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 20:19:20 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Sept 8, 2024 20:18:02 GMT -6 ndg said:

After being on opposite ends 12-24 hrs ago is crazy how similar now the GFS and Euro are this evening. Odds have definitely gone up on future Franklin in making landfall at least as a Cat 2.

Franklin? You mean Francine?

Thanks, will fix it, lol

Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 20:24:38 GMT -6 by ndg

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 8, 2024 19:53:41 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 20:05:35 GMT -6

Post by ju on Sept 8, 2024 20:07:44 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:10:53 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 20:12:35 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 8, 2024 20:13:51 GMT -6

Post by goodlife on Sept 8, 2024 20:14:32 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:16:14 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:18:00 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:18:02 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 8, 2024 20:19:20 GMT -6

Post by klstiger on Sept 8, 2024 20:19:34 GMT -6

Post by jimmycarl on Sept 8, 2024 20:22:47 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:22:48 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 8, 2024 20:23:37 GMT -6

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