[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Go back and see what I said. I said they were west of the GFS.

Didn’t realize the 18z EC-AFIS has the eye pass right over downtown NOLA.

Edit: maybe Kenner to be exact

I was just looking at the HAFS-A and it has 958mb on hour 51. Not liking the trends tonight on possible intensity on this storm. I’m outside the New Orleans area in bayou gauche. Will be watching this closely. Hopefully, later today we will know more details.

1am advisory - doesn't seem the NHC has changed where they think the storm will go ashore.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 090542
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

...INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS BY
MID-WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.7W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Hurricane, Storm Surge, and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be
required for portions of the Louisiana and Upper Texas coast later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was estimated to be near
latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.7 West. The system is moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move
just offshore of the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday,
and approach the Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm
today, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on
Tuesday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before it
reaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area along the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas
beginning Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the Texas coast and into Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall
would lead to the risk of flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Guess the NHC is being conservative. GFS, Euro, and Icon all show landfall around the central LA Gulf coast. The next NHC Forecast advisory is at 4am. We'll see if they'll shift the storm east.

Agreed. Don't like it but completely expected it.