[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,282	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:01:27 GMT -6 via mobile ju and darius Bogalusa like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:01:27 GMT -6 I gassed up today and will get oil tomorrow. I’ve seen enough from model output to put me in preparation mode.

darius Bogalusa
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:03:57 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 22:03:57 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 22:00:16 GMT -6 prairievilledog said:

00Z GFS sticking to its guns has the center somewhere between Lafayette and Baton Rouge around midnight Wed night / Thur morning as a CAT 2. GFS has shifted more to the east maybe about 50 miles or so. Baton Rouge looks to get hammered if this trend continues and puts the metro New Orleans area closer to the core of the system as it passes NE. Good thing the storm does keep moving so it will not hang around to long in the area but will dump a large amount of rain and heavy winds. Power outages are guaranteed. I will be heading out tomorrow to get gas and some more oil for my portable generator. Can't afford a home generator.

agreed will start preps tomorrow also....the stores will be slammed as soon as the first school closure goes up lol.....Goodnight weather nerds...great discussion tonight...get some sleep looks like one of us us going to need it🥴

harpman GCWX Supporter Posts: 6,802	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:06:31 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 22:06:31 GMT -6 ICON and CMC are further west and weaker than the GFS.

prairievilledog
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:08:42 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish likes this

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Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:08:42 GMT -6

Based on the 00Z GFS the heavier rain totals have shifted to the east over the Baton Rouge area. Story tonight based on the latest guidance show a continuing threat to south central and the Baton Rouge to Lafayette corridor.

Will - Ascension Parish
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:10:52 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:10:52 GMT -6

True, definitely looking more and more grim for the Lafayette and Baton Rouge metros. Although, East shifts may continue and who knows, maybe this will be pointing at NOLA by the morning. How far east can this go? In other words, is the ridge to our east staying put and blocking it from going past a certain point or is it moving too?

Last Edit: Sept 8, 2024 22:11:42 GMT -6 by Will - Ascension Parish

prairievilledog
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:12:09 GMT -6

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Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:12:09 GMT -6

While the ICON and CMC do show a more west solution, it is of note that the CMC has shifted well east from its last run. The prior run had it hitting the upper Texas coast around the TX/LA border now its showing a landfall just east of Cameron and near the west side of Vermillion Bay so another model is now showing a LA landfall.

prairievilledog
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:17:10 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish likes this

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Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:17:10 GMT -6

Earlier it was posted that the High Pressure system over the Florida straits should keep it from getting to far to the east but who knows what the hurricane gods have in store. The trend east might continue overnight and we maybe looking at a landfall farther east say Grand Isle but I would not put a bet on that solution but I have seen wilder solutions over the years. I will say that in recent years the models have gotten better so a large swing that far east would be remote but the NHC in their 10pm discussion did say confidence in the track forecast at this time is greater than normal since a definite center has yet to form.

csaccountant - Metairie/NOLA
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:17:43 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this

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Post by csaccountant - Metairie/NOLA on Sept 8, 2024 22:17:43 GMT -6

Please don't laugh too hard at this, but is anyone making hotel reservations that live in the NOLA area? Kinda just in case. We're also on the side with all the tornados.
Uggggg.

Will - Ascension Parish
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:21:33 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this

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Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:21:33 GMT -6

I don’t think anyone here would laugh at you for asking that. Model support is pretty high for a cat 2 maybe a 3 hitting and putting NOLA on the bad side so I don’t think it’s that crazy to do, especially if you live in a trailer or you don’t have a generator.

Nathan Category 1 Posts: 125	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:23:57 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nathan on Sept 8, 2024 22:23:57 GMT -6 x.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1832996173583614289?t=LEG0XPPaniZBG1f0aipzWg&s=19 here's the latest from the nws of new orleans.

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,037	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:34:52 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 8, 2024 22:34:52 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:35:22 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by jdschlum-bedico/village of bo on Sept 8, 2024 22:35:22 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 22:06:31 GMT -6 harpman said:

ICON and CMC are further west and weaker than the GFS.

How is icon more west the 0z icon shows just west of Morgan city where the 6z icon showed it going in near vermillion bay

harpman
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[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:39:02 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 22:39:02 GMT -6

Sept 8, 2024 22:35:22 GMT -6 jdschlum-bedico/village of bo said:

Sept 8, 2024 22:06:31 GMT -6 harpman said:

ICON and CMC are further west and weaker than the GFS.

How is icon more west the 0z icon shows just west of Morgan city where the 6z icon showed it going in near vermillion bay

Just reporting what I observed.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,282	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:40:03 GMT -6 via mobile ju likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:40:03 GMT -6 The current ICON run is damn near identical to the previous run in location.

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,282	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 8, 2024 22:44:42 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:44:42 GMT -6 Hurricane models are running their 0z solutions now.

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:01:27 GMT -6

Post by darius Bogalusa on Sept 8, 2024 22:03:57 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 22:06:31 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:08:42 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:10:52 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:12:09 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 8, 2024 22:17:10 GMT -6

Post by csaccountant - Metairie/NOLA on Sept 8, 2024 22:17:43 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:21:33 GMT -6

Post by Nathan on Sept 8, 2024 22:23:57 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 8, 2024 22:34:52 GMT -6

Post by jdschlum-bedico/village of bo on Sept 8, 2024 22:35:22 GMT -6

Post by harpman on Sept 8, 2024 22:39:02 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:40:03 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Sept 8, 2024 22:44:42 GMT -6

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